|
|
Post by glennkoks on Feb 7, 2012 20:31:06 GMT
sigurdur, a food reserve would be a good idea. Several bad harvests and we would feel the pinch. Nowadays with a global economy we are more vulnerable to international economic turmoil which could result from higher food prices in nations where they spend a much larger portion of their income on food then we do. 30.00 dollar a bushel wheat makes our meals a little more expensive but in other parts of the world it becomes unaffordable.
|
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Mar 22, 2012 15:27:36 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Mar 23, 2012 3:28:55 GMT
sig, this from your link:
"The weather, it seems, has gone topsy-turvy."
Topsy-turvy is what scares me. It's hard to account for topsy-turvy weather when your planning this years crops.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Mar 23, 2012 5:08:05 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Mar 24, 2012 1:17:05 GMT
Pooh, just how closely is earth's temperature correlated to the sunspot cycle?
|
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Mar 24, 2012 6:01:25 GMT
Pooh, just how closely is earth's temperature correlated to the sunspot cycle? SSN doesn't correlate too well statistically for several reasons: - The SSN (sunspot counts) have some discontinuities in method that have to be sorted out. Dr. Svalgaard is working on it. Until that is done there will be questions about what values to use.
- The temperature records have been munged by adjustments and assumptions. I do not know if BEST used raw observations or adjusted data as input; I can't find documentation.
- The TSI is somewhat related to SSN, but the effects of spots and faculae are different in magnitude and opposite in sign, in the sense that sunspots are cooler and faculae are hotter.
- TSI has some omissions of higher frequencies; UV interacts with ozone, depositing energy.
- The magnetic field and solar wind is a plausible moderator of clouds (see CERN/CLOUD or cosmoclimatology, a many-step process for which some steps have been experimentally demonstrated but others remain a work-in-progress).
- Last on this list is the effect of ocean oscillations on what is observed as "earth's temperature". Since the lags can be months to years, it is going to take some serious work to match sunspots to temperature.
Good question!  |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Mar 26, 2012 0:10:17 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Dec 5, 2012 0:13:39 GMT
Anyone notice Dr. Thermostat disappears after he gets gobsmacked? The link below has not been updated for some time, but as Dr. Thermostat has a problem with doing research using Google, this may help him have a better understanding of the MWP and quench his thirst for scientific knowledge. We all know that's what he's all about.... pages.science-skeptical.de/MWP/MedievalWarmPeriod1024x768.html |
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Dec 5, 2012 1:03:10 GMT
Glen
If you were to talk to people in UK their reports of the weather since Easter this year would sound eerily like the reports in 1315. From "The Long Hot Summer - How Climate Changed Civilization":
"Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.”
From today's This Is Wiltshire:
"Malmesbury hit by worst floods in 70 years
Firefighters have rescued four people from two houses in Malmesbury after it was hit by the worst flooding in 70 years.
Torrential rain caused the River Avon to flood in the early hours of this morning, flooding the centre of town and at least a dozen houses.
Malmesbury Mayor Ray Sanderson said it was the worst he has ever seen. "
Now the UK is being told that due to a blocking high the weather is expected to get very much colder and stay cold for the next month.
It is what happens when the jet streams move equatorward and get large Rossby waves in them with a lot of meridonal flow. A blocking high stops or even reverses the waves and some places are in continual rain and others in continual drought. If you are on the equatorward flow you will be cold if you are on the poleward flow you will be warm. It seems that equatorward shifts of the jetstream occur when the tropical Hadley cells become less vigorous and the Ferrel cells drop toward the equator.
|
|
|
|
Post by karlox on Dec 5, 2012 18:00:45 GMT
Glen If you were to talk to people in UK their reports of the weather since Easter this year would sound eerily like the reports in 1315. From "The Long Hot Summer - How Climate Changed Civilization": "Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.”From today's This Is Wiltshire: " Malmesbury hit by worst floods in 70 years
Firefighters have rescued four people from two houses in Malmesbury after it was hit by the worst flooding in 70 years.
Torrential rain caused the River Avon to flood in the early hours of this morning, flooding the centre of town and at least a dozen houses.
Malmesbury Mayor Ray Sanderson said it was the worst he has ever seen. " Now the UK is being told that due to a blocking high the weather is expected to get very much colder and stay cold for the next month. It is what happens when the jet streams move equatorward and get large Rossby waves in them with a lot of meridonal flow. A blocking high stops or even reverses the waves and some places are in continual rain and others in continual drought. If you are on the equatorward flow you will be cold if you are on the poleward flow you will be warm. It seems that equatorward shifts of the jetstream occur when the tropical Hadley cells become less vigorous and the Ferrel cells drop toward the equator. Nautonnier, and these cells become less vigorous or drop towards the equator due to... less temperature gradient between tropical areas and poles? Is it the same in South Hemisphere at this same times? We, in Spain are within eastern edge of blocking high, cold but don´t get hit straight forward by the polar jet streams as UK is been... but true that it is a prettly repetitive pattern with little oscillations... |
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Dec 5, 2012 23:34:25 GMT
Glen If you were to talk to people in UK their reports of the weather since Easter this year would sound eerily like the reports in 1315. From "The Long Hot Summer - How Climate Changed Civilization": "Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.”From today's This Is Wiltshire: " Malmesbury hit by worst floods in 70 years
Firefighters have rescued four people from two houses in Malmesbury after it was hit by the worst flooding in 70 years.
Torrential rain caused the River Avon to flood in the early hours of this morning, flooding the centre of town and at least a dozen houses.
Malmesbury Mayor Ray Sanderson said it was the worst he has ever seen. " Now the UK is being told that due to a blocking high the weather is expected to get very much colder and stay cold for the next month. It is what happens when the jet streams move equatorward and get large Rossby waves in them with a lot of meridonal flow. A blocking high stops or even reverses the waves and some places are in continual rain and others in continual drought. If you are on the equatorward flow you will be cold if you are on the poleward flow you will be warm. It seems that equatorward shifts of the jetstream occur when the tropical Hadley cells become less vigorous and the Ferrel cells drop toward the equator. Nautonnier, and these cells become less vigorous or drop towards the equator due to... less temperature gradient between tropical areas and poles? Is it the same in South Hemisphere at this same times? We, in Spain are within eastern edge of blocking high, cold but don´t get hit straight forward by the polar jet streams as UK is been... but true that it is a prettly repetitive pattern with little oscillations... Put a large pan of water over a small burner and as it comes to the boil you will see the convection in the water causing a hump over the burner the water rises up in the middle and runs to the cooler water. This is just what the equatorial Hadley cells do - yes both sides of the equator. See:  If the heat is turned up - then the Hadley cells grow and push the Ferrel cells poleward. The Ferrel cells are the location of the temperate latitudes weather systems. There are jet streams between the Hadley and Ferrel cells and between the Ferrel cells and the Polar cells. These are not completely symmetrical and the jets meander with Rossby waves in them. If the Hadley cells become less active then they shrink and the Ferrel cells move equatorward and are followed by widening of the polar cells. At the moment it would appear that the convective activity of the Hadley cells has reduced and we see weather in the Ferrel cells moving equatorward. The jetstream that delineates the boundary between the cells has become loopy with a lot of meridonal flow and blocking highs (sometimes called omega highs due to the shape forced in the jetstreams) stop the waves in the jetstream leading to continual weather of the same type over some areas for months. If you are lucky you are in the nice weather part  Of course the question of the decade is what increases or reduces the Hadley cell convection? It seems to be a feedback between ocean and atmospheric temperatures causing or limiting cloudiness, but as the oceans get hot causing more cloud the cloud reduces the heat into the oceans the humidity causing the clouds alters the enthalpy of the air and the ratio between dry and wet adiabatic lapse rates that governs the strength of convection..... so its a multiple positive and negative chaotic feedback loop. And the atmosphere and the oceans are both moving at different rates carrying heat to different areas - in the atmosphere this heat transport is largely as latent heat of water vapor and water droplets being carried to different areas. In the oceans there is a far more ponderous and slow thermohaline circulation carrying warm or cold water around a centuries long track with upwelling and downwelling currents. Then add length of day changes and tides slopping both the sea and atmosphere and things rapidly turn into an nP problem. This is not conducive to drawing a straight line projection from past through current values to forecast the future. Yet that is what a lot of people are doing. |
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 0:12:49 GMT
nautonnier, Thanks again. Any info you can dig up on historic jet stream positioning I am interested in. However, I am not sure about the jet stream moving equatorial (at least not in the U.S.) It's been trapped up north for a while. Although I have read that is going to change next week.
|
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Dec 6, 2012 1:56:22 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Dec 6, 2012 5:07:49 GMT
nautonnier, Thanks again. Any info you can dig up on historic jet stream positioning I am interested in. However, I am not sure about the jet stream moving equatorial (at least not in the U.S.) It's been trapped up north for a while. Although I have read that is going to change next week. Jet Stream Analyses and Forecasts at 300 mb squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.htmlThe "Archives" link (second line in the yellow title bar) takes you to a menu of various regions by month, and animations. However, the detail may not take you earlier than Jan 2008. Not too bad, seeing that the existence of the jet stream was unknown before WW II. |
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 5:34:39 GMT
Pooh, this from Wiki
In the 1920s, a Japanese meteorologist, Wasaburo Oishi,[5] detected the jet stream from a site near Mount Fuji. He tracked pilot balloons, also known as pibals (balloons used to determine upper level winds),[6] as they rose into the atmosphere. Oishi's work largely went unnoticed outside Japan.
I suspect but have no way of proving it that it was his work that gave rise to the incendiary bombs that the Japanese used against the U.S. during WWII. They had to have some idea of the height and speed of the jetstream to set the timers on the bombs they dropped on us.
|
|
