Medieval Warm Period/Little Ice Age

[astroposer777]

Sept 19, 2011 5:03:01 GMT glennkoks said:

astroposer, No one has a handle on the next event. We can't do much to prepare for a NEO or Supervolcano but we can and probably should have some sort of national plan in effect for realistic dangers that have happened and will happen again in the not so distant future.

The famine of 1315 was caused by three excessively wet springs and cool summers in Europe. Even with modern technology I doubt world wide food supplies could hold up to some of the extreme weather events that would likely accompany an abrupt shift from our current warm to a colder cycle.

The threat becomes much more severe if combined with other events like a global pandemic or massive solar storm powerful enough to disrupt our electrical grid.

The global economy is pretty week and Im not sure it can stand on its own if everything remains the same. Add a global pandemic or heaven forbids a "perfect storm" of natural disasters into the equation and the results could get nasty.

Ok, everything you have stated is (IMO) true, so given the current political climate, what should we be doing? I am not comfortable predicting a pandemic, however, I think it likely that food shortages will be catastrophic if the climate returns to LIA conditions.

[curiousgeorge]

Sept 19, 2011 5:18:32 GMT astroposer777 said:

Sept 19, 2011 5:03:01 GMT glennkoks said:

astroposer, No one has a handle on the next event. We can't do much to prepare for a NEO or Supervolcano but we can and probably should have some sort of national plan in effect for realistic dangers that have happened and will happen again in the not so distant future.

The famine of 1315 was caused by three excessively wet springs and cool summers in Europe. Even with modern technology I doubt world wide food supplies could hold up to some of the extreme weather events that would likely accompany an abrupt shift from our current warm to a colder cycle.

The threat becomes much more severe if combined with other events like a global pandemic or massive solar storm powerful enough to disrupt our electrical grid.

The global economy is pretty week and Im not sure it can stand on its own if everything remains the same. Add a global pandemic or heaven forbids a "perfect storm" of natural disasters into the equation and the results could get nasty.

Ok, everything you have stated is (IMO) true, so given the current political climate, what should we be doing? I am not comfortable predicting a pandemic, however, I think it likely that food shortages will be catastrophic if the climate returns to LIA conditions.

One has to look at the entire process when talking about food shortages. Weather plays many roles in this, from planting and harvesting, to transportation, storage and distribution, to water and fertilizer needs, to commodity speculation. All of these bits and pieces of the process impact cost to the producers, middlemen, and ultimately the end consumer.

This year prices have been impacted not only by weather in the US and elsewhere, but also by higher fuel, fertilizer, and other price drivers. If the end consumer cannot afford to buy, record breaking harvests will not help him.

Food production ( in the US and other developed countries ) is pretty technologically efficient, but it is not economically efficient.

Here's a short article about this:

southeastfarmpress.com/grains/global-demand-drives-food-prices-higher

“On-farm production costs for energy, fertilizer and fuel continue on an upward trend but those costs are largely borne by farmers and ranchers. But, in addition, after food leaves the farm or ranch, higher costs for transportation, marketing, processing and storage are added,” Anderson explained. “As long as these costs remain elevated, consumers will continue to feel it in the form of higher food prices at the supermarket.”

[glennkoks]

astroposer, as we have already experienced with the Arab Spring high food prices and scarcities lead to civil unrest. We are still the bread basket of the world and spend less of a percentage of our income on food than most of the world but preparing our military to deal with civil unrest around the world caused by food shortages would be a good idea.

We can't do much to battle a global pandemic until we identify it and develop a vaccine. But having stockpiles of gloves, masks and finding a way to actually secure our border to slow the spread would probably be a good idea.

I have read much about the possible implications of a strong solar storm on our communication systems and electrical grid. In my honest opinion not enough has been done to study and prepare for the implications of such an event. Economically we are so dependent on electronics for everything from making a phone call to buying and selling of stock and money transfers one can only imagine the effect of closing down our entire financial system for several weeks or longer until we can get everything back online.

All of these events have happened before and I don't think that it is too far fetched to say that like Katrina sooner or later were going to be effected by one or more of them.

[nonentropic]

Stop worrying the Market will sort it. 70% of the big eating countries have an obese population a few low yield years will see a bias to sane serving sizes and towards non animal food sources.

Food is cheap the big problem is that all the big producers have massive state subsidies, that is the US, EU, Japan, China etc so the growers see no Market signals. If prices rise it is likely at some point that Market prices will exceed support prices and from there all will be fine.
Interestingly also the global deficits will also have a massive weight taken from them as support prices need no top up. Let's hope that sane people will learn to allow markets to do their magic.

[glennkoks]

"Stop worrying the Market will sort it. "

How well did the market sort it in Tunisia, Algeria, Libya and Syria? The only way the markets will deal with it is to respond with higher prices. In nations where they are already spending most of their income on food the outcome will be civil unrest. Which in the oil producing regions of the world is quickly felt worldwide in the form of higher fuel prices. These higher fuel prices lead to higher food prices and the vicious cycle is perpetuated.

Like it or not we are in a worldwide economy and the events in Libya, Greece, China and India are soon felt everywhere. Case in point watch what happens in Greece as their default is more and more likely. The ripple will be felt here in our economy almost instantly and Greece's GDP is smaller than many of our state economies.

[sigurdur]

Finally:
It seems that Climate Science is accepting that there WAS a Little Ice Age, and also that there WAS a Medevial Warm Period.

About damn time one would think.

[glennkoks]

Sigurdur, From what I have read most climate scientists agree that there was both a MWP and a LIA. There is some evidence to suggest that the LIA was limited to the NH or even to Europe but I think that most of the evidence indicates that these events were global.

I am old enough that when I was in school we were taught that the climate shifts were very slow occuring over thousands of years. Now we know that these climate shifts were much more abrupt. Perhaps over the period of just a few years.

In a much smaller world where economies are closely tied together an abrupt change from the warmer cycle we are in to a colder one will undoubtably produce challenges for farmers such as yourself. The weather the last 3 years in your state has been highly volatile. Two brutal winters in a row, historic flooding and now the "year without a winter" and developing drought conditions.

I am sure it has always been difficult trying to accurately predict growing season weather but have the last few years been even more difficult than the norm and do you see more volatility in the foreseeable future?

[glennkoks]

Here is the latest drought information and it shows increasing problems for the upper midwest. Down here in Texas we have seen rain lately so the drought should be somewhat diminished.[/img]

Attachments:

[sigurdur]

Glenn:
The Upper Midwest has an approx 80-90 wet and dry cycle. Prior to 1993, we were in the dry part of the cycle.
With that stated, that does not mean that we can't have a drought, even within the wet cycle.

I am not worried about our winter without a winter. In my area, older farmers talk about 1958, and 1988 was also quite a balmy winter. 1988 turned into a full fledged drought, while 1958 turned into a fair crop yielding year.

In response to the wet cycle, farmers are installing drain tile as fast as they can. When we were in the dry cycle, there was no need for drain tile as the soils very seldom reached the "true" saturation point. The last decade, soils have reached that point numerous times with widespread crop failures because of this. One portion of a field would have virtually no crop, the higher area would have something, but overall productivety declined and the salts that are not very far below the surface have been leaching up, rather than staying down. This has resulted in large areas of "alkaline" soils that were not present 20 years ago. The drain tile will help to flush those salts out again, and allow the land to become productive.

My biggest concern is that we have been lucky to have an open winter, yet, not cold temps. We have worked the fields wet for the past 3 years in a row, and an open winter with deep frost would have allowed the compacted soils to freeze/expand/shatter so that deep root development was assured. Right now, the frost line is only approx 30 inches down. Deep compaction has been observed to approx 4'. On a normal open winter, the frost layer would be 5-6 feet, thus replenishing the soils to a pristine state for root development.

In my area, and accross most of the state we have adequate sub soil moisture. Even moderate timely rains will assure a crop in 2012.

The long term maps show the effects of La Nina come spring. We shall see if the NAO continues its trend down to allow the La Nina to once again be in charge of my area.

I am not concerned at this time, but it makes for good coffee shop talk.

[glennkoks]

sigurdur, it sounds like you have a pretty good grasp on growing conditions in your area. Does a transitional phase from warm to cold with unsettled and hard to predict weather conditions a cause for concern? I have read that the transition from the MWP to the LIA was a very tumultuous period resulting in famine, plaque and other maladies caused by poor diet due to crop failures.

[sigurdur]

Glenn:
The most stable growing conditions in our area were the past 30 or so years prior to approx 2005.. During the 1945-1975 period, there were lots of surprises. The 1915-1933 period was also a period of stable production. Note that both of these periods were when the temps were warming.
Bonanza farms were prevelent prior to the mid 1930's.
There are a lot of older homes that were built in the 1918-1928 time period here as well, as it was a period of prosperity.

Am I concerned with a trend towards global cooling? Agrinomically, yes I am....very. During periods of cooling, which if you look at a climate map of ND, you will see that we have been in a downward trend for the past 10 years, minimum....growing conditions have been very eratic.

Late spring frosts, August frosts. A frost in 1995 wiped out the corn/soybean/edible bean crop. We have had frosts in June that burn the crops, but few severe enough to destroy them completely. Yield reductions did follow as a result.

There is no question that we have left our period of "flat" climate in the Upper Midwest/ Corn belt. The extremes the last 10 years are almost a copy of the 1945-1975 time period.

I am not trying to prove cycles etc with my comments. The comments are based on observations.

When looking at proxy data, the MWP was very pronounced in ND. The period in ref is approx 1200-1450 or so. There were severe droughts of up to 8 years duration, and severe floods as well up to 7 years in duration. According to proxy data. We do know that Glacier National Park was almost ice free during that period as well.

What I expect for at least the next decade is variability in production that is wider than previous "normal" variability. The thing that is slightly unsettling, is, that we have a world population that is much greater in number and requires ever greater quantities of food. Canada's grain belt is also affected by the trends of the Upper Midwest USA, so incorporating both areas amounts to a very large production area that has been very productive in the past.

IF, a big IF.....production fell 50% two years in a row in this area, you would see wheat at 30.00 a bushel, rather than 7. We are that important to the world.

I have written my Senators/Reps about once again building a food reserve. This has fallen on deaf ears. To me, it has always been the responsability of government to assure life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. One of those assurances, life, requires food and the required food security. One could divert 5 billion from defense, and use those funds for a food reserve.
But then, that is what real security is all about, so it will never get traction until such time as all the bins ring hollow.

[lyrch75]

Heck, just the money the DOE has burnt up with the solar cell boondoggles would have been a start.

Feb 5, 2012 20:55:27 GMT sigurdur said:

Glenn:
The most stable growing conditions in our area were the past 30 or so years prior to approx 2005.. During the 1945-1975 period, there were lots of surprises. The 1915-1933 period was also a period of stable production. Note that both of these periods were when the temps were warming.
Bonanza farms were prevelent prior to the mid 1930's.
There are a lot of older homes that were built in the 1918-1928 time period here as well, as it was a period of prosperity.

Am I concerned with a trend towards global cooling? Agrinomically, yes I am....very. During periods of cooling, which if you look at a climate map of ND, you will see that we have been in a downward trend for the past 10 years, minimum....growing conditions have been very eratic.

Late spring frosts, August frosts. A frost in 1995 wiped out the corn/soybean/edible bean crop. We have had frosts in June that burn the crops, but few severe enough to destroy them completely. Yield reductions did follow as a result.

There is no question that we have left our period of "flat" climate in the Upper Midwest/ Corn belt. The extremes the last 10 years are almost a copy of the 1945-1975 time period.

I am not trying to prove cycles etc with my comments. The comments are based on observations.

When looking at proxy data, the MWP was very pronounced in ND. The period in ref is approx 1200-1450 or so. There were severe droughts of up to 8 years duration, and severe floods as well up to 7 years in duration. According to proxy data. We do know that Glacier National Park was almost ice free during that period as well.

What I expect for at least the next decade is variability in production that is wider than previous "normal" variability. The thing that is slightly unsettling, is, that we have a world population that is much greater in number and requires ever greater quantities of food. Canada's grain belt is also affected by the trends of the Upper Midwest USA, so incorporating both areas amounts to a very large production area that has been very productive in the past.

IF, a big IF.....production fell 50% two years in a row in this area, you would see wheat at 30.00 a bushel, rather than 7. We are that important to the world.

I have written my Senators/Reps about once again building a food reserve. This has fallen on deaf ears. To me, it has always been the responsability of government to assure life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. One of those assurances, life, requires food and the required food security. One could divert 5 billion from defense, and use those funds for a food reserve.
But then, that is what real security is all about, so it will never get traction until such time as all the bins ring hollow.

[glennkoks]

sigurdur, Bloomberg was reporting this morning that farmers will increase the amount of crops planted this year by an amount equal to the size of New Jersey over last year. Mostly corn and soy beans. The analyst they interviewed said that the economic problems in Europe and China along with the large increase in the size of our crops would keep prices to the farmer low and when they have low prices they tend to plant more which increases the problem.

Sorry to be the barer of bad news. But I did read how an increase in micro-brews have driven Barley prices up.

[glennkoks]

Back to the climate, It reminds me of the quote a famous dare devil said when asked about his ride over Niagara Falls in a barrel. He said the top and bottom of the falls was not that bad but the transition was a pregnant dog.

Our transition to a colder climate cycle may be a pregnant dog as well.

[icefisher]

I have written my Senators/Reps about once again building a food reserve. This has fallen on deaf ears. To me, it has always been the responsability of government to assure life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. One of those assurances, life, requires food and the required food security. One could divert 5 billion from defense, and use those funds for a food reserve.
But then, that is what real security is all about, so it will never get traction until such time as all the bins ring hollow.

Hmmmmm, sounds like a justification for Obama care. Guess it goes to show it all depends upon which side of one's bread is buttered.

My opinion here is we need a little of all this stuff. Natural selection is an important issue as well. Its what drives us to be better.

Curiousgeorge seems to have the best handle on this with: "Food production ( in the US and other developed countries ) is pretty technologically efficient, but it is not economically efficient."

Certainly food shortages will be spread unevenly over the economic landscape. And its seems a fair prospect in this age of terrorism that wheat and plowshares will work better in some situations than bombs and missiles in providing for national security. But for that to work you probably at least need some democracy and some measure of corruption control.

I use TV to tell me what products are overpriced. For sure TV items get a lot closer look anyway for equally good substitutes.

Maybe one could apply that to political campaigns as well. Big budget campaigns equal big obligations to supporters.

I tried it during the last Presidential race but unfortunately the small budget candidate did not win.