|
|
Post by Ratty on Jul 23, 2018 23:56:35 GMT
We missed you Missouri.  |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jul 24, 2018 11:21:29 GMT
We missed you Missouri. Thank you Ratty. Where did these 3 Ozzy scientists go? Did you misplace them? wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/23/surge-in-global-temperatures-since-1977-can-be-attributed-to-a-1976-climate-shift-in-the-pacific-ocean/This morning the "great climate shift" popped into my mind. Extra strong coffee tripped a memory circuit maybe. Or Sig's recent posting of the article on relational similarities between the AMO and various SST data sets for other areas. Seemed a while since I'd seen anything under that moniker, so I launched a search. Uncovered several old articles that likely were posted before, but could be useful to revisit as we progress into a new phase of this cyclical affair ... which may have started a dozen years ago. Macro-trends from various data sets which, while noted, have not been sufficiently explained. Various drivers have been invoked ... Sol and Bary come to mind. May be time to return to this macro-theme as we ride the down slope of this new (for us) shift in the cycle. Who climbs the mountain to see the beast (Lord of the Flies)? Joseph D'Aleo had a good one ... icecap.us/images/uploads/More_on_The_Great_Pacific_Climate_Shift_and_the_Relationship_of_Oceans_on_Global_Temperatures.pdfAbrupt events ocurred ... Miller et al, “The 1976-77 Climate Shift of the Pacific Ocean” Oceanography Vol.7, 1994 [http://horizon.ucsd.edu/miller/download/climateshift/climate_shift.pdf] “During the 1976-77 winter season, the atmosphere- ocean climate system over the North Pacific Ocean was observed to shift its basic state abruptly (e.g., Graham, 1994). The Aleutian Low deepened (Fig. la) causing the storm tracks to shift southward and to increase storm intensity. Downstream, over the continent of North America, warmer temperatures occurred in the northwest (Folland and Parker, 1990), decreased storminess was observed in the southeastern U.S. (Trenberth and Hurrell, 1993), and diminished precipitation and streamflow in the western U.S. (Cayan and Peterson, 1989). In the ocean, sea surface temperature (SST) cooled in the central Pacific and warmed off the coast of western North America (Fig. l c).appinsys.com/globalwarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm Some VERY good charts in this one. Paper (presentation) should be updated. Perhaps a new thread is warranted on Great Climate Shifts (it there isn't one already buried out there). |
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Jul 24, 2018 11:25:56 GMT
We missed you Missouri. Thank you Ratty. ... but don't let it go to your head.  |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jul 30, 2018 8:24:46 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jul 30, 2018 16:47:59 GMT
"Another study, published in Science in 2016, examined ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica and showed that there was a period during the last ice age, when our planet experienced dozens of abrupt temperature shifts. Plummeting and rising again every 1500 years or so, those sudden temperature shifts wreaked havoc on the ecosystems. "I presume those were Bond Events/ Dansgaard–Oeschger events From Wiki
"Dansgaard–Oeschger events (often abbreviated D–O events) are rapid climate fluctuations that occurred 25 times during the last glacial period. Some scientists say that the events occur quasi-periodically with a recurrence time being a multiple of 1,470 years, but this is debated. The comparable climate cyclicity during the Holocene is referred to as Bond events. "en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Jul 31, 2018 19:40:39 GMT
Current Situation in the North Atlantic - SSTs and ARGO
SSts seem to show a sharp, definitive boundary between cold and warm along ~45 N and progressing eastward. Lab current still seems to be displacing(?) gyre northeastward flow along west Long. Warm water from south of Ireland to Bay of Biscay may be a remnant? West warm pool decreasing in size?  ARGO shows this spatial concentration of remaining warm water for June 2018 penned up across the Eastern N Atlantic with no positive anomalies reaching Europe and no warm reinforcements coming from the tropics.  Cross-Longitude timeseries charts for 35-45 N latitude and 45-50 N latitude may tell a lot. Along 35-45 N note the above average anomalies across the entire basin since perhaps mid-2016, feeding out of the abnormally warm west. To me, this seems to indicate that the northern arm of the sub-tropical gyre is feeding more warm water directly eastward toward Spain (or parts further south) after being suppressed in the 2013-15 period. Along 45-55 N (that part which warms the Isles) some northward feed seems to have been re-established in 2017, but appears to be gone again in 2018. Not good news if it proceeds apace. The pre-2009 cushy times (in terms of northward heat transport) broke down during the last solar minimum and did not re-establish itself during Solar Cycle 24. Instead of being a relatively continuous northeastward flow, it has become sporadic pulses as the main warm flow proceeds more easterly. Whether the eddy is being pinched off by a stronger, colder flow over-powering a weaker gyre, or something else, it is apparent that something is afoot.  ARGO shows only a thin veneer of heat from 50-60 N and east of 40W and 2018 has gone negative. A long shot from the solid positive anomalies prior to 2011.  Graph 3 is the money shot 👍👍 Is that the Argo just bought up to date now?? Seemingly long stretch there... I really like graph 3, havnt seen this data published in such a way, thankyou for efforts Moboy, much appreciated 😊 Really shows how intense the cold blob was.... Can I share with GWV people?? I know they'd like it. If anyone offers money I'll send a portion of it your way 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jul 31, 2018 20:15:45 GMT
Yes, it was a long ARGO silent period. Perhaps another one moved to France.  And it is California. Share with anyone you want. You know I'm not greedy right? Fifty percent will be fine. Just no liberals OK ... unless it's in suppository form. GWV? |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Jul 31, 2018 20:51:21 GMT
Yes, it was a long ARGO silent period. Perhaps another one moved to France. And it is California. Share with anyone you want. You know I'm not greedy right? Fifty percent will be fine. Just no liberals OK ... unless it's in suppository form. GWV? Gavs weather vids.... Be careful what you wish for 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jul 31, 2018 22:43:53 GMT
Yes, it was a long ARGO silent period. Perhaps another one moved to France. And it is California. Share with anyone you want. You know I'm not greedy right? Fifty percent will be fine. Just no liberals OK ... unless it's in suppository form. GWV? Gavs weather vids.... Be careful what you wish for 😉 At my age? Ya gotta be kidding. |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Jul 31, 2018 22:54:20 GMT
Gavs weather vids.... Be careful what you wish for 😉 At my age? Ya gotta be kidding. 😁 |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 4, 2018 6:38:46 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Aug 4, 2018 10:52:51 GMT
We need to find someone who knows the intricacies of all climate influences and precisely how the various factors react with/affect the others. Should we advertise? 
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 4, 2018 11:28:59 GMT
We need to find someone who knows the intricacies of all climate influences and precisely how the various factors react with/affect the others. Should we advertise? I suspect the size of this forum is an indication of how many people would get it. The rows that occur on wuwt etc are an indication of how many people might agree 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Aug 4, 2018 12:31:25 GMT
We need to find someone who knows the intricacies of all climate influences and precisely how the various factors react with/affect the others. Should we advertise? I suspect the size of this forum is an indication of how many people would get it. The rows that occur on wuwt etc are an indication of how many people might agree 😉 Are you applying for the position, Acid? For a small consideration, I could sponsor you ..... think about it. |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 4, 2018 12:43:49 GMT
I suspect the size of this forum is an indication of how many people would get it. The rows that occur on wuwt etc are an indication of how many people might agree 😉 Are you applying for the position, Acid? For a small consideration, I could sponsor you ..... think about it. I'll take any money coming my way Ratty, and I can dishonestly say I guarantee the results. 🤣 |
|
And it is California.