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Post by glennkoks on Sept 28, 2012 3:58:10 GMT
magellan,
To clarify the terms of our wager if gold closes on December 31st, 2013 20% higher than its 2012 peak(which will not be determined until December 31st 2012) and the Dow closes 20% lower than its 2012 peak I owe you the spot price of one ounce of gold.
If at least one of these events do not occur you owe me one of you're gold coins.
Is this correct? If so I accept you're wager.
I will even give you the option to double the above wager after Mr. Obama wins in November.
Do we have a bet?
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 28, 2012 4:00:15 GMT
thats a one ounce gold coin
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Post by magellan on Sept 29, 2012 5:11:42 GMT
magellan, To clarify the terms of our wager if gold closes on December 31st, 2013 20% higher than its 2012 peak(which will not be determined until December 31st 2012) and the Dow closes 20% lower than its 2012 peak I owe you the spot price of one ounce of gold. If at least one of these events do not occur you owe me one of you're gold coins. Is this correct? If so I accept you're wager. I will even give you the option to double the above wager after Mr. Obama wins in November. Do we have a bet? That was not my offer. Glennkoks, I'm not going back and forth. The bet was offered and a damn good one for those who think the economy is recovering and the stock market is in fine shape. You're not confident enough to wager a 20% swing in gold vs stocks? I think gold is going up by year's end which is why I locked it in yesterday, that was my hedge, but left it open for the Dow to rise during the next 90 days. Surely the Feds pumping unlimited billions could only cause it to rise and the economy to flourish in the next 15 months ;D ;D ;D The deal is off. You may be right that the Dow has seen its peak for the year, but I don't fall for fool's wagers. I'm wondering though why George Soros (Obama donor sometimes mistaken for Bigfoot sitings, but a dangerous man just he same), who two years ago sold off gold saying it was the ultimate asset bubble, is buying it up again....a lot of it. So is John Paulson who bet against the sub-prime scheme in 2007. His company now has over 40% of its fund in gold. There are others. What do they know? I don't claim to be an expert in all these things, but something is brewing and it doesn't look good. My first large purchase was the coin below and about 18-20 similar 15 years ago or so on the advice of a slick salesman who convinced me it was a good investment. It took 7 years to break even. In 2001 I learned from that mistake and only bought bullion or standard coins (and some stocks) from then on. For those thinking of buying precious metals, do not buy numismatic coins unless you know the government is going to confiscate gold again; highly unlikely anytime soon. I decided to keep them "just in case". This is what you would have been playing for;  Edit: and the rest of the wretched numismatic coins. It does say something about the state of the U.S. dollar though when you can get ripped off and still triple your money over a relatively short time.  |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 29, 2012 14:34:10 GMT
magellan,
Those are beautiful coins and it looks like you timed the market perfectly but personally I think the run up on gold is over for the present and while I see small gains I don't see anything near what we have seen over the last five or six years.
Historically gold has done very poorly in comparision to the market. Granted these times are not "normal". With that being said, I don't expect the 10% gains in the market to continue much longer. I think we are going to muddle through a few years of low if any growth and don't expect much gains in either gold or the market.
But good luck and we will just have to see how the bet would of turned out if we could have came to terms.
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Post by magellan on Sept 30, 2012 17:08:47 GMT
magellan, Those are beautiful coins and it looks like you timed the market perfectly but personally I think the run up on gold is over for the present and while I see small gains I don't see anything near what we have seen over the last five or six years. Historically gold has done very poorly in comparision to the market. Granted these times are not "normal". With that being said, I don't expect the 10% gains in the market to continue much longer. I think we are going to muddle through a few years of low if any growth and don't expect much gains in either gold or the market. But good luck and we will just have to see how the bet would of turned out if we could have came to terms. I am not happy that gold is rising. It is a not a good sign for our currency or the economy. The reason why I chose one of those coins is because although they may be "beautiful" I would much rather get rid of them. Their numismatic worth have been declining over the past few years which means only the precious metal portion of them are truly valuable; another sign the economy is stagnant. When gold hits 2000, I'll sell them for spot price because nobody wants them! So in reality they weren't a good investment. One blog I read occasionally (a few days a week) is ZeroHedge. Lots of hard data and commentary. This is interesting: www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-28/winners-and-losers-qe3After my huge mistake buying those coins, it just so happened a few years later gold bottomed out. It was then I learned why it was a mistake; not because gold wasn't a good investment, I didn't understand the economics of it. From the link: As we end the month and quarter, we remind ourselves that a massive amount of the recent 'strength' in risk markets occurred on just two days - ECB and Fed statements. Reflecting on the post-euphoria 'sell-the-news' or BTFD meme, we look at how various asset classes and securities have performed post-QEternity. Two lessons are clear: Front-Run The Fed's action (every time) and Buy Precious Metals.
Silver and Gold are the big winners from the 9/12 (pre-Bernanke) close - followed closely by the Long Bond. Oil and European stocks have lost notable ground and US equities are practically unchanged - having given up their post-QE3 pop...
Front-Run The Fed's action (every time) and Buy Precious Metals. That one sentence has been the basis for my decisions and future considerations. So, as I said before, gold and silver are doing just fine www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-28/gold-and-silver-lead-everything-week-month-quarter-year-dateWe shall see after all the wiggles and see sawing in the coming months, but for anyone to think we've "been through this before" is living in a fantasy world. |
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 1, 2012 12:35:47 GMT
magellan,
Have you ever considered a gold ETF? Or do you prefer physical gold?
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Post by magellan on Oct 1, 2012 13:30:53 GMT
magellan, Have you ever considered a gold ETF? Or do you prefer physical gold? I prefer physical gold and silver although do have some in stocks, but not ETF. Sure an ETF is convenient, but I'm not a trader or a collector, just trying to protect the value of our money as the government continues to destroy the dollar. Also you can't trade with paper; silver buys the bread, gold buys the bakery. One would have to be completely off their rocker to believe inflation is only at 2% or whatever phony number the government passes off based on CPI. Wow how the words of the Fed can influence the market. Now it should be obvious why I wanted the price locked in last week. www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-01/permadove-chuck-evans-speaks-precious-metals-soar |
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 7, 2012 15:38:41 GMT
Magellan you asked:
"I'm wondering though why George Soros (Obama donor sometimes mistaken for Bigfoot sitings, but a dangerous man just he same), who two years ago sold off gold saying it was the ultimate asset bubble, is buying it up again....a lot of it. So is John Paulson who bet against the sub-prime scheme in 2007. His company now has over 40% of its fund in gold. There are others. What do they know? "
Watch how the economies of the EU (Etats Uni) and the EU are being driven in parallel - the choreography and effort to keep them in synch is amazing. They both have the same problem - they have largely killed off their heavy industries which were the basis of their wealth and have replaced them with service industries which are at best symbiotic and usually parasitic (vide bankers). Yet despite hammering the wealth creators like industry and agriculture, both EU and EU have increased greatly their 'dependency/entitlement cultures' which are inflation linked and therefore are unaffected by NPV. This leads to the Thatcher problem - they have run out of other people's money. The PIIGS got there first but California and other states are accelerating their way to the black hole by overtaxing the wealth creators and increasing entitlement spending.
The 'only way out' of this it is claimed (if you believe the ex Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley bureaucrats who are now in positions of influence in both EU and EU) is to devalue the fiat currency - euphemistically called Quantitative Easing. If George Soros is involved and it appears he is - there is a huge crash about to occur and he hopes to profit from it. One outcome could easily be a return to a 'gold standard' - but what do I know - I just watch the playing going on and how the patterns match so precisely.
This has been a long and well planned carve up. Even persuading the Federal government to abandon grain reserves - and you won't have heard anything about 'food mountains' and 'wine lakes' from the EU either. It looks like the world is going into a period of less food and cold - and the governments have been persuaded to get rid of food reserves and cripple power generation -- by the same people that hope to gain from the crash into the Malthusian/ Fabian new world order of Saul Alinky and Cloward Piven. Note these people are in it for power and personal gain - not for the good of the world.
Contrary to the Agenda21 driven UN and their sustainable greens - the people who are going to lose big time over this will be the 'third world' and the poor. Already (to quote FOIA2011) every 5 seconds a child dies from hunger and a mother every minute. If we go back to the 70's climate with crippled power and no food stocks the world will not be a pretty place. Companies from UK and China are grubbing out prime African farm land and planting alien Eucalyptus that is almost impossible to remove - under the guise of Carbon Credits - or razing equatorial forests for monoculture palm oil plantations; its like the Scottish Clearances in many many parts of the third world.
So cripple industry and power generation, remove food stores, buy up and destroy 3rd world subsistence farmland; debase first world currencies and run up huge debts (both EU and EU) - then wait for the expected drop in temperatures and the resulting food riots in both first and third world countries. All so a few hundred 'humans' can gain more power and wealth and take over world governance.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 7, 2012 19:00:27 GMT
Arrogant people who know better than a market they are the enemy of the earth.
The subject is no fossil fuels. That is plane silly the issue is as always prices. When we steal land of people for a carbon credit joke we steal the people's future .
My answer is the same as the ex prime minister of Malaysia who was being derided by a bunch of arrogant westerners for reducing forest cover from 90% to 75% he replied ring me when the UK who were 80% and were at that time down to 20% he said ring me when you are back up to 50%.
The world will have a balance for eternity of supply and demand in energy there can be no gap outside of inventory shifts. Price is where you observe availability. That is driven by technology, politics, taxs, wars, cross elasticities etc.
I'm not compelled to believe that the poor of the world are not better off in a high energy cost world.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 9, 2012 15:00:46 GMT
Now the IMF is warning on the same front... choreography again.. “A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more lasting component,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report. “The answer depends on whether European and U.S. policy makers deal proactively with their major short-term economic challenges.”www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/imf-sees-alarmingly-high-risk-of-deeper-global-slump.htmlProactive and - "European and U.S. policy makers" are not normally seen in the same sentence.  |
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 9, 2012 15:04:17 GMT
The USA has an election coming up. Both President Obama and Mr. Romney desire the same eventual outcome. A National Debt so high that the country can no longer be raided. The wealth transfer started in the 80's under Reagan and has only accelerated.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 3, 2015 14:21:59 GMT
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Post by walnut on Nov 3, 2015 14:30:34 GMT
Oklahoma has > 3.0 earthquakes daily now, and occasional 4+ earthquakes. We had one yesterday that was 4.1 and I remember a 4.4. Apparently at some level it has been legally declared that these are due to the oil and gas industry fracking. Just lately I have read that class action lawsuits are about to be raised. I am wondering how much of a damper this will prove to be. Not peak oil, but could become somewhat of an issue I am thinking.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 3, 2015 16:59:27 GMT
Is there a lot of fracking in OK?
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Post by walnut on Nov 3, 2015 18:27:58 GMT
From what I understand, yes a lot of fracking in OK for the last several years. Rejuvenating old fields and making productive other marginal fields.
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