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Post by sigurdur on Jul 31, 2013 2:42:14 GMT
To the point anymore of who knows what to expect. One thing for sure, the models.....weather and climate.....are worthless.
For all the money that has been spent, this compulsion in regards to only co2 HAS to stop. We need RELIABLE models that actually include all known elements.
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Post by magellan on Jul 31, 2013 3:45:55 GMT
To the point anymore of who knows what to expect. One thing for sure, the models.....weather and climate.....are worthless. For all the money that has been spent, this compulsion in regards to only co2 HAS to stop. We need RELIABLE models that actually include all known elements. That's why I never vote in the Arctic Ice poll..... |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 31, 2013 4:24:37 GMT
Aww....but magellan. Tiz fun to do.
I wasn't talking about the Arctic in regards to who knows what to expect. I was talking climate/weather.
The Arctic is pretty easy compared to overall climate/weather.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 31, 2013 8:06:24 GMT
Time for the MainStream crew to call it a day? Their mission statement: "We hope to make this traverse (Northwest passage Inuvik, NWT through Tuktoyaktuk, NWT to Pond Inlet, Nunavut) solely under human power in a row boat, without sail or motor, in a single season all to bring awareness to the profound changes climate change is having on the arctic." I have great admiration for their spirit of adventure but it's starting to look like a very dangerous folly. At the very start of the adventure they had a warning that this Summer could be a cold one: "The temperature in Tuk is -1C and there’s a strong Northeasterly wind blowing in the morning. Locals tell us it should be 15-20C at this time of year. “The bugs should be bouncing off your head” explained Eilleen who came down to the beach to visit with us. Strange weather has defined the year we are told. It’s been colder than usual and the ice has been very slow in going out."
They've had a tough couple of days, narrowly avoiding their craft being crushed by ice: "We then woke to the crunching sound of a large ice berg nudging up against the boat. The ice berg had pinned our anchor line and hard as we tried, we couldn’t free the line. Because the berg was moving, the nose of the boat was starting to be pulled underneath it so we had to cut the line and in doing so say good bye to our anchor. We then spent the next few hours trying to battle our way out of the choppy conditions but again we simply couldn’t make progress into the wind and find a safe place to shelter."
They have been stationary since the 29th, sitting out a storm:   Not a good summer to be in a small craft bouncing off ice in the Arctic:  MainStream crew link: mainstreamlastfirst.com/ |
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Post by magellan on Aug 2, 2013 2:02:42 GMT
Time for the MainStream crew to call it a day? Their mission statement: "We hope to make this traverse (Northwest passage Inuvik, NWT through Tuktoyaktuk, NWT to Pond Inlet, Nunavut) solely under human power in a row boat, without sail or motor, in a single season all to bring awareness to the profound changes climate change is having on the arctic."I have great admiration for their spirit of adventure but it's starting to look like a very dangerous folly. At the very start of the adventure they had a warning that this Summer could be a cold one: "The temperature in Tuk is -1C and there’s a strong Northeasterly wind blowing in the morning. Locals tell us it should be 15-20C at this time of year. “The bugs should be bouncing off your head” explained Eilleen who came down to the beach to visit with us. Strange weather has defined the year we are told. It’s been colder than usual and the ice has been very slow in going out."
They've had a tough couple of days, narrowly avoiding their craft being crushed by ice: "We then woke to the crunching sound of a large ice berg nudging up against the boat. The ice berg had pinned our anchor line and hard as we tried, we couldn’t free the line. Because the berg was moving, the nose of the boat was starting to be pulled underneath it so we had to cut the line and in doing so say good bye to our anchor. We then spent the next few hours trying to battle our way out of the choppy conditions but again we simply couldn’t make progress into the wind and find a safe place to shelter."
They have been stationary since the 29th, sitting out a storm: Not a good summer to be in a small craft bouncing off ice in the Arctic: MainStream crew link: mainstreamlastfirst.com/I don't share your admiration, but whatever. At some point they will have to make a decision, or forces beyond their control will do it for them, and it will not end well. Four guys packed in a sardine can will likely result in at least one coming to their senses and wanting to throw in the towel, even if they made a pact to continue on no matter the odds. Once morale starts breaking down, the comradery will end, and once one or more determine the likelihood of survival is against them when the weather in the open sea becomes very precarious, they will be at each others throats. There is always at least one in a group who cares more about their life than a misguided political statement, whatever that may entail. So far the vast majority of their adventure has been hugging the shoreline, walking their boat in shallow water with occasional jumps to small islands etc. If and when they find an opening and go for it, the next report may be from the Canadian Coast Guard. |
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Post by magellan on Aug 2, 2013 4:57:51 GMT
Houston, we have another problem; better call Walt Meijer and Mark Serreze at NSIDC to put the word out these data cannot be allowed to remain as legitimate. Use new smoothing algorithms, say the satellites (all of them) are defective..... make something up, like, "this is all in agreement with AGW theory". Just don't let the public see these charts. Neven is depressed as it is now. If we lose that gullible nitwit, it could mean others might question the Consensus and we're screwed at our next grant review. Sure we'll always have John Cook making up new lies, ignoring the latest research and twisting facts, but he's been outed too many times to be believed anymore. Again, make this TOP priority; alter the data ASAP. We promised Barbie Boxer and her colleagues an ICE FREE Arctic by 2013. We assured them the Arctic was melting away faster year after year, the ice is all rotten and the polar bears would die (true, that lie didn't work out, but we milked it for everything we could) they PAID good money for our predictions and propaganda so they would have an excuse to shut down industry and tax the *hit out of everyone, so FIX it, this is our golden parachute we're talking about! Serreze did a good job ignoring the Bering Sea record ice the last three years after he made up some bull*hit about it being a fluke in 2010 and ignoring it since, but now we hear DMI is reporting the coldest Arctic summer on record, and July melt is the slowest too. Damnit, this wasn't supposed to happen, we're gonna have egg on our face for sure if the low information crowd ever decides to think for themselves. Can't you at least change the color of the line, or do something so it isn't so obvious? I mean, red sticks out like a sore thumb. Has Al Gore been notified? What about Revkin (he's become somewhat unreliable since Climategate)? McKibben is a moron, but make sure he assures his zombies this is all part of AGW and include the usual "worse than we thought" meme. The same for Romm and the rest of the useful idiots. What about the MSM? Whatever you do, don't let some crack reporter get wind this is anything but expected AGW variation, especially Fox News! They'll actually report the Arctic has more ice this year, so use the standard baffle-them-with-BS protocol. Signed, The 97%  |
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Post by icefisher on Aug 2, 2013 5:52:31 GMT
So far the vast majority of their adventure has been hugging the shoreline, walking their boat in shallow water with occasional jumps to small islands etc. If and when they find an opening and go for it, the next report may be from the Canadian Coast Guard. Once well into the passage they may find better seas and winds. But having a fair amount of experience rowing boats in the ocean I think there is one major flaw in the boat's design. They should have designed four rowing stations for 4 men for a 4 man boat. There is a huge difference in rowing a boat with just yourself and rowing one with a passenger. Thats especially true when you have a relatively high wind profile to make for the sleeping quarters. In calm weather you can go to the two on and two off. But when the winds up everybody needs to work and what you do is find a pace you can maintain. They got themselves in a situation with two little horsepower and to make any progress they had to work so hard they were tired in 20 minutes. With twice the horsepower you can continually make headway without running out of gas if everybody is in good shape. A long boat might weight a bit more but a higher proportion of length to beam makes it easier to row. I wish them the best of luck but it appears they are not coming close to the progress they need. Today it looks like they had a relatively good day making about 24 miles. But the problem is the 24 miles they did today represented about zero progress on their path through the passage, instead following a north south coastline deep into a bay. They appear to be headed to Paulatuk which has no roads but has an airport. They need an anchor at a minimum having lost their only anchor a couple days ago. |
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 2, 2013 13:02:00 GMT
The problem with all these people who believe what the climate 'scientists' are pushing the media to say, is that they are completely unprepared for the reality of the Arctic. Even the low 'extents' are HUGE amounts of ice and the winds make the exact position of that ice very difficult to forecast. What will happen is that the various emergency services like the coastguard will have to put their lives at risk to rescue people who were duped into trying to make a political point by imaginative climate 'scientists'. Climate scientists do not understand how many lives are being lost and disrupted by their little academic games and grant-seeking even if they did I do not believe that they would care.
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Post by numerouno on Aug 2, 2013 15:28:38 GMT
Houston, we have another problem; better call Walt Meijer and Mark Serreze at NSIDC to put the word out these data cannot be allowed to remain as legitimate. Use new smoothing algorithms, say the satellites (all of them) are defective..... make something up, like, "this is all in agreement with AGW theory". Just don't let the public see these charts. Neven is depressed as it is now. If we lose that gullible nitwit, it could mean others might question the Consensus and we're screwed at our next grant review. Sure we'll always have John Cook making up new lies, ignoring the latest research and twisting facts, but he's been outed too many times to be believed anymore. Again, make this TOP priority; alter the data ASAP. We promised Barbie Boxer and her colleagues an ICE FREE Arctic by 2013. We assured them the Arctic was melting away faster year after year, the ice is all rotten and the polar bears would die (true, that lie didn't work out, but we milked it for everything we could) they PAID good money for our predictions and propaganda so they would have an excuse to shut down industry and tax the *hit out of everyone, so FIX it, this is our golden parachute we're talking about! Serreze did a good job ignoring the Bering Sea record ice the last three years after he made up some bull*hit about it being a fluke in 2010 and ignoring it since, but now we hear DMI is reporting the coldest Arctic summer on record, and July melt is the slowest too. Damnit, this wasn't supposed to happen, we're gonna have egg on our face for sure if the low information crowd ever decides to think for themselves. Can't you at least change the color of the line, or do something so it isn't so obvious? I mean, red sticks out like a sore thumb. Has Al Gore been notified? What about Revkin (he's become somewhat unreliable since Climategate)? McKibben is a moron, but make sure he assures his zombies this is all part of AGW and include the usual "worse than we thought" meme. The same for Romm and the rest of the useful idiots. What about the MSM? Whatever you do, don't let some crack reporter get wind this is anything but expected AGW variation, especially Fox News! They'll actually report the Arctic has more ice this year, so use the standard baffle-them-with-BS protocol. Magellan, I hate to break into your verbal vomiting, but the seat needs to be flushed: the kick in the ice extent graph is a direct result of some strong warm summer air pushing forcefully into the Arctic! |
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Post by icefisher on Aug 2, 2013 15:55:01 GMT
Magellan, I hate to break into your verbal vomiting, but the seat needs to be flushed: the kick in the ice extent graph is a direct result of some strong warm summer air pushing forcefully into the Arctic! Looks like we have progressed from heat melts ice to heat does not matter and now to heat is the cause of ice not melting. |
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Post by magellan on Aug 2, 2013 16:29:49 GMT
So far the vast majority of their adventure has been hugging the shoreline, walking their boat in shallow water with occasional jumps to small islands etc. If and when they find an opening and go for it, the next report may be from the Canadian Coast Guard. Once well into the passage they may find better seas and winds. But having a fair amount of experience rowing boats in the ocean I think there is one major flaw in the boat's design. They should have designed four rowing stations for 4 men for a 4 man boat. There is a huge difference in rowing a boat with just yourself and rowing one with a passenger. Thats especially true when you have a relatively high wind profile to make for the sleeping quarters. In calm weather you can go to the two on and two off. But when the winds up everybody needs to work and what you do is find a pace you can maintain. They got themselves in a situation with two little horsepower and to make any progress they had to work so hard they were tired in 20 minutes. With twice the horsepower you can continually make headway without running out of gas if everybody is in good shape. A long boat might weight a bit more but a higher proportion of length to beam makes it easier to row. I wish them the best of luck but it appears they are not coming close to the progress they need. Today it looks like they had a relatively good day making about 24 miles. But the problem is the 24 miles they did today represented about zero progress on their path through the passage, instead following a north south coastline deep into a bay. They appear to be headed to Paulatuk which has no roads but has an airport. They need an anchor at a minimum having lost their only anchor a couple days ago. I've had just two instances caught out in a storm while on a boat. Unfortunately, both times were on Lake Huron. After the second experience which nearly cost me and my family our lives, I never take the word of the captain (i.e. buddies) for marine weather conditions. |
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Post by magellan on Aug 2, 2013 16:31:46 GMT
Magellan, I hate to break into your verbal vomiting, but the seat needs to be flushed: the kick in the ice extent graph is a direct result of some strong warm summer air pushing forcefully into the Arctic! Looks like we have progressed from heat melts ice to heat does not matter and now to heat is the cause of ice not melting. Numo likes to make things up as it goes along. Can't blame him totally, there are many useful idiots who believe every line of crap they are fed by their eco-tard "scientists"> |
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Post by mkelter on Aug 2, 2013 16:52:24 GMT
The problem with all these people who believe what the climate 'scientists' are pushing the media to say, is that they are completely unprepared for the reality of the Arctic. Even the low 'extents' are HUGE amounts of ice and the winds make the exact position of that ice very difficult to forecast. What will happen is that the various emergency services like the coastguard will have to put their lives at risk to rescue people who were duped into trying to make a political point by imaginative climate 'scientists'. Climate scientists do not understand how many lives are being lost and disrupted by their little academic games and grant-seeking even if they did I do not believe that they would care. Potential Darwin Award Winners I cannot fathom the risks associated with Arctic search and rescue. Not to mention the costs to the taxpayers. We're good people and we don't let people die, even when the gene-pool might be improved by having a few perish.
The good news is that the Arctic Joule crew is sticking to the shoreline, having cut their anchor several days ago. This doesn't doom the success of the adventure, but it is looking less likely to succeed.
DeHavelle.com is tracking the progress of Arctic Joule and projecting the finish date. The currently project arrival at Pond Inlet in late October, approximately 27.8 days behind schedule.
It took the intrepid crew seven days to get around Parry Pennisula, which was at the edge of the Beaufort Sea Ice Sheet early this week when the Canadian Ice Service produced the map below.
When the arctic temperatures north of 80o N dropped suddenly seven days ago, according to DMI, there was some indication that the area around Parry Pennisula started to freeze in. We'll see next week when CIS produces their updated weekly map. There is every indication that the Union and Dolphin straits are still relatively ice-free, but the current weather forecast is for winds from the northeast at speed up to 25 kmH during the afternoon. It makes for some hard rowing I would think.
Once past Victoria Island, they'll turn north. If they were at that point today, they would be hitting a lot of ice.
Will that ice be melted by the time the Arctic Joule gets there? Anybody's guess, but my guess is that it won't be gone.
I looked at the sudden decline (or halt) to the arctic ice melting that began seven days ago. Going through available records in Cryosphere today, I noted similarities between the current melting curves and the curve of the 2001 season.
This appears to be the longest mid-season non-melting event in 34 years of records, although the 2013 season had a 0.8 million km2 headstart on melting. By mid-September 2001, the passages to the east of Victoria Island were still pretty choked with ice.
I don't think the Arctic Joule will make it to Pond Inlet this year, unless it's under tow.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 2, 2013 22:59:33 GMT
Houston, we have another problem; better call Walt Meijer and Mark Serreze at NSIDC to put the word out these data cannot be allowed to remain as legitimate. Use new smoothing algorithms, say the satellites (all of them) are defective..... make something up, like, "this is all in agreement with AGW theory". Just don't let the public see these charts. Neven is depressed as it is now. If we lose that gullible nitwit, it could mean others might question the Consensus and we're screwed at our next grant review. Sure we'll always have John Cook making up new lies, ignoring the latest research and twisting facts, but he's been outed too many times to be believed anymore. Again, make this TOP priority; alter the data ASAP. We promised Barbie Boxer and her colleagues an ICE FREE Arctic by 2013. We assured them the Arctic was melting away faster year after year, the ice is all rotten and the polar bears would die (true, that lie didn't work out, but we milked it for everything we could) they PAID good money for our predictions and propaganda so they would have an excuse to shut down industry and tax the *hit out of everyone, so FIX it, this is our golden parachute we're talking about! Serreze did a good job ignoring the Bering Sea record ice the last three years after he made up some bull*hit about it being a fluke in 2010 and ignoring it since, but now we hear DMI is reporting the coldest Arctic summer on record, and July melt is the slowest too. Damnit, this wasn't supposed to happen, we're gonna have egg on our face for sure if the low information crowd ever decides to think for themselves. Can't you at least change the color of the line, or do something so it isn't so obvious? I mean, red sticks out like a sore thumb. Has Al Gore been notified? What about Revkin (he's become somewhat unreliable since Climategate)? McKibben is a moron, but make sure he assures his zombies this is all part of AGW and include the usual "worse than we thought" meme. The same for Romm and the rest of the useful idiots. What about the MSM? Whatever you do, don't let some crack reporter get wind this is anything but expected AGW variation, especially Fox News! They'll actually report the Arctic has more ice this year, so use the standard baffle-them-with-BS protocol. Magellan, I hate to break into your verbal vomiting, but the seat needs to be flushed: the kick in the ice extent graph is a direct result of some strong warm summer air pushing forcefully into the Arctic! But Mr. UNO, Mr. Wolf told us on July 26 that the storm in the Arctic would destroy Arctic ice for good. Other AGW true belivers have stated definitively that 2013 is the summer of the ice free arctic. Can one of you explain why the result of the storm is the opposite of what you predicted? Why all of your predictions are so spectacularly wrong? Why we appear to be on track for the highest extent and area in 3 years? Why my several predictions that we would see a gradual increase in summer minimum as the PDO flipped are wrong? Why your idiotic trend line a few weeks ago was, well idiotic? Have you and Mr. Wolf no shame? |
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Post by mkelter on Aug 3, 2013 0:16:03 GMT
168 years and a week ago today. . . Not to be morbid showing a picture of a search team finding a rowboat with bones and skulls. On July 26, 1845, the crews of the ill-fated Franklin Expedition were last seen by Europeans aboard the whaling vessels Prince of Wales and Enterprisein Baffin Bay before disappearing. Two months earlier Sir John Franklin and 128 men set sail from London in two modified warships, Terror and Erebus, with about three years' worth of provisions carrying orders from the Admiralty to explore the Northwest Passage.
The Franklin Expedition route was followed successfully by Amundsen in 1905 and is the same route being followed (in reverse) by the Arctic Joule today.
Three years after the expedition set out, the British admiralty mounted the largest search and rescue mission in history, spending £30 million to equip three teams to bring the men home, or at least find out what had happened to them. But the search parties were unsuccessful and, in a surprising turn, the first news came in 1854 from explorer John Rae. Rae reported having spoken to local Inuit people who told him they had found the remains of a party of white men who had died of starvation in their camp. These men had been driven to the last recourse: cannibalism. This prompted a national outcry in Britain as cannibalism was perceived as an act of uncivilised savagery that threw the expedition into disgrace.
With national pride at stake, the Admiralty mounted one final expedition in 1857. Although they failed to find either the men or the ships, they did recover the only document ever found from the expedition. It revealed that, 10 months after the ships became trapped in the ice, Franklin and several of his officers had died. But the document, which was left in a cairn on King William Island, gave no explanation of the cause of so many deaths, and simply added that the 105 men who were left alive had decided to abandon the icebound ships and make the long trek south to mainland America.
In 1981, a team of scientists led by Owen Beattie, a professor of anthropology at the University of Alberta, began a series of scientific studies of the graves, bodies, and other physical evidence left by Franklin crew members on Beechey Island and King William Island. They concluded that the crew members whose graves had been found on Beechey Island most likely died of pneumonia and perhaps tuberculosis and that lead poisoning may have worsened their health, owing to badly soldered cans held in the ships' food stores. However, it was later suggested that the source of this lead may not have been tinned food, but the distilled water systems fitted to the expedition’s ships. Cut marks on human bones found on King William Island were seen as signs of cannibalism. The combined evidence of all studies suggested that hypothermia, starvation, lead poisoning and disease including scurvy, along with general exposure to a hostile environment whilst lacking adequate clothing and nutrition, killed everyone on the expedition in the years following its last sighting by Europeans in 1845.
In 1903, Amundsen led the first expedition to successfully traverse Canada's Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. With him were six others in a 45-ton fishing vessel, Gjøa. His technique was to use a small ship and hug the coast. Amundsen had the ship outfitted with a small gasoline engine. They travelled via Baffin Bay, the Parry Channel and then south through Peel Sound, James Ross Strait, Simpson Strait and Rae Strait and spent two winters at King William Island in what is today Gjoa Haven, Nunavut, Canada.
The Franklin Expedition had the disadvantage of being preceeded by the Dalton Minimum, which resulted in large icepacks that lingered for years after the end of Solar Cycle 7--the last weak cycle of the solar minimum. The solar cycles preceding both the Amundsen expedition and the Arctic Joule were much stronger solar cycles.
The advantages the Arctic Joule has are the lessons learned by Franklin and Amundsen; the availability of GPS; and periodic aerial resupply.
The Arctic Joule crew also has better places to stay, such as beutiful downtown Paulatuk
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