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Post by sigurdur on Jun 27, 2013 12:08:46 GMT
It is kinda funny what will strike fear in a man. Forecast of 90f. It is warm. Forecast of 30f. Watch plants die.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 27, 2013 12:14:16 GMT
It is kinda funny what will strike fear in a man. Forecast of 90f. It is warm. Forecast of 30f. Watch plants die. That was one of the first indications to me that the entire AGW hypothesis was unlikely. If the world was really going to come to an end if CO2 went above 350ppm - would you just tax it? The falsity of the alarmists was obvious. The same falsity is seen when robust evidence is put before them that calamity and death is not going to happen - and they are disappointed and argue that no we are all going to die - unless we pay taxes and continue doing what we were doing. Sorry - lost the debate at that point.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 27, 2013 12:44:25 GMT
It is kinda funny what will strike fear in a man. Forecast of 90f. It is warm. Forecast of 30f. Watch plants die. That was one of the first indications to me that the entire AGW hypothesis was unlikely. If the world was really going to come to an end if CO2 went above 350ppm - would you just tax it? The falsity of the alarmists was obvious. The same falsity is seen when robust evidence is put before them that calamity and death is not going to happen - and they are disappointed and argue that no we are all going to die - unless we pay taxes and continue doing what we were doing. Sorry - lost the debate at that point. That is very true nautonnier. A few degrees of warming benefits mankind. A few degrees of cooling......now that is a totally different story.
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Post by numerouno on Jun 27, 2013 14:09:36 GMT
Sales of canoes picking up in Continental Europe: Climate change is good for you, unless you will have to actually pay for it: (Calgary, Canada)
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 27, 2013 14:55:08 GMT
From the Met Office’s paper issued in April, “Why was the start to spring 2013 so cold?” :-
It is informative to consider whether there are similarities in the global climate system in 1962(Figure 6) to this year’s situation (Figure 3). Comparison with the equivalent figures for 2013 shows a remarkable resemblance.
The hemispheric pattern of the surface air temperature anomalies is almost identical, as is the hemispheric pattern of mean sea level pressure anomalies. Again the negative phase of the NAO dominated the Euro-Atlantic sector in 1962, with the same southwards shift in the jet stream taking the weather systems into southern Europe and the Mediterranean.
What was the weather like during the time around the weak solar cycle 20 (1961-1977)? - extremes of cold, heat & flooding.
When does flooding occur in Germany? - during periods of low solar acivity:
NoTricksZone reports: Data Shows Relationship Between South German Flooding Frequency And Solar Activity.
Recent doctoral dissertation shows that flooding in Southern Germany is very strongly related to solar activity. No correlation is found with CO2.
Figure 1: Flood frequency of the Ammersee region (bottom) and Sonnenaktvität (top) (from Czymizik 2012 , PhD thesis). Phases of low solar activity are highlighted in blue. Whenever the sun was weak (high C14 values ??Auschlag) led to more floods.
Flooding catastrophes at the Bavarian Lake Ammer occur predominantly during phases of weak solar activity By Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning (Translated, edited by P Gosselin)
Link: www.kaltesonne.de/?p=11046
An example of flooding during the stunted solar cycle N°14:
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 27, 2013 15:24:58 GMT
If the patterns remain similar then next winter will be an analogue of 1963 - that will freezes the windmills of people's minds
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 27, 2013 15:44:31 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 27, 2013 17:49:41 GMT
Sales of canoes picking up in Continental Europe: Climate change is good for you, unless you will have to actually pay for it: (Calgary, Canada) Numerouno, What or whom was billed for the previous floods in Calgary? Certainly not CO2. It looks like there have been two worse floods in Calgary's recorded history. www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/calgary-floods-it-could-happen-again/8295/YEAR PEAK FLOW 1 1879 2265 m³/s (estimate) 2 1897 2265 m³/s (estimate) 3 2013 1740 m³/s (estimate) 4 1902 1550 m³/s (estimate) 5 1932 1520 m³/s 6 1929 1320 m³/s 7 1915 1130 m³/s 8 1923 841 m³/s 9 1916 810 m³/s 10 2005 791 m³/s
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Post by Andrew on Jun 27, 2013 20:40:50 GMT
This reminds of the Stochiastic climate change model. If you run the simulation called the real world for sufficient time you will find you get 100 year highs and lows and 1000 year highs and lows and 10,000 year highs and lows. If you run the simulation for sufficient time you will have an almost 100% probability that you will get higher highs and lower lows without end.
Nothing other than randomness will cause these kinds of changes
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 28, 2013 14:06:34 GMT
NWS has revised forecast from this... "ONE WEATHER MODEL INDICATED THAT PARTS OF THE INTERIOR COULD REACH A SCORCHING 100 DEGREES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY." to eighties and low nineties. The forecast was good while it lasted.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 28, 2013 15:34:45 GMT
Sales of canoes picking up in Continental Europe: Climate change is good for you, unless you will have to actually pay for it: And that about sums it up! Its all about "entitlement". They figure "the world" owes them a living, they are looking for a "position" as opposed to a "job"! And these morons want to kill off progress to get their entitlement! Its like the primary philosophy of the "couch potato" has been elevated to the level of a religion. Unfortunately it has the same outcome for society as the philosophy has for the individual couch potato. Of course nobody wants to talk or think about that! The only argument is you are going have to pay for the world changing, which of course it changes all the time anyway. And who better to "preach" this philosophy than a "tenured" class of academics. One can never convince the couch potato that taking out the trash is a good thing. Yes indeed, progress comes with responsibility. If it rains more that means more water for irrigation, it can mean floods and negatives; but it also opens opportunity to build control mechanisms with lasting benefits of water for irrigation, energy production, etc.
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Post by numerouno on Jun 30, 2013 19:13:55 GMT
My gardening parents tell me their garden is now out of flowers to bloom. even the late ones have done their bit. Summer is 2-3 weeks in advance, which is A LOT in these parts, which is designed to withstand being 2-3 weeks late as a matter of routine.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 30, 2013 23:35:05 GMT
Perhaps start of autumn and winter will be similarly advanced?
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 1, 2013 0:20:29 GMT
Perhaps start of autumn and winter will be similarly advanced? From a North American perspective, I certainly hope not. We will need every frost free day that can be mustered.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 1, 2013 6:20:28 GMT
save me the crap
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