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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 26, 2011 1:13:50 GMT
Then do we have enough data to add this to L & P charts? Namely, is their enough magnetism to form spots we can't "see"? OR that may be a dumb idea... The F10.7 flux shows that there is enough magnetism. The L&P effect may be that the mechanism that concentrates that into visible sunspots is now less effective. This is speculation. We don't really know yet. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 27, 2011 2:22:40 GMT
Interesting.
I guess the question is then, will this new technique "find" sunspots that do not make it to the surface and thus find "weaker" sunspots magnetically or does it just find sunspots that will always eventually make it to the surface, it just finds them sooner, before they emerge?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 27, 2011 4:55:14 GMT
Interesting. I guess the question is then, will this new technique "find" sunspots that do not make it to the surface and thus find "weaker" sunspots magnetically or does it just find sunspots that will always eventually make it to the surface, it just finds them sooner, before they emerge? This is very new. We don't now yet. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 27, 2011 14:36:28 GMT
Sorry if it is too new for this too, but does this technique provide another measurement of sunspot magnetism or power, thus providing another measurement to see if sunspots are weakening (ala L& P)?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 27, 2011 15:04:15 GMT
Sorry if it is too new for this too, but does this technique provide another measurement of sunspot magnetism or power, thus providing another measurement to see if sunspots are weakening (ala L& P)? Yes, I think it will be helpful, but, again, it is new, so we need to work a bit more on it. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 27, 2011 16:33:44 GMT
Has your paper been accepted for publication? Any word on all the rest of the papers from the symposia that talked about the possible coming solar quiet period?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 27, 2011 20:08:03 GMT
Has your paper been accepted for publication? Any word on all the rest of the papers from the symposia that talked about the possible coming solar quiet period? Rejected, because of being 'too technical for the general audience' so Science suggested submitting to a 'specialty journal' but would like very much to have a link to the article when published. Right now, we are a bit busy so have put the paper on the back burner for the moment. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Aug 27, 2011 21:07:43 GMT
Too bad, Science has gone down such a bad road lately, as has Nature with all their specialty journals. What happened to publishing the best papers? I have seen alot of science, done a good piece, and have seen the mountaintop, your science and this finding is top notch.
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Post by belric on Aug 28, 2011 13:52:00 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard,
The sunspot 1275 is situated only 7 degrees north of the equator. Does it mean that the maximum of activity of this solar cycle is reached, one or two years earlier than expected? Or does one swallow not make a summer?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 28, 2011 14:38:50 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, The sunspot 1275 is situated only 7 degrees north of the equator. Does it mean that the maximum of activity of this solar cycle is reached, one or two years earlier than expected? Or does one swallow not make a summer? One swallow does not make a summer, however, there are other signs that maximum may be arriving earlier than predicted, e.g. that the polar fields are already reversing in the North. |
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Post by skypilot on Aug 29, 2011 15:00:30 GMT
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 29, 2011 16:18:47 GMT
Her model has been shown not to work for prediction of cycle 24, so we should not put to much credence on her speculations. |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Aug 29, 2011 23:08:20 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard, The sunspot 1275 is situated only 7 degrees north of the equator. Does it mean that the maximum of activity of this solar cycle is reached, one or two years earlier than expected? Or does one swallow not make a summer? One swallow does not make a summer, however, there are other signs that maximum may be arriving earlier than predicted, e.g. that the polar fields are already reversing in the North. Hello Dr. Svalgaard, Once again thank you for making yourself available for questions. I have been busy for awhile now (seems like for ever) and have only been checking in here from time to time, so I hope my question is not a repeat... if it is, just slap me around and I'll go back to my cave. :-) Anyway, your post made me wonder exactly how tied together are the hemispheres of the sun. We have all been watching and waiting for cycle 24 to really get rolling, and most of the action is in the north. Furthermore, just using my mark one eyeball, the action in the north appears to have migrated closer to the equator then the southern hemisphere. Could the North be cycling faster then the south? How extreme can the differences become? |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 30, 2011 5:24:03 GMT
One swallow does not make a summer, however, there are other signs that maximum may be arriving earlier than predicted, e.g. that the polar fields are already reversing in the North. Hello Dr. Svalgaard, Once again thank you for making yourself available for questions. I have been busy for awhile now (seems like for ever) and have only been checking in here from time to time, so I hope my question is not a repeat... if it is, just slap me around and I'll go back to my cave. :-) Anyway, your post made me wonder exactly how tied together are the hemispheres of the sun. We have all been watching and waiting for cycle 24 to really get rolling, and most of the action is in the north. Furthermore, just using my mark one eyeball, the action in the north appears to have migrated closer to the equator then the southern hemisphere. Could the North be cycling faster then the south? How extreme can the differences become? They are often out of sync, see e.g. here: sidc.oma.be/html/wnosuf.html |
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Post by sunspotboy on Aug 31, 2011 7:32:43 GMT
Dr Svalgaard
Measurements The Wilcox Solar Observatory
I have seen on several occasions that they adjust their previous measurements!
2011:06:27_21h:07m:13s -20N 33S -27Avg 20nhz filt: -8Nf 43Sf -26Avgf
2011:07:07_21h:07m:13s -25N 30S -27Avg 20nhz filt: -8Nf 43Sf -25Avgf
2011:07:17_21h:07m:13s -28N 29S -28Avg 20nhz filt: -7Nf 43Sf -25Avgf
2011:07:27_21h:07m:13s -27N 30S -29Avg 20nhz filt: -7Nf 44Sf -25Avgf
2011:08:06_21h:07m:13s -34N 28S -31Avg 20nhz filt: -7Nf 44Sf -25Avgf
=> last week 20 nhz from 07:27 was 5!
also the other dates wher changed!
What's the reason behind this?
Thought these where precise numbers...
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