Solar Activity and Flying Q

[annaedu]

Hello,

I am new here (but have been lurking for awhile). I'm not a scientist by trade, SC24 is just an avid interest of mine for the past few years.

I was hoping one of the scientists here could help me with a layman question? I just cant seem to find answers anywhere.

Where/whom can I check/contact (Ive checked noaa outlooks and advisories ect.) to get accurate predictions for solar activity for this coming '11 spring? (march, april, may, june). I have a few transatlantic (US-Germany) flights scheduled and Im pregnant (3 weeks). Im concerned about radiation from CME's, flares, ect during flights that would affect me.

From what Ive read, its the flares, CME's from the sunspots facing earth (1163,1164, 1165, 1166, 1169) that would cause the increased radiation problem on a high altitude flight, not eruptions from sunspots elsewhere. I havent found a site that explains which activity would have an affect on air passengers.

Thanks and I hope I havent offended anyone with such a basic question-

Anna

[Bob k6tr]

Anna

Flying in all but a few cases is safe during a flare. In a hand full of case the most powerful of flares can generate a GLE (Ground Level Proton Event). For this to happen the spot group that generates the flare has to be positioned just right on the face of the sun. If this does occur Protons Stream to the ground at the earth's magnetic poles. The rest of the planet is protected by the Van Allen Belt. Likewise, there airplane you will be flying on is made out of aluminum which will also protect you. There are radiation hazard concerns being raised about Boeing' s new 787 Dreamliner that is made out of carbon composites but that plane is not in service.

The stars have to align inorder for this to be a concern.

1) You need a flare, a powerful one at that
2) Your flight needs to take a Polar Route. (New York to Shanghai, Seattle to London, Houston to Bombay)
3) You need to be flying in an aircraft made out of something other than aluminum.

To answer your question directly. The information you seek can not be furnished with the accuracy you need much more than a couple of days in advance. The sun rotates with a period of approximately 27 so you can get a feel for what might happen if you check NOAA 4 weeks ahead of time. Again the odds that you or your child will receive a harmful radiation dose is extremely low. Most of the professional concern about airline travel is in conjunction with the cockpit crew who spend many hours of their lives exposed to these elements.

[annaedu]

Bob,

Thanks so much for taking the time to reply and explain. I will continue to check Noaa-the site has lot of info, but is kind of confusing to the layman. In your opinion, are there any flags to watch for?

Thanks for providing a great forum--Ive learned a lot here.

Anna

[Kevin VE3EN]

Welcome aboard Anna

Kevin

[Kevin VE3EN]

No Pun was intended

[Bob k6tr]

Mar 10, 2011 3:01:00 GMT annaedu said:

Bob,

Thanks so much for taking the time to reply and explain. I will continue to check Noaa-the site has lot of info, but is kind of confusing to the layman. In your opinion, are there any flags to watch for?

Thanks for providing a great forum--Ive learned a lot here.

Anna

Anna the only thing you have influence over outside of booking is to make sure you select a route that doesn' fly over the poles. Actually very few passenger routes do. The only three aircraft that possesses the capability to exploit a Polar Route is the Boeing 777, the Airbus A-340 and the Airbus A-380. If you are flying to europe from the West Coast don't fly direct. Fly to the East Coast then hop the ocean. Do the same if you are flying to Asia from the East Coast.

Bob

[annaedu]

Thanks Bob I appreciate the reply and you have put my mind at ease. Sorry I dint reply sooner, I was engrossed in the main solar cycle 24 thread . This forum is amazing--I should have been an scientist instead of a designer .

Best,
Anna

[annaedu]

Hi Bob - Starting to panic here. Am flying NYC-Frankfurt on the evening of 3/30 and they are predicting M and possible xclass flares: www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

I am traveling with my 13month old and and am pregnant (very early)--would you advise to change my flight a couple of days later?

Thank you very much for your advise...

[Bob k6tr]

Mar 28, 2011 3:27:50 GMT annaedu said:

Hi Bob - Starting to panic here. Am flying NYC-Frankfurt on the evening of 3/30 and they are predicting M and possible xclass flares: www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

I am traveling with my 13 month old and and am pregnant (very early)--would you advise to change my flight a couple of days later?

Thank you very much for your advise...

On that route ? NO

If I were you I would be far more concerned about what is going on in Fukushima Japan. Unit 3 is fueled with Plutonium Oxide Fuel which is the nastiest substance known to Human Beings. Tests were done with that stuff involving beagle puppies. And what was found is there is no dose small enough that it did NOT cause cancer. Radioactive material is getting up into the jetstream and minute amounts been found across the US even as far east as Germany.

I got off an airplane Friday and as I exitted I stopped to ask the flight crew a couple of questions regarding the matter and they replied that the FAA has not issued any notices to Air Carriers to step up inspections of aircraft air filtration systems. So right now things seem to be OK but the situation in Japan could deteriorate dramaticly over the coming weeks. And it sounds like they may not get out of the woods over there for another month or two. Keeping an eye on what the news media is reporting about Unit 3 in Fukushima. If you want more reassurance get in touch with the FAA before your flight to see if any notices to Carriers or NOTAMs to Airmen have gone out.

[annaedu]

Thanks for this point-Im going to call the FAA today. What is NOTAMS? Im flying Lufthansa--would it be prudent to call them or the FAA?

Best,

[Bob k6tr]

Mar 28, 2011 19:23:23 GMT annaedu said:

What is NOTAMS?

Notice To Airmen Regarding High Altitude Jetstream containg Radioactive Particulate Material. More than likely they will issue an alert to the carriers first.

Mar 28, 2011 19:23:23 GMT annaedu said:

Im flying Lufthansa--would it be prudent to call them or the FAA?

Best,

The Carrier has a vested economic interest in seeing that you, and every other passenger, gets on that plane. They will tell you only if absolutely necessary.

If you want to continue this discussion please PM me.