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Post by sigurdur on Apr 2, 2013 17:11:31 GMT
codewhacker: Yes, I am planting some wheat, but as little as possible. The profit margin, at current prices, is not a good one. My ground was worked last fall. We have approx 28" of snow at present to melt. Most will go into the ground, as there are large cracks in the ground as a pathway for the water to flow and recharge.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 2, 2013 22:08:53 GMT
"I provide detailed and specific forecasts for clients worldwide. What I provide for the public are my long-range general climate outlooks to be of help. If you can do better, then be my guest. " Sorry if I sound skeptical but I have seen nothing in your "long-range general climate outlooks" that is worth investing in. Considering you're methodology I would not go out on a limb with any verifiable forecasts either. You would quickly be exposed as a charlatan with a track record no better than chance. Hopefully the farmers that make their living tilling the soil and trying to come out on top in their constant struggle with mother nature take you're so called "forecasts" with a grain of salt and nobody gets hurt by them. You're (notice the proper use of English grammar) not 'skeptical' Glenn, just plain stupid - from the contents of your own comments. You have not a clue as to any 'methodology' whatsoever and know nothing about the climate and weather of the Earth, or what causes it. All your 'manmade global warming' crap is totally useless. You have no knowledge of climate science or meteorology for that matter, so the only 'charlatan' here is you kiddo. In the final analysis: You're just full of shit Glenn. That's it.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 3, 2013 0:33:35 GMT
astronut,
Go back to playing in your mom's basement with your astrolabe and pouring over quatrains from Nostradamus. You're forecast's are worthless.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 3, 2013 2:31:27 GMT
news.yahoo.com/2013-driest-since-dust-bowl-225633810.htmlIf you thought 2012’s record-setting drought was a doozy, get ready for this summer: Climatologists are predicting 2013 will be even drier and hotter. Costs of the 2012 drought were estimated at $50 billion, more than the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy. In fact, we better get used to those photographs of dry, cracked river beds and dusty farm fields across the Midwest and Western states since it seems we’re heading into a parched period that experts compare to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Hi Sigurdur, Well, the 2012 Drought I forecasted is the reason why seasonal climate forecasting is so important. Last year’s damaged harvest will have raised food prices as much as 4-5% percent this year - particularly beef. Last year's drought cost an estimated $150 billion in damage, as well as an estimated 0.5 to 1 percent drop in the U.S. gross domestic product. This year, we will see some improvement in parts of the Midwest, but the problems of the drought will continue in 2013. In February, 54.2 percent of the United States experienced drought conditions, compared with 39 percent at the same time in 2012. Large areas of South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska and Montana — which entered 2012's agricultural growing season with very moist conditions — are now battling severe and extreme drought as farmers get ready to plant spring crops. By the end of March about 36.43% of the contiguous U.S. was drought-free. Across the Midwest, about half of the region is now reported to be 'drought-free,' but again, because of the cold spring, frozen soil prevents the need for deep soil moisture recharge. This again, is a result of the drought. Despite people like Glenn being totally clueless about climate and how drought works, what we see here is how longer-term soil moisture deficits reflect the drought I forecasted for 2012. The effects of last summer's drought are still very much with us. Every drought has variations, according to astronomic configurations relative to Earth, and the condition of the Sun. This calls the shots on our geophysical environment and climate. When you look at March, you'll see minor improvements in parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. My astrometeorological analysis shows that the ground has 10-20 inches of frozen soil. That prevents deep soil moisture recharge. When you see streams and rivers rise, then fall rapidly, that points to excessive runoff. This lack of penetration is also reflected in reports of basement flooding because the water can't yet get into the soil. But there's some precipitation coming. Looks like an inch of rain to me. I've been tracking a strong and rather wide system that will impact about a million square miles over the U.S. Plains, West and Midwest with rain, snow and severe weather events into next week. The storm will strike parts of the West this weekend and then continues into the middle of next week with significant moisture for some very water-starved regions. The persistent cool air looks to head south into the Southwestern U.S. The astronomic signals look like gusty high winds, along with thunderstorms & hail in parts of California into Nevada, late this weekend. It will extend into Arizona and New Mexico by early next week. The stubborn pattern of cold air pressure in the East and warmth in the West should weaken just enough to allow this storm to slide in from the Pacific, packing some decent precipitation. The storm has a chance of getting some moisture help from the Gulf of Mexico. This storm would gather strength over the weekend of April 6-7 and then reaches peak into next week. After it passes the Pacific Northwest, we could get low-elevation rains along with snowfall at higher-elevations to some of the drought-impacted regions in Colorado, Wyoming, southern Montana, Utah, Nevada and southern Idaho. The stingy cold air will be there though, enough for a heavy snowfall rather than rain over regions of Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle as well as the Black Hills. The heavy rains from the storm has enough precip (say about an inch of rain) to help some of the worse-hit drought regions in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas into next week. But this storm can pack violent thunderstorms for regions over Texas, Oklahoma as well as southern Kansas and Missouri. There's a need to mind the development of tornadoes, even into parts of the Southeastern U.S. next week. The DroughtLook to the mountain west as well, where drought conditions in parts of Wyoming and southeastern Montana got worse because of the dry month of March. There could be wildfires this year in Yellowstone if I read the astronomic signals correctly. They had below-average snowpack in the mountains. This feeds the upper and lower regions of Yellowstone. It is dry as well in southwestern and central Montana. So they can use the moisture. Last month, precipitation was just a quarter of the average. They got just .26 of an inch of precip compared to their 1.06-inch average. It's really dry there and big wildfires could break out this year. They should get ready. Then there's the situation in the South, look at Texas for instance, around the region of the Rio Grande Valley show dry analog years from my astromet database from the 1950s. There are the same astronomic signals today. The drought in Texas is bad enough at this stage to bet they will have water restrictions and fights this year. About 98% percent of Texas is abnormally dry with about 10-11% rated in an exceptional drought. A lot farmers and ranchers had no water allotment left for this spring. So the spring rains will be welcome for parched regions affected by the drought, but again, the drought is far from over.
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Post by karlox on Apr 3, 2013 8:56:03 GMT
codewhacker: Yes, I am planting some wheat, but as little as possible. The profit margin, at current prices, is not a good one. My ground was worked last fall. We have approx 28" of snow at present to melt. Most will go into the ground, as there are large cracks in the ground as a pathway for the water to flow and recharge. I'm going to have to do some reading to get up to date on current soil conservation practices. I was under the opinion it was good practice to not till the ground to allow the stalks to hold soil and water? I think I may email a contact over at WSU who used to run the AG dept for them before he got a bump up to get a little more current info. Have you looked into custom farming, providing grain for specific markets? Buyers gets to choose grain variety etc. Possible markets include distillers (my favorite) bakers and co-ops. Distillers... I approve that. As far as none is for producing bio-ethanol it´s ok.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 3, 2013 20:43:52 GMT
I used to sell corn to the Jack Daniels distillery north of Winnipeg. They want min 56# test weight and non GMO. Stopped growing corn a few years back, going to plant some this year tho. The market in Canada had fallen, as the Carmen area increased corn production enough so that importing corn became non-feasible. Used to be a $1.00 premium for sales there. Not anymore...
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 3, 2013 20:58:06 GMT
Thanks Nautonnier, This cold, wet early spring will lead to a wet, humid and cloudy summer generally, as that is what astronomic transits show me. The decrease in Earth's thermal energy means global cooling with the decline in the Sun's Total Solar Irradiance. The Sun's cycle going into the middle years of this decade will see global warming end with some pretty hot temperatures 2014-2016 like we witnessed recently in the southern hemisphere. We are in the waning years of solar-forced global warming, as I have been saying for quite some time. We are heading toward global cooling though; that's been my climate change forecast for years now, and next winter will show, by means of anomalous winter weather, what's on tap in the coming global cooling climate regime. This is not a La Nina, as the next ENSO, according to my long-range outlook won't be until 2021-2023, and that La Nina will take place in a global cooling regime. Theo, Based on your above comment "This cold, wet early spring will lead to a wet, humid and cloudy summer generally, as that is what astronomic transits show me" are you changing your forecast for the drought and heat wave that is to occur this summer in the U.S.? Or are you referring to another area? Just curious. Thanks, Ray Hi Ray, I'm referring to other regions, but the overall climate will be wet, and cloudy. There will be heatwaves this year however, the climate in 2013 is much more variable than it was in 2012, so there will be heavy, sometimes even torrential rains, that strike the northern hemisphere this growing season. And drought-affected regions in North America will still have the effects of drought to contend with though this year.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 3, 2013 23:44:28 GMT
And not just lettuce. This is how the climate/weather impact crops and markets. And it proves what I've been saying about how drought and flood can co-exist. Don't mess with Mother Nature. See -> www.agrimoney.com/news/pests-drought-cut-hopes-for-sa-soybean-exports--5686.htmlIf you look at the climate conditions, say in South America, then you will see that the soybean crop is threatened. Just last month, most commentators were complaining about the frost, cold and drought climate conditions in Argentina. Now add torrential rains to the mix. Argentina’s crop was projected to be 51.5 million metric tons. That's down 2.8 percent from the February forecast. Meanwhile we see world production will decline about 0.6 percent to about 268 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. A Bloomberg survey said that analysts expected production in the Argentina, the world’s third-largest grower to be 51.2 million tons, this after dry weather damaged crops earlier this year. International grains prices soared recently on the Chicago Board of Trade because of the fears of the lingering dryness in Argentina. Still, most analysts had a rosy outlook for the Argentina's soy harvest. They were expected to hit a near-record 51.3 million metric tons. That's up 28% from 2012. Then, the sudden wet climate set in when April 1-3, 2013 when at least 35 people were reported killed by overnight flooding in Argentina's Buenos Aires province. That brings the overall death toll from several days of torrential rains in Argentina to at least 41. Buenos Aires produces about half of Argentina's total grains crop. Soya harvesting has just begun in Argentina, the world's No 1 exporter of soya-meal, used as animal feed, and soya-oil, a key supply for the booming international biofuels sector. The heavy rains left large stretches of the capital under water. Half of La Plata was reported to be flooded. This is what I have been saying about the cold March and then the onset of spring rains in the northern hemisphere this year. How drought and threat of floods can co-exist. Also, back in March, a sudden blast of arctic air shocked late-planted soy fields in parts of Argentina's main grains province of Buenos Aires. That added more pressure on their harvest expectations. Then the sudden torrential rains fell in Argentina came with totals of a shocking 16 inches(that's 400 millimeters) of rain in just two hours. By Thursday, April 4, another four more inches of rain (another 100 millimeters more) should fall before it's all over. After the dry, cold climate in early March, their farmers were making decent progress with the soy harvest, but the torrential rains, flood conditions and boggy climate has made a mess of things. There's clearly danger to Argentina's soybean and corn crops, but the heavy rains will delay their harvest. This will help American farmers later this year in export sales of corn and soybean in North America, but we will have similar weather issues up here too that will affect harvest this year.
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Post by strongminded on Apr 5, 2013 1:28:17 GMT
Codewacker and Sigurdur, and anyone else:
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 5, 2013 3:46:41 GMT
Argentina is going to have a good crop of beans. Brazil is 80% harvested of a huge crop of beans.
Ships are backed up 60+ days at Brazil ports. China may have to buy more US beans because of the infrastructure backlog in Brazil.
Someone is paying a lottttttt of demurrage on those ships sitting idle.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 7, 2013 1:10:38 GMT
codewhacker: Yes, I am planting some wheat, but as little as possible. The profit margin, at current prices, is not a good one. My ground was worked last fall. We have approx 28" of snow at present to melt. Most will go into the ground, as there are large cracks in the ground as a pathway for the water to flow and recharge. Well, it looks as if the drought will continue from what I've forecasted. Even snowpack in the western U.S. is somewhere about 70% of average at higher elevations. Some places could use another 8 to 12 feet of snow in the next two weeks, but it's going to be tight with Mercury's northern declination just 12 days from now. There will be April snows in North America, but again, the drought moves into its second year and will continue; especially in the west and midwest.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 8, 2013 8:20:41 GMT
The Columbia basin will have lots of water to irrigate this year.
Another thing for certain, the 2013 crop year is off to a late start, which will jepordize the crops.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 9, 2013 3:43:51 GMT
The Columbia basin will have lots of water to irrigate this year. Another thing for certain, the 2013 crop year is off to a late start, which will jepordize the crops. As expected with the cold, wet spring. I've let some farmers know that the planting season can begin on April 18th, that's the date according to my assessment that the planting season officially begins. If you look where you are Sigurdur, you will see that in South Dakota, 26% of winter wheat has fallen to winterkill while only one-percent of spring wheat has been seeded. That's below the average of 5 percent. Arigmoney reports problems with the cold first third of spring: Cold, Rains slow early U.S. Corn Planting Progress
The corn sowings window is opening in the Midwest with little prospect of the speedy early progress farmers achieved last year, with cold and often excessively wet conditions holding up fieldwork.
Starting guns for planting are beginning to sound in the Midwest, the most important corn-growing region of the US, as the calendar flips to dates at which plantings become eligible for crop insurance.
Yet in Illinois, in parts of which seedings on Monday passed into the crop insurance window, temperatures which last week averaged 7 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, and damp conditions are holding up growers.
"As a result of the weather patterns the past month, soil temperatures have not reached the required level for planting and soil moisture levels across the state are too wet for planting also," US Department of Agriculture scouts said.
"Very little fieldwork has been accomplished and has been limited to activities such as spreading fertilizer early in the day when the ground is still frozen."
Corn planting progress is viewed as highly sensitive to prices, with overly delayed sowings, from around mid-May, seen limiting yield potential.
'Minimal progress'
The conditions in Illinois - America's second-biggest producing state for corn and soybeans, behind Iowa - are being reflected too in oats, in which "planting has barely begun with only 2% reported planted when the average is usually 24%".
And they are being seen in many other states too, including neighbouring Missouri, where farmers had only 1-2% of corn sown as of Sunday, down from 6% a year before.
"Cold ground temperatures and above-average precipitation in March has delayed planting progress," USDA scouts said, reporting only 1.6 days last week suitable for fieldwork.
"Corn planting progress was minimal."
Wet & Cold Spring conditions
Indeed, further south, faster-than-normal corn sowings reported in Louisiana, where growers have nearly finished, and Texas appear the exception rather than the rule.
In Mississippi, farmers had sown 44% of corn as of Sunday, in line with average, but well behind the 60% a year ago, when the US enjoyed near-ideal planting conditions.
"The rain and cooler temperatures continued to slow fieldwork and corn planting," USDA scouts in Jackson, Mississippi said.
In Arkansas, sowings were 22% complete, 10 points behind the average pace, a slowdown again attributed to "wet and cold conditions."
No Days Suitable for Fieldwork
Seedings of spring wheat, grown mainly in northern states, has got off to a slow start too, thanks to low temperatures and, in some areas, excessive snow cover.
In South Dakota, where 26% of winter wheat has succumbed to winterkill, only 1% of spring wheat has been seeded, below the average of 5%.
In North Dakota, "with the continued snow cover in many areas, there were no days suitable for fieldwork again this week," USDA scouts said.
"Reports indicated that, on average, producers intended to begin fieldwork by April 23… well behind last year's early starting date of April 3."As forecasted, this cold, wet spring has caused problems, and there's more to come, but at least the growing season will begin, according to my calculations, by April 18, 2013.
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ray
New Member
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Post by ray on Apr 9, 2013 18:24:59 GMT
Thanks for the response Theo. One quick question when you get a chance. When the global cooling period begins around 2017, do you think it will be as severe as the sporer and maunder minimums or something less severe?
Thanks, Ray
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 9, 2013 18:46:41 GMT
As I sit here, with my throbbing foot, the need to finish getting machinery ready for planting is pressing. The item that is unpressing is the current temp outside. 18F. 40F below the normal temp.
Snow pack has shrunk to around 12". But this is the 9th of April. Offffffffta.
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