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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 16, 2011 14:04:36 GMT
I don't think so. We know that solar activity now is at the level it was around 1900, so one would expect TSI also to be. My estimate of TSI is this:  I don't think there was a 'rise' from 1900 to 1950 I also think their scale is wrong. It is not W/m^2, but perhaps in % of whole TSI. |
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Post by hairball on Aug 16, 2011 15:14:48 GMT
Many thanks. I worded my question badly, the graph is of radiative forcing, so accounting for geometry and albedo it looks right based on Lean's reconstruction.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 16, 2011 18:47:09 GMT
Many thanks. I worded my question badly, the graph is of radiative forcing, so accounting for geometry and albedo it looks right based on Lean's reconstruction. Not even Lean thinks her 2000 reconstruction is valid. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 17, 2011 4:37:26 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard:
I have searched your lief.org.research site and, (I am prob blind), I can not find a paper that I know you were going to have published in the very recent past about a new TSI re-contruction of the Holocene, or at least the past 400-500 years.
Would you be so kind as to provide us with a link to at least the draft or the published paper?
With what is going on with the sun at present, it would provide a valuable reference to what one might expect in the near future. Unless of course, the sun has gone totally different. Which L&P seem to be showing.
Thank you very much for your time.
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 17, 2011 7:20:33 GMT
I note the drop in TSI peak around 1910, is that where we are headed now? Are we headed for a lower TSI if the L&P effect really kicks in?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 17, 2011 13:16:14 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard: I have searched your lief.org.research site and, (I am prob blind), I can not find a paper that I know you were going to have published in the very recent past about a new TSI re-contruction of the Holocene, or at least the past 400-500 years. Would you be so kind as to provide us with a link to at least the draft or the published paper? With what is going on with the sun at present, it would provide a valuable reference to what one might expect in the near future. Unless of course, the sun has gone totally different. Which L&P seem to be showing. Thank you very much for your time. I'm not in the very long-term TSI business. Only back to ~1700:  And this is unpublished work [that I do for my own perspective]. I'm not participating in the TSI food fight (for now ;D ). |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 17, 2011 13:18:09 GMT
I note the drop in TSI peak around 1910, is that where we are headed now? Are we headed for a lower TSI if the L&P effect really kicks in? I think SC24 will be like SC14 (1901-1912). L&P might actually increase TSI [fewer black spots], but that is wild speculation at the moment. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 17, 2011 13:30:30 GMT
Thank you Dr. Svalgaard. Sure looks like there is lots to eat in the TSI food fight.
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Post by solarlux on Aug 17, 2011 13:58:34 GMT
From space.com: "NASA will hold a press conference Thursday (Aug. 18) to discuss 'new details about the structure of solar storms and the impact they have on Earth,' space agency officials said in a statement." (http://www.space.com/12649-nasa-solar-storm-tracking-briefing-thursday.html)
Any guesses at what new discovery/hypothesis they will be announcing?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 17, 2011 14:45:58 GMT
From space.com: "NASA will hold a press conference Thursday (Aug. 18) to discuss 'new details about the structure of solar storms and the impact they have on Earth,' space agency officials said in a statement." (http://www.space.com/12649-nasa-solar-storm-tracking-briefing-thursday.html) Any guesses at what new discovery/hypothesis they will be announcing? some rehash of what has been known for decades, but hyped as new. Usual NASA hype, IMHO. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 24, 2011 7:26:29 GMT
How well can we predict coming flares based on the complexity of the sunspot/region?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 24, 2011 13:15:15 GMT
How well can we predict coming flares based on the complexity of the sunspot/region? We can predict a probability at the moment. With SDO we can monitor the build-up of twisted magnetic flux and the goal is to use that to predict flares, but it is like predicting when a thundercloud will issue a lightning strike. Then, on the other hand, a big twisted region flares many times [like the thundercloud]. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 25, 2011 6:26:49 GMT
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 25, 2011 10:10:26 GMT
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 25, 2011 20:10:25 GMT
Then do we have enough data to add this to L & P charts? Namely, is their enough magnetism to form spots we can't "see"? OR that may be a dumb idea... |
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