Arctic Ice

[throttleup]

Great write-up, Mike! Thanks!

[thermostat]

I gather that denialists on the forum are going crazy that there is a relatively cold summer going on in the Arctic this year. This is what scientists call 'weather'. Back in 1970 a year like 2013 would have been quite something.

Calm down bros. As exciting as a relatively cold year is, it's what weather is like.

The current changes in the Jet Stream ought to be inducing discussion, but perhaps this forum is not the best place.

[icefisher]

Aug 3, 2013 4:36:13 GMT thermostat said:

I gather that denialists on the forum are going crazy that there is a relatively cold summer going on in the Arctic this year. This is what scientists call 'weather'. Back in 1970 a year like 2013 would have been quite something.

Calm down bros. As exciting as a relatively cold year is, it's what weather is like.

The current changes in the Jet Stream ought to be inducing discussion, but perhaps this forum is not the best place.

Actually Thermostat, I am just happy I am not out on the arctic ocean rowing a boat right now.

Obviously you have some opinions on when the temperatures are going to turn warm again. Maybe you could gives us some details.

[magellan]

I've seen this before but lost track of it. Numo and Dr. Thermospock like to pretend history began in 1978 when Arctic ice was at its maximum. It appears our modern day Arctic "experts" have attempted to omit history of Arctic ice reports.

From Steve Goddard in its entirety:
stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/31/arctic-ice-growth-since-1971/

Reader Brian D sent over this 1971 National Geographic map, which shows that there is a lot more Arctic sea ice now than there was 42 years ago.


www.maps.com/map.aspx?cid=1537&pid=15903

I remember seeing that map at the time. The next map overlays current ice extent on the 1971 map, with green representing ice present in 2013 that was not present in 1971, and red representing the opposite.



NSIDC likes to pretend that ice has been declining steadily, by starting their graphs near the century maximum in 1978.



sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/May/N_05_plot.png

But sadly for them, the 1990 IPCC report captured the growth in ice prior to 1979.



www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf

NCAR mentioned the ice growth at the time

by Walter Orr Roberts Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations.

www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull165/16505796265.pdf

As did the CIA



www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf

There was so little ice in 1969, that experts thought it would be ice-free “within a decade or two“





Is Mark Serreze hiding the incline of Arctic ice since 1969?

#ArcticIceScam

[icefisher]

Here is a picture of their vessel with someone standing in it for scale. Its huge! I have rowed into 15knot winds with a small aluminum 14foot boat with about 12" of freeboard and wanted to have a much lower profile. Just the wind on my back made going difficult when pulling water with oars. The wind profile of this thing makes it look like a cabin cruiser.







_________________________
Here is an post from the site Mike linked to that points out the wind conditions do not at all look like the gale force winds they reported. Gale force is in excess of 30knots. The fine ripples on these protected waters look in the range of 8 to 15 knots, depending upon which picture you look at. They are likely to see a lot of that kind of weather for the rest of their trip.

www.dehavelle.com/2013/07/row-in-the-arctic/#more-1709

But I think they still have a chance.

First, historically in the next 100 miles or so they should be sheltered from the Beaufort Sea and generally that means better weather. But there is that concern they are exaggerating the Beaufort Sea conditions. The pictures generally depict mild conditions and the boat is tied up. Perhaps they were too tired to take pictures when they first landed and instead took them just before reembarking.

Also, ocean folk know that when the seasons change you generally get some calm weather during the transition. Most winds near land are caused by differential heating and cooling rates between ocean and terra firma. When the seasons change there is a reversal of that differential that usually takes about a month or two to complete. The calm is especially pronounced in the fall when transitioning from warm to cold influences. Presumably fall comes very early in the passage.

But they also have a lot of time to make up.

I hope they make it. I am not concerned that they are trying to drum up excitement in the arctic, I am actually pleased that they care. And I feel that way despite my belief they are wrong about needing to be concerned at this time.

I also appreciate God for timely providing the solar conditions that are going to decide the issue, most likely pretty soon, before we shoot ourselves in the foot.

And I am also very much not concerned about them doing what they are doing because of the potential cost of rescuing them if they get into trouble.

As I see it, society has to be responsible for its own actions. They should not blame their response on people who choose to do what they want to do. 
If society thinks people should not do this kind of stuff, either choose to rescue them without complaint or grow some balls and don't rescue them. 

I have seen a couple of coast guard rescues in big seas first hand where medical cases had to be extracted from an at sea vessel. It was hands down the most impressive piece of heroic work I have ever witnessed. These people are true professionals in every sense of the word and you just don't get that good without a lot of practice. I take my hat off to the people that do it.

My take on it is the guys that say they dread hearing a call to rescue somebody who has done something stupid is most likely a wannabee. Maybe I am missing something but it just doesn't jibe for me that such a person can get to that level of expertise hating what he does. And if you don't go get these people how are you going to be as sharp as you need to be when society deems it important. . . .like extracting downed airmen from behind enemy lines?

I agree with Mike!  "We're good people".  And the meaning of "good" has more than one connotation.

Just my 2 cents.

[nautonnier]

Aug 3, 2013 4:36:13 GMT thermostat said:

I gather that denialists on the forum are going crazy that there is a relatively cold summer going on in the Arctic this year. This is what scientists call 'weather'. Back in 1970 a year like 2013 would have been quite something.

Calm down bros. As exciting as a relatively cold year is, it's what weather is like.

The current changes in the Jet Stream ought to be inducing discussion, but perhaps this forum is not the best place.

Strange.

If you go back in this forum the excitability all seemed to be in the group forecasting predicting projecting huge ice losses this year. Indeed, one could almost call it 'crowing' about how much ice would be lost. There were complaints that the post allowing 'bets' on how much ice extent would remain did not allow extents that were lower.

Now one of the leading members of the 'crowing meltists' has the gall to volte-face and suddenly agree that it is only weather. will we next see a complete 'road to Damascus' moment and agreement that the poles go through sixty year cycles of hard frozen then less frozen.

Currently, the global temperatures are flat or even falling, so the Arctic ice melt was a comfort blanket for the CAGW proponents. There is no knowing how they will react if the Arctic fails to melt away to nothing as advertised. Although, from past experience they will claim that it was just as they forecast and next year will be even 'worse'.

[nautonnier]

Aug 3, 2013 7:06:02 GMT icefisher said:

And I am also very much not concerned about them doing what they are doing because of the potential cost of rescuing them if they get into trouble.

As I see it, society has to be responsible for its own actions. They should not blame their response on people who choose to do what they want to do. 
If society thinks people should not do this kind of stuff, either choose to rescue them without complaint or grow some balls and don't rescue them. 

I have seen a couple of coast guard rescues in big seas first hand where medical cases had to be extracted from an at sea vessel. It was hands down the most impressive piece of heroic work I have ever witnessed. These people are true professionals in every sense of the word and you just don't get that good without a lot of practice. I take my hat off to the people that do it.

My take on it is the guys that say they dread hearing a call to rescue somebody who has done something stupid is most likely a wannabee. Maybe I am missing something but it just doesn't jibe for me that such a person can get to that level of expertise hating what he does. And if you don't go get these people how are you going to be as sharp as you need to be when society deems it important. . . .like extracting downed airmen from behind enemy lines?

I agree with Mike!  "We're good people".  And the meaning of "good" has more than one connotation.

Just my 2 cents.

In the past I have flown with and worked closely with SAR and the other emergency services. They will always try to rescue people even those stupid enough to go 'on the hill' in high heels or flip flops or out to sea in inflatables, or attempting to make money from books by rowing/canoeing in the Arctic. Rescuing people is what they do and it is part of the laws of the sea and air that aid is always provided to others in distress. However, crews often die in their attempts to rescue idiots from their own folly, and there is a huge backup team working to get the rescuers back safely sometimes in insanely bad weather conditions where one mistake can lose the crew.

I cannot help but wonder if these people go out to make money like this knowing that the SAR experts will act as their safety net and pull their nuts out of the fire. I bet that they don't give any of their book royalties to those rescuers. So I don't quite have the same sanguine approach to people putting the lives of others at risk so that they can make money and political points.

[neilhamp]

Nautonnier,
To be fair to Thermo, he is quite a long way down the list of those prepared to publish their predictions
He is forecasting a recovery well above last year's minimum

2.6 greywolf
3.0 or less Cuttydyer
3.1 birder
3.4 UK Met Office (2012 minimum)
3.5 steve, throttlup
3.7 karlox, sigurdur

3.85 Thermostat

3.97 Tamino
3.9 phydeaux, billee49
3.95 radiant
4.0 ARCUS median forecast for July
4.1 dontgetoutmuch (2007 minimum)
4.25 hrizzo
4.3 FineWino (2011 minimum)
4.5 trbixler, neilhamp
4.9 zaphod
6.0 douglavers

[magellan]

Sure they should be rescued, and charged for it. If they are being sponsored, the possibility of needing rescue should be part of the agreement.

In Michigan the Coast Guard now charges for rescuing those who decide to ignore warnings to stay off the ice when it is determined to be unsafe. Their coolers of beer are extra. Since that law passed, the number of those venturing out and expecting a free ride home in a helicopter have been greatly reduced, but there are still a few idiots every year that think they are immune from reality.

This is no different than race track owners being required by their insurance companies to pay for an ambulance at each event.

[icefisher]

Aug 3, 2013 15:40:37 GMT magellan said:

Sure they should be rescued, and charged for it. If they are being sponsored, the possibility of needing rescue should be part of the agreement.

In Michigan the Coast Guard now charges for rescuing those who decide to ignore warnings to stay off the ice when it is determined to be unsafe. Their coolers of beer are extra. Since that law passed, the number of those venturing out and expecting a free ride home in a helicopter have been greatly reduced, but there are still a few idiots every year that think they are immune from reality.

This is no different than race track owners being required by their insurance companies to pay for an ambulance at each event.

Thats certainly fair! Any business sponsorship agreement would open more pockets which can be covered by insurance. Of course it is all voluntary for the adventurer in a pickle who can turn down rescue and avoid the cost.

And if they think the costs are too high they can contract with a private service to provide vessel assistance either on a cost per call basis or an insurance basis where you pay the same the first time whether you need rescuing or not. Maybe the for the 2nd or 3rd venture the cost goes up.

[mkelter]

Working in the Dark?

The intrepid crew of the Arctic Joule broke camp at Paulatuk (69.3514° N, 124.0694° W) late yesterday rowing north into Darnley Bay. Being close to the geographic Arctic Circle, this area still enjoys daylight for 18 hours and 27 minutes per day.

My guess is that the crew left early to get ahead of stiff winds from the east predicted for later today. Based on the Mainstream tracking map, it appeared that rowing was slow going to the northeast. For some unknown reason, the crew suddenly turned back to the southwest and have been rowing in circles for the past few hours.

Keith DeHavelle has been tracking the progress at DeHavelle.com. He currently projects arrival of the Arctic Joule on October 24, 2013--approximately 32.3 days behind schedule.

Time is not necessarily on the Arctic Joule's side for several reasons:

1. I suspect the Mainstream Team planned the route from west to east to allow the channels east of Victoria Island to melt, allowing easier passage. However, the Arctic sea ice extent has taken an unprecedented (at least in terms of the last 34 years) nine day pause in melting, which could have some effect on melting east of Victoria Island when the crew finally makes a turn to the north.

2. Looking at the Sunrise-Sunset tables provided by Anthropolis.com I noted that the work day (by daylight hours) will be down to 15 hours at the Arctic Circle by the end of August and 11.3 hours by the end of September. If the crew arrives at Point Inlet on 24 October, they will have only three hours of daylight to row. I don't suspect the Mainstream designers equipped the Arctic Joule with running lights.

3. The longer that the crew is out there, the greater the risk that somebody gets sick. These are strong young men, but my experiences in Ranger School taught me that prolonged conditions of physical, nutritional, and mental stresses can cause a weakening of the immune systems, even in young healthy men. If one person gets sick in a four-man crew, the stresses on the remaining crew become greater.

[sigurdur]

The whole idea is a publicity stunt that will not turn out well unless they come to their senses soon.
They are not on Lake Superior.

[cuttydyer]

Steven Goddard reports: Arctic Sea Ice Obliterates Record For Slow Melt

"Normally the past two weeks produce the rapidest melt of the year. This year there has been almost no loss of ice area since July 24."



Below is a quote from the "Arctic Sea Ice Blog":

"Like I've been saying for weeks now a new record is a very difficult proposition. But even ending below 2007, 2010 and 2011 will be quite a feat, and that's something I didn't expect. At least not like this. I've seen slowdowns before, but this is out of this world."

Link: neven1.typepad.com/blog/

[Andrew]

Aug 4, 2013 13:56:09 GMT mkelter said:

Working in the Dark?

The intrepid crew of the Arctic Joule broke camp at Paulatuk (69.3514° N, 124.0694° W) late yesterday rowing north into Darnley Bay. Being close to the geographic Arctic Circle, this area still enjoys daylight for 18 hours and 27 minutes per day.

My guess is that the crew left early to get ahead of stiff winds from the east predicted for later today. Based on the Mainstream tracking map, it appeared that rowing was slow going to the northeast. For some unknown reason, the crew suddenly turned back to the southwest and have been rowing in circles for the past few hours.

Keith DeHavelle has been tracking the progress at DeHavelle.com. He currently projects arrival of the Arctic Joule on October 24, 2013--approximately 32.3 days behind schedule.

Time is not necessarily on the Arctic Joule's side for several reasons:

1. I suspect the Mainstream Team planned the route from west to east to allow the channels east of Victoria Island to melt, allowing easier passage. However, the Arctic sea ice extent has taken an unprecedented (at least in terms of the last 34 years) nine day pause in melting, which could have some effect on melting east of Victoria Island when the crew finally makes a turn to the north.

2. Looking at the Sunrise-Sunset tables provided by Anthropolis.com I noted that the work day (by daylight hours) will be down to 15 hours at the Arctic Circle by the end of August and 11.3 hours by the end of September. If the crew arrives at Point Inlet on 24 October, they will have only three hours of daylight to row. I don't suspect the Mainstream designers equipped the Arctic Joule with running lights.

3. The longer that the crew is out there, the greater the risk that somebody gets sick. These are strong young men, but my experiences in Ranger School taught me that prolonged conditions of physical, nutritional, and mental stresses can cause a weakening of the immune systems, even in young healthy men. If one person gets sick in a four-man crew, the stresses on the remaining crew become greater.

I dont think the ice will be much of a problem in terms of there being no potential route forwards for probably another month or more, but it will be miserable sweating immensely while sheltering in modern clothing from a depressingly cold relentless wind and continual sea spray with only a puny ability to manoever around even large gaps in drifting ice where failure to get to safety involves danger of death in totally miserable circumstances.

From my experiences of a much more intense cold in Finland if you are dry and your clothes can ventilate it is not really much different to any other activity but once you are wet the entire dynamic is fairly quickly life threatening. Even in mild conditions a human cannot survive cold, wind and water in their clothing. The 'warmth' of summer in these areas might have misled them into not realising what they were facing? Even the two British army arctic experts in their light weight sailing boat struggled with the cold of the arctic summer a few years ago and stopped at Goa for the season. These guys must now be dreaming of Cambridge bay only!

It seems they were 'out of their depth' from shortly after they began. Physical power cannot overcome that because as you say they will be ground down physically and psychologically. Instead of striking out to get there to hell or high water it appears they are now timidly taking the long way around via the coast.

Contrast that with the epic adventurers led by Fridtjof Nansen, who burnt their boats when setting off to cross unexplored Greenland for the very first time so they knew there was no turning back in any circumstances and that philosophy was built into the expedition planning from day one.



Death or Glory! is certainly no longer part of the current mission, and dial a rescue sort of makes it all a bit pointless anyway.

[magellan]

Aug 5, 2013 15:57:39 GMT cuttydyer said:

Steven Goddard reports: Arctic Sea Ice Obliterates Record For Slow Melt

"Normally the past two weeks produce the rapidest melt of the year. This year there has been almost no loss of ice area since July 24."


Below is a quote from the "Arctic Sea Ice Blog":

"Like I've been saying for weeks now a new record is a very difficult proposition. But even ending below 2007, 2010 and 2011 will be quite a feat, and that's something I didn't expect. At least not like this. I've seen slowdowns before, but this is out of this world."

Link: neven1.typepad.com/blog/

Members of the death spiral cult here (you know who you are) receive much of their indoctrination from Neven's blog. I'm sure in time he'll have a plausible explanation that will keep his fellow worshipers from backsliding.

I wonder if Graywolf/Tstat remember all the times I heckled them about the Alaskan side of the Arctic returning to the cold phase (which includes the Bering Sea) which they totally ignore, and questioned why it wouldn't at some point begin to reverse on the Eastern end. Is this the year for that? It's hard to say because the AMO has not yet crossed into its negative phase, but I must say it is somewhat enjoyable watching the howling and gnashing of teeth.