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Post by miedosoracing on Mar 8, 2011 19:59:17 GMT
Anyone know the actual rating of the Carrington?> Is it possible, that it wasn't just because it was big, but it also may have been so powerful, because maybe it had days like today and yesterday, when there were a ton of M class pre flares, that paithed the way? That the break down of our protection was the reason it hit us so hard. Just wonderin
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Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 9, 2011 2:44:07 GMT
Anyone know the actual rating of the Carrington?> Is it possible, that it wasn't just because it was big, but it also may have been so powerful, because maybe it had days like today and yesterday, when there were a ton of M class pre flares, that paithed the way? That the break down of our protection was the reason it hit us so hard. Just wonderin My colleague and I have collected what is known about the Carrington flare: www.leif.org/research/1859%20Storm%20-%20Extreme%20Space%20Weather.pdf |
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Post by miedosoracing on Mar 9, 2011 15:51:24 GMT
Thanks. I had read that a while back, but now that I've learned more, it makes more sense.  Either way, it now I question it even more. In your analysis, it seems that yes, it was big, but it wasn't a X40 or anything like that. Atleast what I'm understanding. But I wonder if it is one of three different things that made it such a big one. First, about a month ago, we had a huge hovering gas over the sun, it was like 700,000 km or something. Anyways, are we not 100% sure, that maybe the Carrington was really one of those. Remember, when it let loose? 2nd, Maybe like I had originally posted, maybe multiple M's before that blazed a path to run right through our atmosphere? Or lastly, maybe a really long X flare, not necessarily big, but maybe a X10-20 but really long duration. I am just theorizing, but seems to me, that with your analysis, and my hunches, that maybe Carrington wasn't so big. Just the things that went along with it, made it smack our bottoms when it got to earth like a newborn baby. LOL. |
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Post by jcarels on Mar 9, 2011 22:42:23 GMT
The Carrington event was the biggest event in the last 500 years. So yes, it was big!
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Post by miedosoracing on Mar 10, 2011 0:24:23 GMT
The Carrington event was the biggest event in the last 500 years. So yes, it was big! I'd argue with that. It was not the biggest event. Do some research on the data. It doesn't correlate to a massive one. There's more to it. Most likely between a X10-X20 in my opinion. |
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Post by af4ex on Mar 10, 2011 2:40:04 GMT
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Post by miedosoracing on Mar 10, 2011 16:36:43 GMT
He was watching, what sounds like 2 sun spots. It is said there were multiple solar flares before that. So, just because we had more happen here, how do we know it was more powerful. I'd say the X45 that happened that didn't hit us, was probably worse. My opinion, is that things helped that one hit us harder, but it wasn't a stronger flare. Unfortunately, no one can prove this. I'm just looking at data, and it seems to me, that it is possible our atmosphere opened up from being pounded earlier, maybe two flares at the same time, or multiple things that helped it happen. But I'm just not sold on it was just a huge flare. And I'll be the first to admit I could be 100% wrong too. I'm just sayin, that things could contribute to what happened, that we don't understand. I've watched 14 M class and 1 X flare happen in 3 days. That was impressive. If the X1.5 was more like a X10 and the M flares hit us hard right before the X was coming through, I would assume that some really bad things would happen.
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Post by miedosoracing on Sept 29, 2011 15:52:14 GMT
I never got a difinitive answer, and I'd really like to know, at one number X do the lights go out in Georgia? Is there any hard X20+ number we can calculate? Anyone? Any of the regulars have a X factor that they feel is the "big one?" Head home and lock up, time?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Sept 29, 2011 16:55:18 GMT
I never got a difinitive answer, and I'd really like to know, at one number X do the lights go out in Georgia? Is there any hard X20+ number we can calculate? Anyone? Any of the regulars have a X factor that they feel is the "big one?" Head home and lock up, time? The X-ray flux is not the important factor for effects on the ground. The strength and direction of the magnetic field in the CME is what to watch for. In addition to the weaker influence of the speed and density. In terms of effect on the ground [and in near geospace], the Carrington event is the biggest we know of, so far. |
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Post by justmeanu on Sept 29, 2011 20:23:27 GMT
The thing that worries me is how prepared are the pollies if another of these occur. Pollies can't seem to decide how to tie their shoe laces. Remember we would only have two or three days to isolate the grid, can you imagine how catastrophic that would be. Do they realise power grids will need to be isolated very quickly? who would make the decision to turn off? it would cost trillions just to do that, and if they can't make that decision we all go back to the stone age for a while. I have a feeling it's just like the school crossing, have to wait for a few kids to die first.
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Post by miedosoracing on Sept 29, 2011 21:12:54 GMT
The thing that worries me is how prepared are the pollies if another of these occur. Pollies can't seem to decide how to tie their shoe laces. Remember we would only have two or three days to isolate the grid, can you imagine how catastrophic that would be. Do they realise power grids will need to be isolated very quickly? who would make the decision to turn off? it would cost trillions just to do that, and if they can't make that decision we all go back to the stone age for a while. I have a feeling it's just like the school crossing, have to wait for a few kids to die first. I am not as worried about that, I'm worried about Nuke plants being shut down due to no energy. Even if the generators work, it will be from 7 - 30 days before they shut down cooling. |
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Post by justmeanu on Sept 30, 2011 1:17:48 GMT
Holy moses I'm worried about it. With the nukes plants their stand by power is designed to cover that situation, unless of course you have a tsunami bigger than you expect. Building nuke plants on a fault line is not the brightest of ideas either.
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Post by miedosoracing on Sept 30, 2011 23:22:50 GMT
Holy moses I'm worried about it. With the nukes plants their stand by power is designed to cover that situation, unless of course you have a tsunami bigger than you expect. Building nuke plants on a fault line is not the brightest of ideas either. What do they have designed about no electricity and no fuel being delivered for the generators, if they still work? Like I've stated, it is estimated by nuke watch groups, that they will be online cooling for only 7-30 days, then the generators go down. By the way, I'm talking about the spent fuel rods, sorry I didn't clarify. |
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Either way, it now I question it even more. In your analysis, it seems that yes, it was big, but it wasn't a X40 or anything like that. Atleast what I'm understanding. But I wonder if it is one of three different things that made it such a big one. First, about a month ago, we had a huge hovering gas over the sun, it was like 700,000 km or something. Anyways, are we not 100% sure, that maybe the Carrington was really one of those. Remember, when it let loose? 2nd, Maybe like I had originally posted, maybe multiple M's before that blazed a path to run right through our atmosphere? Or lastly, maybe a really long X flare, not necessarily big, but maybe a X10-20 but really long duration. I am just theorizing, but seems to me, that with your analysis, and my hunches, that maybe Carrington wasn't so big. Just the things that went along with it, made it smack our bottoms when it got to earth like a newborn baby. LOL. 
