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Post by brightgarlick on Jul 1, 2011 2:10:40 GMT
 Hi Folks : Just wondering if you would all consider signing this petition to prepare the grid for severe space weather : www.gopetition.com/petitions/prepare-the-grid-for-severe-space-weather.html . Please tell others about this issue and encourage them to also sign. Thanks Kevin for all the fantastic work that you do here on Solarham. I've been following you for many years now and really appreciate your effort. I've given you as many plugs as I can over the years and will try to make a donation, as soon as my current health probs settle down. Best wishes for 2011. Thanks everyone. May all beings experience great contentedness in 2011. Bright Garlick ( otherworldyencounters.wordpress.com/ )
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Post by Kevin VE3EN on Sept 3, 2011 17:02:07 GMT
I know here in Canada after the damage to the power grid in Quebec during a 1989 Solar Storm, they did many improvements to the system. That was a big wakeup call.
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bop
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Post by bop on Sept 4, 2011 19:50:03 GMT
I know here in Canada after the damage to the power grid in Quebec during a 1989 Solar Storm, they did many improvements to the system. That was a big wakeup call. You mean "Quebec", not the ROC (or "Rest of Canada"). I've learned that the lawyers at the top have kaiboshed any preventative shutdown even if we were %100 certain of GIC due to liability issues. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Sept 4, 2011 20:25:07 GMT
I am a US attorney, but I cannot believe that if authorities warned and everyone was agreed that shutting down was the best way to save damage to the grid and electrical devices, that this would lead to liability. What is the alternative? Letting everyone's stuff explode?
The law does sometimes come to strange outcomes, but this is more like a hurricane evacuation in an emergency and unlikely to lead to liability if the authorities are aligned with the provider.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Sept 4, 2011 22:45:42 GMT
I am a US attorney, but I cannot believe that if authorities warned and everyone was agreed that shutting down was the best way to save damage to the grid and electrical devices, that this would lead to liability. What is the alternative? Letting everyone's stuff explode? The law does sometimes come to strange outcomes, but this is more like a hurricane evacuation in an emergency and unlikely to lead to liability if the authorities are aligned with the provider. I do believe this is a liability issue. If things blow up, it is an act of God and nobody is liable. If things don't blow up, but the shutdown leads to economic loss people will sue. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Sept 4, 2011 23:06:51 GMT
It is not quite that simple Leif. Although you are right for a normal event where an electric utility would shut down and damage something through their own negligence. That said, if the shutdown were to occur in the scenario here it would be much like the shutdown of electricity recently in New York City sections for Irene - since the government asked the power to be shutdown for the public good it is highly unlikely the electric company could be held liable as they would essentially fall under the sovereign immunity of the United States if they were so ordered (this is why electric companies and the like WANT the gov to step in and order them to shut down). Also, I am not sure even if sued they wouldn't have a strong defense under the intent section of most tort systems: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_tort_law (it actually is hard to win a tort case for economic harm in a case like this). The law does make more sense than most folks give it credit for. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Sept 5, 2011 3:46:56 GMT
It is not quite that simple Leif. Although you are right for a normal event where an electric utility would shut down and damage something through their own negligence. That said, if the shutdown were to occur in the scenario here it would be much like the shutdown of electricity recently in New York City sections for Irene - since the government asked the power to be shutdown for the public good it is highly unlikely the electric company could be held liable as they would essentially fall under the sovereign immunity of the United States if they were so ordered (this is why electric companies and the like WANT the gov to step in and order them to shut down). Also, I am not sure even if sued they wouldn't have a strong defense under the intent section of most tort systems: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_tort_law (it actually is hard to win a tort case for economic harm in a case like this). The law does make more sense than most folks give it credit for. Perhaps, although it remains to be tested. The EMP Defense Council is looking in to pass legislation to cope with statistically-predictable events: www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5331277/emp-defense-council-sm-highlights-calculable-risks-of-solar-cycle-peak-in-2013 |
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Post by justsomeguy on Sept 5, 2011 4:00:36 GMT
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Post by justsomeguy on Sept 5, 2011 4:03:31 GMT
I also have real problems with this section, can you imagine suing the board of a company that happened to have an office in the World Trade Center on 9/11 or worse yet bringing criminal charges akin to the above? I can't.
"In the case of EMP events, void by statute the "business judgment rule" in American case law that may shield board members from liability in the case of statistically-predictable and cataclysmic 100-year solar flares and nuclear-based EMP acts of war that should be expected by a rational actor -- just as the 11 September 2001 destruction of the World Trade Center should have been expected."
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Post by justsomeguy on Sept 5, 2011 4:10:14 GMT
As an aside, isn't the risk of a major EMP event lower this cycle because of the magnetism drop per spot found by Livingston and Penn and yourself? If magnetism drives this thing we shouldn't be in a better place now because of L&P and better yet if we are entering a minima, right?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Sept 5, 2011 12:11:01 GMT
As an aside, isn't the risk of a major EMP event lower this cycle because of the magnetism drop per spot found by Livingston and Penn and yourself? If magnetism drives this thing we shouldn't be in a better place now because of L&P and better yet if we are entering a minima, right? It should perhaps be lower, but not necessarily. In www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf we note: [para 10] "Average space weather might be milder with decreased solar activity, but the extreme events that dominate technological effects are not expected to disappear. In fact, they may become more common. Two of the eight strongest storms in the last 150 years occurred during solar cycle 14 (Rmax = 64) [Cliver and Svalgaard, 2004], while three of the five largest 30 MeV solar energetic proton events since 1859 [McCracken et al., 2001] occurred during cycle 13 (Rmax = 88)." |
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AD6AA
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Post by AD6AA on Sept 5, 2011 13:00:31 GMT
It should perhaps be lower, but not necessarily. In www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf we note: [para 10] "Average space weather might be milder with decreased solar activity, but the extreme events that dominate technological effects are not expected to disappear. In fact, they may become more common. Two of the eight strongest storms in the last 150 years occurred during solar cycle 14 (Rmax = 64) [Cliver and Svalgaard, 2004], while three of the five largest 30 MeV solar energetic proton events since 1859 [McCracken et al., 2001] occurred during cycle 13 (Rmax = 88)." Interesting. Could it be compared to earthquakes, where it is thought by some that small earthquakes will help relieve the stress, so a large one is less likely? Mike |
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bop
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Post by bop on Sept 5, 2011 19:44:46 GMT
The law does make more sense than most folks give it credit for. Another problem is giving the shutdown order. There isn't a big enough "warning window". The event would already be here before the time the ink hit the paper. |
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bop
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Post by bop on Sept 5, 2011 19:48:03 GMT
Also the hodge podge of utilities would be another factor. It just takes one utility to fark it up and send a cascading failures through a bunch of different jurisdictions. What if NY shut down and NE didn't? Look at the massive CF that precipitated the 2003 blackout on the East Coast. Many many operators and layers of gov there? :S The highest levels of nation states are having endless conferences and other stuff, but a lot of it's classified. This is probably a factor in the ready initiatives and perhaps even COG scenarios but this is probably above most of our paygrades. |
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Post by justsomeguy on Sept 5, 2011 19:54:35 GMT
I think we have between one and three days for the most events - the 1859 flare took 18 hours to arrive. Do we need to have a plan in place to handle that? Yes. Do we? I hope so but really have no idea.
If a truly historic flare was coming, wouldn't we react? Maybe I am an optimist, but...I think so.
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Hi Folks : 
