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Post by icefisher on Aug 17, 2013 4:08:04 GMT
the average is well down but interesting that on the WUWT sea ice site they have an arctic temperature anomaly map which has recorded virtually the whole region as above average for months. who is lying. if the ice grows rapidly and early we will know who. Pretty much lays out the state of climate science. Nobody can agree on anything. The atmosphere does not match the lapse rate but it does sort of within the range of a pure lapse rate and a lapse rate modified by latent heat. That would suggest there is a rather simple answer if anybody could agree on what radiation interfaces do and what conduction does. I do know that radiation cannot be ignored. But Iceskater came in months ago and claimed that folks selling radiation control were a lot of snake oil salesmen. Indeed if you try to sell radiation control to an eskimo you are a quack. But if you sell radiation control to an Arab you are a God. And that is because an eskimo can never get too much radiation and an Arab can never get too little. |
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 17, 2013 7:20:29 GMT
Very interesting graphs Magellan
It is unfortunate that the satellite data started in 1979.
The low point of the AMO cool phase
Socold said Get back to me when it actually stabilizes for a substantial length of time, eg 5 years
Only time will tell
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Post by socold on Aug 17, 2013 9:21:00 GMT
I don't say that to be difficult I say it because we've had one or two years up before followed by four years later a new record and a continued decline. One year up is definitely a "one strike" but I am insisting on three strikes before out (or five).
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Post by numerouno on Aug 17, 2013 11:13:07 GMT
Unusual atmospheric disturbances have pushed warm air to enter deep into the Arctic several times, creating heavy overcast as a side effect. The Sun folks please notice the effects of the everyday direct light!
The sea ice dislodged and dispersed by the currents and winds will be transported south during the coming winter as per the usual routine. The fast oscillation of the ice extent we can see is a direct result of the thinning ice.
When the clear weather returns any given time during the next summers, the process will continue unstoppably.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 17, 2013 16:19:36 GMT
Unusual atmospheric disturbances have pushed warm air to enter deep into the Arctic several times, creating heavy overcast as a side effect. The Sun folks please notice the effects of the everyday direct light! The sea ice dislodged and dispersed by the currents and winds will be transported south during the coming winter as per the usual routine. The fast oscillation of the ice extent we can see is a direct result of the thinning ice. When the clear weather returns any given time during the next summers, the process will continue unstoppably. The norm for the summer time arctic is for overcast foggy weakly sunlit skies. |
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Post by icefisher on Aug 17, 2013 16:33:17 GMT
Unusual atmospheric disturbances have pushed warm air to enter deep into the Arctic several times, creating heavy overcast as a side effect. The Sun folks please notice the effects of the everyday direct light! The sea ice dislodged and dispersed by the currents and winds will be transported south during the coming winter as per the usual routine. The fast oscillation of the ice extent we can see is a direct result of the thinning ice. When the clear weather returns any given time during the next summers, the process will continue unstoppably. Don't be shy Numno! Call it what it is! UNPRECEDENTED ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES! And think global not local! We haven't seen what more than 11 years of global cooling looks like when its manifested in the Arctic ever! And we have never seen so much arctic cooling! Its truly wondrous you are still making predictions while we experience this never seen and unprecedented event! What do you use to make such predictions? A crystal ball? If not what? |
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Post by icefisher on Aug 17, 2013 16:42:08 GMT
Hmmmmmmmmmm  Strange days have found us Strange days have tracked us down They're going to destroy Our casual joys We shall go on playing Or find a new town Yeah! Strange eyes fill strange rooms Voices will signal their tired end The hostess is grinning Her guests sleep from sinning Hear me talk of sin And you know this is it Yeah! Strange days have found us And through their strange hours We linger alone Bodies confused Memories misused As we run from the day To a strange night of stone |
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Post by throttleup on Aug 18, 2013 2:48:58 GMT
Unusual atmospheric disturbances have pushed warm air to enter deep into the Arctic several times, creating heavy overcast as a side effect. The Sun folks please notice the effects of the everyday direct light! The sea ice dislodged and dispersed by the currents and winds will be transported south during the coming winter as per the usual routine. The fast oscillation of the ice extent we can see is a direct result of the thinning ice. When the clear weather returns any given time during the next summers, the process will continue unstoppably. Numo, are you saying that the warm air in the Arctic is what's causing the unusual cold spell? |
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 18, 2013 6:29:48 GMT
I have clicked through all those arctic temperature profiles at ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpI cannot find ANY year in which there is such an early drop in temperature as this year The arctic temperature has been below the daily mean for the whole of May, June, July and very likely August. Wow! Can anyone find another year like this in the records? Conditions this year in the Arctic are very unusual If it is anything to do with the sun it certainly will get very cold up there when the solar minimum sets in |
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Post by flearider on Aug 18, 2013 7:54:11 GMT
neil your right as far as I can see and the cold looks to be on the move as well weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.giftop of the nwt in Canada showing -5 and below .. with the heat around Greenland fading as well ... go buy some woolys as it's going to get cold ...i'm thinking snow for uk in oct |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 19, 2013 10:51:29 GMT
Unusual atmospheric disturbances have pushed warm air to enter deep into the Arctic several times, creating heavy overcast as a side effect. The Sun folks please notice the effects of the everyday direct light! The sea ice dislodged and dispersed by the currents and winds will be transported south during the coming winter as per the usual routine. The fast oscillation of the ice extent we can see is a direct result of the thinning ice. When the clear weather returns any given time during the next summers, the process will continue unstoppably. Numo, are you saying that the warm air in the Arctic is what's causing the unusual cold spell? Insolation is a major factor in the Arctic summer, as the sun is up 24/7, and the area then gets the insolation of the tropics. If there is a prolonged overcast, as was the case over the past month(s) the temps will drop from from the average. The overcast, in turn, is caused by some major disturbances caused by the warm air pushing in from the south. There is no magic to this, or are you saying the mysterious cooling can set in within a month or so? I can understand that some people would love to see things that just aren't there. |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 19, 2013 10:59:16 GMT
Wow! Can anyone find another year like this in the records? Can anyone find a better linear trend fitting than this one I just did on the graph?  |
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Post by Andrew on Aug 19, 2013 11:12:33 GMT
Numo, are you saying that the warm air in the Arctic is what's causing the unusual cold spell? Insolation is a major factor in the Arctic summer, as the sun is up 24/7, and the area then gets the insolation of the tropics. If there is a prolonged overcast, as was the case over the past month(s) the temps will drop from from the average. The overcast, in turn, is caused by some major disturbances caused by the warm air pushing in from the south. There is no magic to this, or are you saying the mysterious cooling can set in within a month or so? I can understand that some people would love to see things that just aren't there. Overcast is normal or typical in the summer time arctic. Around 6 days out of 7 it will be overcast |
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Post by magellan on Aug 19, 2013 15:25:41 GMT
Wow! Can anyone find another year like this in the records? Can anyone find a better linear trend fitting than this one I just did on the graph? Michael Mann and Phil Jones couldn't have done it better. Well, maybe a bit better. Do you think it will have an adverse effect on the rotten, decaying ice we were told was rapidly disappearing? It looks like Graywolf's undecipherable lectures will need to be revised slightly. |
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Post by magellan on Aug 19, 2013 16:35:22 GMT
Numo, are you saying that the warm air in the Arctic is what's causing the unusual cold spell? Insolation is a major factor in the Arctic summer, as the sun is up 24/7, and the area then gets the insolation of the tropics. If there is a prolonged overcast, as was the case over the past month(s) the temps will drop from from the average. The overcast, in turn, is caused by some major disturbances caused by the warm air pushing in from the south. There is no magic to this, or are you saying the mysterious cooling can set in within a month or so? I can understand that some people would love to see things that just aren't there. Ah, that "unusual" weather. Kind of like the wind/ocean currents responsible for 2007 and storm in 2013. And this is all consistent with AGW......got it. It is safe to say that no matter what happens, it is in total agreement with AGW. That's a nice theory you've latched on to there Numo. Basically what you're saying is, anomalously decreased cloud cover in 2007 was caused by AGW, and increased cloud cover is caused by AGW as well. IIRC you or Tstat claimed that cloudier weather in the Arctic would "trap" heat and make it even warmer. After all, that's what the standard theory says; cloudier nights=warmer, clear skies=colder. I wish you guys would make up your minds. BTW, what is the normal cloud cover range over the Arctic? The contribution of cloud and radiation anomalies to the 2007 Arctic sea ice extent minimum |
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