loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
|
Post by loly on Jul 29, 2011 2:01:22 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by randwick on Jul 29, 2011 4:18:14 GMT
.
"Do you expect that we'd see solar flares and CMEs emanating from invisible spot regions during the cycle maxima of a 'Maunder Minimum'-like reoccurrence?"
" Yes I do, but it is hard to put numbers on it "
It's going to be an exciting time watching nothing , sort off ,
a great minima ( if it happen ) is going to be like observation during a solar eclipse
Is there some thoughts on observing low contrast spots ?
What others data could be obtained during this rare occurence ?
|
|
|
|
Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on Jul 29, 2011 19:49:21 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 29, 2011 21:06:47 GMT
At least there is something happening.
|
|
loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
|
Post by loly on Jul 30, 2011 3:18:53 GMT
FLARE M9.3 RA1261 2011-07-30 2:09 UTC
|
|
|
|
Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on Jul 30, 2011 13:36:43 GMT
Great flare today class-M9.3 near to X scale from the region 11261. The big flare follow 9 c-class flares until now. Observation at CaK line today with CORONADO MAXSCOPE SM 70mm under medium seeing. Three great region with very large sunspots. Very strong faculaes. One more region without number giving sunspot. West of the region 11260. www.solar-007.eu/site/ |
|
|
|
Post by Maui on Aug 1, 2011 5:47:57 GMT
WOW!!
The July 31 sunspot number is 128!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Aug 1, 2011 14:19:26 GMT
@maui
> WOW!! ...
May be that Cycle 24 is getting ready for its next big spike, following the general crescendo pattern established by Cycle 14, a spike every 6 months or so, each getting bigger until the solar max. If so, I'd expect this spike to exceed the February spike (with maybe a hiccup on the way up).
|
|
|
|
Post by Maui on Aug 1, 2011 14:54:17 GMT
But then, just a "spike"? That implies activity will decline before it increases...
|
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Aug 1, 2011 15:07:29 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Bob k6tr on Aug 1, 2011 16:01:56 GMT
WOW!! The July 31 sunspot number is 128!!! What's even more interesting is the Sunspot count is exceeding the SFI Number. This is happening quite frequently during Cycle 24 and in the process rendering conventional formulas that correlate Sunspot Count to SFI useless. In previous cycles this phenomenon would happen a half dozen times. But the frequency of these events during this cycle would seem to indicate that something inside the sun is indeed changing. |
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Aug 1, 2011 16:09:29 GMT
@bob/k6tr
> ... Sunspot count is exceeding the SFI Number. ...
Yes, somewhat unexpected because the Livingston-Penn theory is predicting a decline in sunspots vs. SFI. Dr. Svalgaard?
|
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Aug 1, 2011 18:06:12 GMT
@bob/k6tr > ... Sunspot count is exceeding the SFI Number. ... Yes, somewhat unexpected because the Livingston-Penn theory is predicting a decline in sunspots vs. SFI. Dr. Svalgaard? Let me take a stab at answering my own question: the Sun is a noisy place, so what we're seeing are some noisy "outliers", the L&P trend remains unaffected. Did I get that right, Leif? |
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 1, 2011 22:32:05 GMT
@bob/k6tr > ... Sunspot count is exceeding the SFI Number. ... Yes, somewhat unexpected because the Livingston-Penn theory is predicting a decline in sunspots vs. SFI. Dr. Svalgaard? Let me take a stab at answering my own question: the Sun is a noisy place, so what we're seeing are some noisy "outliers", the L&P trend remains unaffected. Did I get that right, Leif? Yes. L&P still looks good, and small cycles are often very irregular. |
|
|
|
Post by belric on Aug 2, 2011 7:25:46 GMT
The southern hemisphere has largely died out, even on the backside. Only a couple hotspots... In July 2011 there were 14 spotless days in the Southern hemisphere while there was none in the Northern part. I made a survey of the solar activity per hemisphere, based on activity itself and on spotless days. See www.astronomie.be/rik.gheysens/fietshoorn/solar/solar_activity_hemisphere.pdfBoth graphs give a rather significant view of the evolution of solar activity but only as long as activity has not reached a certain value. We see that activity in the southern hemisphere has not yet reached that threshold. For what it is worth?! ... |
|
