Chance of a new Maunder Minimum/cooling

[justmeanu]

I Googled- how far away is the satalite that records sea level. Topix-Posidon is 1335klm away, it has a variation of between 2 and 4 cm in it's orbit. The measurment of sea level can vary 1.4m but with multiple measurement they average it and manage to get it withing 4.7cm. How on Earth can they convince anyone of a couple of mm rises? read it and weep.
www.john-daly.com/altimetry/topex.htm

[justmeanu]

I think it should be compulsory all comments from these guys should start ONCE UPON A TIME and make it a proper fairy tale.

[sigurdur]

justmeanu:
It is not different using GRACE data to tell us that Antarctica is loosing ice. When you take the error bars of the Grace data, and put them in line with the supposed ice loss, we find out that Antarctica may be gaining ice, it may be flat with regards to ice, or it may be loosing ice.

I can't say for certain any of the above three with the data that is currently available. For anyone to state with certainty any of the above positions is hogwash.

The same can be said of the proxy data concerning past temperatures. Most folks look at the drawn in line, and either the error bars are not presented or they are ignored.

We know that a large percentage of scientists know this, yet present the results to try and support their viewpoints. And this gets back to "Follow the Money". IF they found there was nothing to be alarmed about.......the grants would disappear. OH OH.....can't have that can we?

And the sad thing is, most policy makers have no clue as to how to actually read a scientific paper.

[stranger]

Well, Sigurdur, let's be fair. It is true enough that most politicians cannot tell a hypothesis from a hypotenuse. They certainly do not how to critically read a scientific paper.

But on the other hand, the overwhelming majority of "climate scientists" cannot tell a vague idea from a theory. So they certainly cannot write a scientific paper.

Stranger

[icefisher]

If methane is 72 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, it is slightly less than ten times as effective as water vapor. H20 makes up 0.01 to 0.03 percent of the atmosphere, so 0.000002 percent would not do much either way. About as much as CO2, or an amount too small to be reliably estimated in the wild.

Of course the response will be without the "well distributed" greenhouse gases there would be no water vapor in the atmosphere!

Morons eat it up like codfish biting on a clam. The people who know better avoid telling us that in the absence of gases, liquids, and ice to reflect sunlight and move energy around the planet; the equator would average 58degC or about 136degF.

Yeah I really believe them when they tell me thats not warm enough to evaporate water!

[dontgetoutmuch]

Judging from the tone of recent press releases. I believe that the AGW crowd, having recognized that C02 fear mongering has mostly played out, and that the attempt to paint ocean acidification as the next scare is doomed to failure. Is instead hoping to paint methane as the next boogeyman. Expect to see the shrillness ramp up in the next few months as everyone in the real world realizes the extent of the fraud and begins to stockpile pitchforks and torches... Unless the players can get a little traction with methane I expect to see the whole thing collapse in the next year or two... You'll know the jig is up when all of the major players begin to retire to spend more time with their families...

[trbixler]

-6

"A 6°C temperature decrease in under ten years from the present day! This is significant at two levels. Firstly, it is going to get really cold very soon. This predicted cooling is calculated to have a 95% confidence level. Secondly, it gives the sceptic community a climate forecast that is based on physical evidence, with a statistician signing off. When the predictions of these three wise Norwegian are borne out, that is going to be a big thing."



wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/16/polar-amplification-works-both-ways/

[trbixler]

www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread786624/pg1?

[woodstove]

I explore the possibility of a grand solar minimum in my new book, which I hope all of you will purchase. An excerpt is here:

bit.ly/sfgFOa

And the book itself is here:

amzn.to/w3FQx8

Best of the season to all!

Harold

[sigurdur]

May have to purchase your book Harold. Thanks for the information.

[magellan]

I bought a couple Kindles, maybe your book could be available for Kindle? If not, I'll still buy the book, but I find the e-books are pretty handy and affordable these days.

[woodstove]

Dec 18, 2011 3:39:03 GMT magellan said:

I bought a couple Kindles, maybe your book could be available for Kindle? If not, I'll still buy the book, but I find the e-books are pretty handy and affordable these days.

It'll be out on Kindle, as well as iBook platforms and Nook by the New Year.

[socold]

Dec 16, 2011 15:21:15 GMT trbixler said:

-6

"A 6°C temperature decrease in under ten years from the present day! This is significant at two levels. Firstly, it is going to get really cold very soon. This predicted cooling is calculated to have a 95% confidence level. Secondly, it gives the sceptic community a climate forecast that is based on physical evidence, with a statistician signing off. When the predictions of these three wise Norwegian are borne out, that is going to be a big thing."



wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/16/polar-amplification-works-both-ways/

Here's Archibald last dire cooling prediction:



And what actually happened:

[magellan]

Dec 19, 2011 0:46:19 GMT socold said:

Dec 16, 2011 15:21:15 GMT trbixler said:

-6

"A 6°C temperature decrease in under ten years from the present day! This is significant at two levels. Firstly, it is going to get really cold very soon. This predicted cooling is calculated to have a 95% confidence level. Secondly, it gives the sceptic community a climate forecast that is based on physical evidence, with a statistician signing off. When the predictions of these three wise Norwegian are borne out, that is going to be a big thing."



wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/16/polar-amplification-works-both-ways/

Here's Archibald last dire cooling prediction:


And what actually happened:

Perhaps it would help if you comprehended the above prediction is not Archibald's.

Let's count up the Super (permanent) El Nino's from Hansen since 2005, the hurricanes from Trenberth & friends, imminent drying up of Lake Powel from Schmidt, snow being a thing of the past etc. etc. etc. ?

Maybe you could do us the pleasure of listing the failed AGW predictions?

P.S. I'll be looking forward to your updated UAH graph, now your favorite temperature data product, in the next 2-3 months.

[trbixler]

Some graphs from Vuk



www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-GMF.htm