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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2013 20:41:11 GMT
www.whoi.edu/main/news-releases/2009?tid=3622&cid=59106A new 2,000-year-long reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (SST) from the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) suggests that temperatures in the region may have been as warm during the Medieval Warm Period as they are today.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 24, 2013 21:51:06 GMT
www.whoi.edu/main/news-releases/2009?tid=3622&cid=59106A new 2,000-year-long reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (SST) from the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) suggests that temperatures in the region may have been as warm during the Medieval Warm Period as they are today. Sig, Sorry that's not possible steve has spoken. |
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2013 22:05:58 GMT
nautonnier:
On this one....Steve is wrong.
He is a smart feller, and eventually the science will overwhelm his beliefs so that reality once again resides.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2013 22:08:01 GMT
The literature is overwhelming as to the MWP being world wide.
From Antarctica, which is actually surprising in that the strength must have been massive being Antarctica is a pretty much closed climate system, to the Northern Tip of Greenland.
Reality is reality.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 24, 2013 22:35:53 GMT
sigurdur,
Not only is their pretty good evidence that the MWP was world wide, Peruvian glacial ice cores seem to indicate that the LIA was a world wide event as well. It is possible that increasing and decreasing periods of vulcanism may have a more profound effect on our climate than had been previously thought.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2013 22:57:12 GMT
sigurdur, Not only is their pretty good evidence that the MWP was world wide, Peruvian glacial ice cores seem to indicate that the LIA was a world wide event as well. It is possible that increasing and decreasing periods of vulcanism may have a more profound effect on our climate than had been previously thought. I agree Glenn. The buying into the CO2 regime has precluded much attention to other climate factors. The Paleo scientists haven't slowed down, but their voices have been usurped by stupid. As present, the temp is flat with a cooling bias worldwide. Has been that way for 16 years running now. Let me condition that as well, the dry bulb temperature. So very much to learn. We are better to have open minds to all possibilities, cause we are very short of knowledge in this complex area. |
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2013 4:10:54 GMT
joannenova.com.au/2012/07/medieval-warm-period-found-in-120-proxies-roman-era-similar-to-early-20th-century/Two major proxy studies, larger than ever, were released in April and June 2012. They show that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) existed, and was similar to current temperatures. These comprehensive studies suggest current temperatures are not unusual, and that itself is not all that surprising — I’ve mentioned before how there are hundreds of proxy studies showing it was as warm or warmer back then. (CO2science has been documenting them.) But these studies are worth a mention because they are so large.
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Post by steve on Feb 25, 2013 19:24:26 GMT
nautonnier: On this one....Steve is wrong. He is a smart feller, and eventually the science will overwhelm his beliefs so that reality once again resides. sigurdur, You shouldn't be taken in so easily by nautonnier's misinterpretation or misunderstanding of what I say. I logged on to post exactly the same paper as you did. I don't think that nautonnier has noticed that it says the warm pool was "similar to modern SSTs" Anyway...give me a minute to copy in something I prepared in the library.... |
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Post by steve on Feb 25, 2013 19:44:05 GMT
The climate around 1000 years ago give or take a couple of hundred was different to the current climate for at least a couple of reasons. One was that the orientation of the earth's axis, the other was that the level of volcanic activity was lower. I don't want to put forward what other people are claiming about the strength and extent of the warmth during this period.
My belief is simple - that there is little or no evidence to show that the MWP period was globally warmer than now (the last couple of decades).
That does not mean that the MWP climate was not globally different to current climate. But it does mean that the climate then cannot be compared with the climate of now and the next few decades in terms of likely big impacts, such as melting of glaciers and snow pack.
A lot of claims about the MWP pick on papers that demonstrate a warm period during 850-1350. But in most cases, the warmth is identified only in a small fraction of the period, and the period includes a number of cooler periods (that obviously would "cancel out" warming in other papers).
So using Google scholar I picked out a few papers during my lunch-break today which illustrate my point:
1. Here is one which I see was also picked by the CO2"science" lobby group:
That's all well and good, but CO2"science" forgot that the 20th Century average is about 0.5C cooler than the 21st Century average so far. So the MWP in Central Chile is apparently cooler than now.
2. This one is showing a cold period while the Vikings were going to Greenland, and warming when it was already cooling down in Greenland. So the warming is not happening at the same time:
3. This shows temperatures cooler in a part of the tropical Pacific:
4. This one shows temperatures "similar" to now - not warmer.
5. Here is a paper that strongly sells the MWP as a global phenomenon. So you cannot argue with the authors' determination to make the point:
But note also the following from the same paper - cold down South while warm in Greenland:
And finally, it would seem that the best sceptic effort cannot find a period during the whole MWP period that can confidently be said to be warmer than the past 30 years:
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 26, 2013 1:01:36 GMT
Steve:
As far as I am concerned, I don't think the MWP was warmer than present.
Sure, you could look at the error bars and claim with some certainty that it was as warm or warmer, but if you are looking at those, you can also claim that it was as cool or colder.
Both with the same degree of confidence.
I was burned originally by Dr. Mann's reconstruction. I read it, thought it was sound science. Then, I read a letter in some botany publication that the PhD guy just slammed tree ring chronology. After investigating that premise, I came to the conclusion that tree rings are not good proxy data for temperatures.
There was an attempt at the University of Manitoba to use tree rings supplemented by oxygen proxy data to overcome the other factors affecting growth. That must not have panned out, as it has since fizzled.
I still think that Keigwin had the most definitive record.
The main thing I have come to accept is that the MWP was a world wide phenomina.
Not a big deal.
As far as cause? You are probably correct. The solar theory does have holes in it tho as defined by proxy data once again. But that is another issue in and off itself.
The larger issue is that Dr. Mann pushed something that has been falsified. Did he do it willingly? Yes, as he is still bull headed about tree rings. But then, this is his baby and he is having a hard time giving it up.
He used to be a pretty good scientist. The sad thing to watch is how fast he is falling because he won't just admit that tree rings are not very useful proxy data.
He has been a party to so many shoddy papers the past 8 years, that anything he gets published is pretty worthless as the methodology is not good. This is showing a lack of critical thinking by some of his peers as well. Not a good thing for science.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 26, 2013 1:05:32 GMT
Steve:
I will state again that I think you are a smart feller. I very much enjoy your posts. You are well enough informed to provide food for thought and further digging.
Thank you.
Sometimes folks read something into something that is not apparent. Human nature??
Nautonnier is also a smart feller who I appreciate. A lot of times he is confirmation bias, but at other times not.
That is the real beauty of this board. Various personalities....various interpretations.
And NO censorship.....so all sides can be mulled about.
So very refreshing.
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Post by karlox on Feb 26, 2013 17:03:39 GMT
;D Cheers for good feeling!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2013 18:00:08 GMT
Interesting: It appears that everyone knew that the MWP was substantial and world wide. It has a very well defined Medieval Warm Period - >Little Ice Age – 20th Century Warming pattern, punctuated by strong decadal >fluctuations of inferred cold that correspond well with known histories of >neo-glacial advance in some parts of the NH. The punctuations also appear, >in some cases, to be related to known major volcanic eruptions. This was just for the Northern Hemisphere, but it seems further down in the e-mail the Southern Hemisphere was also involved. Amazing eh?  ?? wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/13/climategate-3-0-has-occurred-the-password-has-been-released/#more-82057 |
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Post by steve on Mar 13, 2013 23:27:27 GMT
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Post by magellan on Mar 13, 2013 23:49:24 GMT
What do you suppose that means? |
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