Is this normal?

[gaikokujin]

Greetings.

I am just a noob at sun things.

But been following a couple weeks now.

Is these things normal or is there happening something extraordinary in our sun now?

Just was thinking, so many x flares and NASA says there should be a smaller solar cycle this year, than before..

Please tell me what you think, you professionals, thank you!

- Henri

[skypilot]

Watts up with that

NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
Posted on June 8, 2012 by Anthony Watts

Compiled by Joe D’aleo WeatherBell

via NASA MSFC

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

The prediction method has been slightly revised. The previous method found a fit for both the amplitude and the starting time of the cycle along with a weighted estimate of the amplitude from precursor predictions (polar fields and geomagnetic activity near cycle minimum). Recent work [see Hathaway Solar Physics; 273, 221 (2011)] indicates that the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes as seen in the Butterfly Diagram follows a standard path for all cycles provided the dates are taken relative to a starting time determined by fitting the full cycle. Using data for the current sunspot cycle indicates a starting date of May of 2008. Fixing this date and then finding the cycle amplitude that best fits the sunspot number data yields the current (revised) prediction.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.

A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycle.

Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of changes in the Earth’s magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These changes in the Earth’s magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is still uncertain.

Of these “geomagnetic precursor” techniques three stand out. The earliest is from Ohl and Ohl [Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings, Vol. II. 258 (1979)] They found that the value of the geomagnetic aa index at its minimum was related to the sunspot number during the ensuing maximum. The primary disadvantage of this technique is that the minimum in the geomagnetic aa index often occurs slightly after sunspot minimum so the prediction isn’t available until the sunspot cycle has started.

An alternative method is due to a process suggested by Joan Feynman. She separates the geomagnetic aa index into two components: one in phase with and proportional to the sunspot number, the other component is then the remaining signal. This remaining signal has, in the past, given good estimates of the sunspot numbers several years in advance. The maximum in this signal occurs near sunspot minimum and is proportional to the sunspot number during the following maximum. This method does allow for a prediction of the next sunspot maximum at the time of sunspot minimum.

A third method is due to Richard Thompson [Solar Physics 148, 383 (1993)]. He found a relationship between the number of days during a sunspot cycle in which the geomagnetic field was “disturbed” and the amplitude of the next sunspot maximum. His method has the advantage of giving a prediction for the size of the next sunspot maximum well before sunspot minimum.

We have suggested using the average of the predictions given by the Feynman-based method and by Thompson’s method. [See Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann J. Geophys. Res. 104, 22,375 (1999)] However, both of these methods were impacted by the “Halloween Events” of October/November 2003 which were not reflected in the sunspot numbers. Both methods give larger than average amplitude to Cycle 24 while its delayed start and low minimum strongly suggest a much smaller cycle.

The smoothed aa index reached its minimum (a record low) of 8.4 in September of 2009. Using Ohl’s method now indicates a maximum sunspot number of 70 plus/minus 18 for cycle 24. We then use the shape of the sunspot cycle as described by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann [Solar Physics 151, 177 (1994)] and determine a starting time for the cycle by fitting the latitude drift data to produce a prediction of the monthly sunspot numbers through the next cycle. We find a maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. The predicted numbers are available in a text file, as a GIF image, and as a pdf-file. As the cycle progresses, the prediction process switches over to giving more weight to the fitting of the monthly values to the cycle shape function. At this phase of cycle 24 we now give 66% weight to the amplitude from curve-fitting technique of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics 151, 177 (1994). That technique currently gives similar values to those of Ohl’s method.

Note: These predictions are for “smoothed” International Sunspot Numbers. The smoothing is usually over time periods of about a year or more so both the daily and the monthly values for the International Sunspot Number should fluctuate about our predicted numbers. The dotted lines on the prediction plots indicate the expected range of the monthly sunspot numbers. Also note that the “Boulder” numbers reported daily at www.spaceweather.com are typically about 35% higher than the International sunspot number.

Another indicator of the level of solar activity is the flux of radio emission from the Sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz frequency). This flux has been measured daily since 1947. It is an important indicator of solar activity because it tends to follow the changes in the solar ultraviolet that influence the Earth’s upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Many models of the upper atmosphere use the 10.7 cm flux (F10.7) as input to determine atmospheric densities and satellite drag. F10.7 has been shown to follow the sunspot number quite closely and similar prediction techniques can be used. Our predictions for F10.7 are available in a text file, as a GIF image, and as a pdf-file. Current values for F10.7 can be found at: www.spaceweather.ca/sx-4-eng.php.

[gaikokujin]

Sorry m8, I didnt really want to think what NASA things, just norman people opinions here..

Have you seen anything out of ordinary? Is there something going on on the sun thats not normal?

I mean, many people think that at the end of this year the Mayan calendar leads into a mega blast from the sun which will destroy all digital electrnics on our world.

Have thinked, and what it will lead: no electricity, no cooling in nuclear plants. No electricity, no gas to support the backup systems on nuclear plants..

This is very scary. Since I know that science hasnt the knowledge to say wheter this really is possible couse we just have worked out the technology to view or sun and if we compare that to the age of the sun.. We really know nothing.

But any ideas? What you think of this?

[sigurdur]

I think the Mayan calendar ends in 2012 because that is the end of a cycle, and they felt no need at the time to extend it further.

AS far as a large CME......who knows? It would have to be a bulls eye on earth to have the effects that you indicate.

And the disaster will not be as bad as you think. There will be elec, gas etc even if there was a large CME.

[justsomeguy]

The Mayan calendar had to end sometime as they did not have computers. We have absolutely no evidence that their choice of when to end has any significance. Even if we did, their prophetic history is pretty poor.

[andor]

The Mayans worshipped the sun and by doing that for thousands of years they could predict the sun's cycles pretty accurate. Sometimes its better to get a trend from visual data over long periods of times than using computers.
My feeling is cycle 24 will peak at this time and looking at the current trend might well be so....

[icefisher]

Jul 30, 2012 1:56:17 GMT justsomeguy said:

The Mayan calendar had to end sometime as they did not have computers. We have absolutely no evidence that their choice of when to end has any significance. Even if we did, their prophetic history is pretty poor.

Actually one should admire their persistence at carving calendars out of stone.

It must have been a very prosperous society!

[andor]

It could also mean the end/start of a "bigger cycle" we can't see?
Funny how we humans want to see a cycle with everything and in this Creation, there is definitely a beginning and end!

[chris123]

Hello Dr.

I read about these strange SOHO observations and wondered if you had heard about them. I did find some comments from another person and he tried to get answers from NASA to no avail.

First, I link to the NASA report:

www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/media/1999/m99-256.txt

Here are some clips from it:

ON THE DAY THE SOLAR WIND DISAPPEARED,
SCIENTISTS SAMPLE PARTICLES DIRECTLY FROM THE SUN

From May 10-12, 1999, the solar wind that blows constantly from
the Sun virtually disappeared--the most drastic and longest-
lasting decrease ever observed. Dropping to a fraction of its
normal density and to half its normal speed, the solar wind died
down enough to allow physicists to observe particles flowing
directly from the Sun's corona to Earth. This severe change in
the solar wind also changed the shape of Earth's magnetic field
and produced an unusual auroral display at the North Pole.

www-spof.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp/news/9912

Contact at NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC: Donald Savage
(Phone [phone]).
Contact at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD: Bill
Steigerwald (Phone [phone]).

For full text, see:
ftp.hq.nasa.gov/pub/pao/pressrel/1999/99-145.txt

____________________________________________________

ITEM 2 - ON THE DAY THE SOLAR WIND DISAPPEARED, SCIENTISTS SAMPLE
PARTICLES DIRECTLY FROM THE SUN- GSFC

Contact at NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC: Donald Savage
(Phone [phone]).
Contact at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD: Bill
Steigerwald (Phone [phone]).
Contact at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD: Wade Sisler (Phone
301/286-6256).

From May 10-12, 1999, the solar wind that blows constantly from the Sun virtually
disappeared--the most drastic and longest-lasting decrease ever observed.
Dropping to a fraction of its normal density and to half its normal speed, the
solar wind died down enough to allow physicists to observe particles flowing
directly from the Sun's corona to Earth. This severe change in the solar wind
also changed the shape of Earth's magnetic field and produced an unusual auroral
display at the North Pole.

www-spof.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp/news/9912


ITEM 2a - THE DAY THE SOLAR WIND DISAPPEARED--------------TRT :45

As the solar wind dissipates on May 11, 1999, the magnetosphere and bow shock
around Earth expand to five times their normal size. The aurora, which usually
forms ovals around Earth's poles, fills in over the northern polar cap.


ITEM 2b - POLAR IONOSPHERIC X-RAY IMAGING EXPERIMENT------TRT :20
(PIXIE) MOVIE

Moving X-ray images of the North Pole reveal the "polar rain" of electrons that
fell on Earth's atmosphere on May 11, 1999.

Credit: NASA/Lockheed Martin


ITEM 2c - POLAR IONOSPHERIC X-RAY IMAGING EXPERIMENT------TRT :20
(PIXIE)

X-ray images of the North Pole reveal the "polar rain" of electrons that fell on
Earth's atmosphere on May 11, 1999.

Credit: NASA/Lockheed Martin


ITEM 2d - POLAR VISIBLE IMAGING SYSTEM--------------------TRT :10

Ultraviolet and visible light images of the aurora borealis show the unusual
occurrence of aurora over the North Pole.

Credit: NASA/University of Iowa


ITEM 2e - POLAR VISIBLE IMAGING SYSTEM-MOVIE--------------TRT :30

Ultraviolet movie of the aurora borealis from the Polar VIS Camera during a
typical auroral event on April 17, 1999.

Credit: NASA/University of Iowa


ITEM 2f - MODEL OF THE SOLAR WIND AND MAGNETOSPHERE-------TRT :36

A computer model driven by science data shows the Earth's bow shock--the leading,
colored edge to the left--stretching out toward the Sun as solar wind density
drops. The magnetosphere (gray shading) changes from a windsock shape to a
dipole.

____________________________________________________

NEXT - Here is a link to someone who finds all this very interesting, but also is very perplexed why he cannot get a better answer from NASA about what happened, reprecussions, future expectations, etc.: www.commonsensecentral.net/sun_stuff/whats_new_sun.htm

Here is a clip from his comments. THE IMAGES ARE BY FAR THE STRANGEST THAT I'VE EVER SEEN FROM THE SUN. SCROLL ALL THE WAY TO THE LAST ONE ON BOTTOM.


Douglas Biesecker - SM&A Corp., NASA/GSFC, Code 682.3, Greenbelt, MD 20771
Phone: [phone]; Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]; WWW: sungrazer.nascom.nasa.gov --broken 7/31/2007
As indicated, he checked the tape backup system and the above image is what I downloaded from the web address indicated in his email. It clearly shows the "Slinky Sun Storm"
What would happen if this storm was aimed at the Earth? Is this what happened to Mars’ atmosphere? What could form such a storm? Is it natural or was it created by some type of huge mechanism we can’t even begin to imagine the size of? Why isn’t NASA telling the rest of the world? Is this why our weather has been so wierd lately?
Reality must be truthful to be useful.
Below is the full color version retreived from Enterprisemission:
Douglas Biesecker - SM&A Corp., NASA/GSFC, Code 682.3, Greenbelt, MD 20771
Phone: [phone]; Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]; WWW: sungrazer.nascom.nasa.gov --broken 7/31/2007
As indicated, he checked the tape backup system and the above image is what I downloaded from the web address indicated in his email. It clearly shows the "Slinky Sun Storm"
What would happen if this storm was aimed at the Earth? Is this what happened to Mars’ atmosphere? What could form such a storm? Is it natural or was it created by some type of huge mechanism we can’t even begin to imagine the size of? Why isn’t NASA telling the rest of the world? Is this why our weather has been so wierd lately?
Reality must be truthful to be useful.
At this link are the full color images retreived from Enterprisemission:

www.commonsensecentral.net/sun_stuff/whats_new_sun.htm