Arctic Ice

[dontgetoutmuch]

Aug 26, 2013 7:50:41 GMT cuttydyer said:

Aug 26, 2013 6:26:52 GMT numerouno said:

The big picture. July 2013 was 6th warmest recorded worldwide. Notice the penetration of warm air deep into the Arctic over the North Atlantic.

Notice how both poles are cooler than average.

The above image looks bad. However I have two serious problems with it.


My new home is in the Chesapeake Bay area which is one of the "much above normal" areas in NOAA's above image. I checked the official NWS records for here, and the average temp for July was actually more then half a degree below normal.

Let me repeat that. The actual measured temperatures were more than half a degree below normal. Yet NOAA's "Percentiles" show the area to be warmer than average.

Next, take a look at each of the "Record warmest" areas. Does anything stand out? It strikes me that almost (Yes with a few exeptions) every one the "Record" regions is in a place where there are very, very few people. I wonder why this is...

[sigurdur]

I think the baseline is for the 1950's. If it isn't, this is total garbage.

July for my area was 7.3F below average. So to make a statement, you use a different average....something that fits the idea....ya know?

Funny how corn is so far behind........yet we are "normal".

"Due to a season of cool, wet weather conditions, farmers are facing a very real possibility of harvesting corn that may not be fully mature.

farmprogress.com/story-worries-grow-late-maturing-corn-9-101709-nl_7_nlr_11?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=26+August+2013

[dontgetoutmuch]

Uh Oh!!! I'm going to have to eat a little crow on my above post. The temps I used to calculate my local "Average" was just the high temps against the "Normal" highs. (Sigurdur, the baseline in this case being 1981-2010) However, when I also included the measured low temps against the the record, the actual average for July was above the normal by almost a full degree. (Locally!)

While that is interesting, it does sort of invalidate my above post. Hmmm, should I delete it, or leave it, and this...

[numerouno]

Aug 26, 2013 11:57:41 GMT sigurdur said:

nummerouno:
Kinda funny how the data is available, but not shown in your map isn't it?

Apparently data don't qualify for averaging.

Moreover, you guys would be complaining all over the place if they coloured large areas of the map from a single measurement.

[numerouno]

Aug 26, 2013 13:10:55 GMT dontgetoutmuch said:

Next, take a look at each of the "Record warmest" areas. Does anything stand out? It strikes me that almost (Yes with a few exeptions) every one the "Record" regions is in a place where there are very, very few people. I wonder why this is...

Inverse Urban Heat Island effect?

[trbixler]

[trbixler]

[sigurdur]

Doesn't look like the Arctic will see 273.15K for awhile. Oh well, some things are too good to last like warm temps.

[cuttydyer]

Sig,

Your soot is back in the news:

"They concluded that increased soot emissions as a result of the industrialization are to blame for the glacial melt, as soot in the atmosphere was deposited on the glaciers via precipitation, and once there led to an increased absorption of sunlight."



Link: news.xinhuanet.com/english/sci/2013-09/03/c_125304977.htm

[sigurdur]

Anyone who has observed dirty snow/ice understands this.

[magellan]

They don't know squat.

[icefisher]

Looking at the various arctic expeditions this year it appears that what we are looking at is ice conditions that have periodically occurred throughout the 20th century.

The Bernard Explorer was exploring a historic expedition of 1913 to 1918 where the ship was eventually lost on Banks Island. Today the explorers are blocked by ice as was the expedition but this years expedition did not make it as far as the 1913 expedition. They never made it as far north as the Gore Islands and Cora Harbour before abandoning the effort. canadianarcticexpedition.com/cae-blog.

This expedition was celebrating day by day diary entries of the 1913 expedition and was manned by some of the ancestors of the leader of the expedition. But were blocked by ice from duplicating the feats of the 1913 expedition.

Meanwhile on the lower shallow water passage several boats are blocked from the Bellot Strait near Port Kennedy and ancient Fort Ross.

It was as I recall 1934 the Hudson Bay company completed a passage here with a "relay" of 2 boats. In that year supplies were offloaded at the Hudson Bay trading post at Fort Ross, as planned, by a boat from the east. Then a 2nd boat with supplies from the trading post navigated the Bellot Strait to deliver the supplies to other outposts of the Hudson Bay company. This year's boats still have a chance of getting through because ice is still melting in the lower latitudes. But its not going to be an indication of less ice.

And of course we have a number of complete passages besides that from Amundsen and Larsen.

All in all there appears to be zero basis for claiming that ice levels are at unprecedented levels of the past 100 years much less a longer period of time.

[trbixler]

Ah the CO2 of it all.

"Global warming? No, actually we're cooling, claim scientists"



" There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, they equivalent of almost a million square miles.

In a rebound from 2012's record low an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.

A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century. "

link

[karlox]

Sept 8, 2013 13:20:01 GMT trbixler said:

Ah the CO2 of it all.

"Global warming? No, actually we're cooling, claim scientists"



" There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, they equivalent of almost a million square miles.

In a rebound from 2012's record low an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.

A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century. "

link

But we should remember that we are comparing with record-low year 2012:
Artic Sea Ice Monitor

[cuttydyer]

The "sunshinehours" blog reports: "Two Increases In a Row For Arctic Sea Ice Extent"



Arctic Sea Ice Extent increased for the 2nd day in a row. The increase was 19,270 sq km. Minimum is getting close. Yesterday was day 250. Day 248 is the lowest value for 2013.

If day 248 turned out to be the minimum, it would be tied for third earliest with 1994. 1987?s minimum was day 245. 1997?s was 246.



Link: sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/two-increases-in-a-row-for-arctic-sea-ice-extent/