Arctic Ice

[cuttydyer]

I can't believe that I didn't get a nibble with my juicy bait:



Oh well, the reason for yesterday's apparent catastrophic melt:



A missing sector...which has now reappeared (on the 14th).

Link: saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/conc.shtml

[trbixler]

Cutty
I think you told them it was bait.

[magellan]

Neven just soiled his pants again.

[sigurdur]

It is the soot I tell ya.....it is the soot. Numerouno...here ya go!

"The Arctic is especially sensitive to black carbon emissions from within the region"

wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/13/in-the-arctic-nearby-soot-may-be-a-larger-forcing-than-co2/

[nonentropic]

it would be very interesting if the Chinese and other larger newly industrial countries were to substitute their coal burning with clean green shale gas.

less CO2 less soot an estimate of the computer modeled factor impact would be in the 10 area.

bangs for bucks for the green movement are stupendous.

the problem is that the watermelon people are not interested in the planet, the CAGW program is a trogon horse for political change and yes its the centrally planned model that is the top of the pops.

[magellan]

Aug 15, 2013 19:16:56 GMT nonentropic said:

it would be very interesting if the Chinese and other larger newly industrial countries were to substitute their coal burning with clean green shale gas.

less CO2 less soot an estimate of the computer modeled factor impact would be in the 10 area.

bangs for bucks for the green movement are stupendous.

the problem is that the watermelon people are not interested in the planet, the CAGW program is a trogon horse for political change and yes its the centrally planned model that is the top of the pops.

Coal plants in the U.S. are much cleaner burning than previous decades. There's no reason to stop burning coal other than having a political agenda to kill industry and promote government control of all energy/agricultural resources. The Chinese (especially) and developing nations just need to catch up and copy our methods of coal burning.

Further:
www.foxnews.com/science/2013/02/20/coal-cleanest-energy-source-there-is/

Too bad the main premise is to limit CO2 emissions; it is plant food and we need more, not less of it. However, unless CO2 is the only thing considered a pollutant in coal burning, when it says 99% of the pollution is eliminated during the process, the eco-fascists should be jumping for joy. Does anyone think Hansen will praise such technological progress?

[nonentropic]

fair point but gas is a very nice fuel and it does have a modern ring. best of all it irritates the hell out of the peak everything brigade.

[cuttydyer]

Steven Goddard reports: Over the last three weeks, Arctic ice area has declined by 662,000 km², which is 60% of normal and the slowest on record.



This has been caused by the coldest Arctic summer on COI record.

[magellan]

Aug 16, 2013 6:01:00 GMT nonentropic said:

fair point but gas is a very nice fuel and it does have a modern ring. best of all it irritates the hell out of the peak everything brigade.

It would seem using coal for electricity and gas for heating makes much more sense.

[magellan]

Aug 13, 2013 19:38:26 GMT socold said:

The only thing failing is Arctic Sea Ice. Get back to me when it actually stabilizes for a substantial length of time, eg 5 years. If it goes up for 1 or two years but overall keeps falling we can't have this ridiculous situation where you guys alternate between silence and claiming it's recovering. Don't you feel even slightly guilty for wrongly claiming sea ice was recovering after 2007 only to have seen it plummet even further?

Just to correct your perceptions, here's what Tamino had to say last November:
"But I don’t expect 2013 to break the 2012 record, in fact I don’t expect the 2012 record to be broken until 2015 or 2016, and possibly even a few years later. That’s the nature of fluctuation, even when the trend continues."

Wow, Tamino figured out Arctic ice data see-saws back and forth. What a genius.

Nice that you didn't provide a link.

Here's the full context of the quote:

tamino.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/sea-ice-forecasts/

This model predicts the ice edge will reach latitude 79.29N, with extent equal to 3.97 million km^2.

So there you have it, four models, all statistical, with four different — but only slightly so — predictions. For the record, the “old method” predicts 4.03, but (for not entirely scientific reasons) I think I prefer the final model at 3.97. And you can attach a “+/- 0.9? to both of them.

The fact that all these models give nearly the same forecast is simply a reflection of the fact that they’re all short-range statistical forecasts based on the same central idea: that the trend will continue. There will be fluctuation of course, and at +/- 0.9 it can be considerable. But I don’t expect 2013 to break the 2012 record, in fact I don’t expect the 2012 record to be broken until 2015 or 2016, and possibly even a few years later. That’s the nature of fluctuation, even when the trend continues. And I do expect that the trend will continue, for a very simple reason: global warming.

All Tamino is doing is extrapolating a trend, assuming it will never change in sign. What do you think socold, if this were 1998, would Tamino have predicted the global SAT trend to continue, increase, decrease or stall the next 15 years? Duh. Then again, it is this same Tamino that tortures every data set he gets his hands on, and deleted multiple past threads that put himself in a bad light. Some of his bilge is however available at ClimateAudit.

Assuming a trend is a constant usually doesn't work out well

[magellan]

socold, has Tamino addressed these issues? How could he build his model based on 1 parameter, that being his belief system? He's a legend in his own mind. The man deserves no respect.

North Atlantic OHC has not been increasing for 10+ years




North Pacific OHC has not been increasing for 10+ years



In the Arctic region north of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, 60-75N, OHC has been dropping sharply.



I have read OHC data in the extreme northern latitudes is spotty, but here it is nonetheless. 65-90N



There are specific lon/lat for the extratropical N Pacific and N Atlantic regions which I don't care to tackle today, but it is clear as a whole, the major oceans that contribute to the Arctic waters are not "heating up". In fact it appears the further north, the more OHC is dropping.

The AMO appears to be beginning its descent to the negative (cool) phase.

[sigurdur]

The last SSW was not only large in area but also long in duration. Heat is transported, bit not rapidly in the Arctic. Even during the summer melt season the troposphere is shallow.

I have posted numerous links to scientific literature in regards to Black Carbon. In my humble opinion, the true nature of the Arctic is beginning to overwhelm the soot load. That is a mighty accomplishment.

[trbixler]

[sigurdur]

The odds of the Arctic melting this summer now appear to be falling rapidly....Oh wait....the temp is as well.

[nonentropic]

the average is well down but interesting that on the WUWT sea ice site they have an arctic temperature anomaly map which has recorded virtually the whole region as above average for months.

who is lying. if the ice grows rapidly and early we will know who.