Post by twawki on Apr 21, 2009 1:29:01 GMT
ouch -73 c below - thats cold
Ok some musings as follows;
As the southern hemisphere is mostly ocean (approx. 80%) variances in solar activity would generate less variances in atmospheric change there (in comparison to the northern hemisphere where only 60% is ocean) because of the oceans ability to store heat greater and for longer periods than land mass.
If the oceans store heat for approx. 8 years before it is dissipated then this stored heat would gradually be released to the atmosphere for the most part (but not all) within that time. Land mass however would absorb and dissipate heat much quicker (anyone have calculation on this?)
As the current bout of sun inactivity is extending and deepening then the initial effects would have started with the ramp down to solar minimum around 2001/2002, with the cooling effects gradually increasing till we flatlined in sunspot count in 2007 with the bulk of the solar absorbed ocean heat then potentially dropping to the new solar state equilibrium level by 2015 (2007+8 years)should sunspot count stay near zero during that time (eg as hypothesized by Livingston and Penn). What is significant is to find what the ocean temperature would be during an extended zero sunspot activity level as this would give us a good idea of what to expect. Whilst the oceans would create greater initial temperature stability due to delayed release, once that heat is lost the cooling effect would be more protracted.
As a rule of thumb as the southern hemisphere has double the ocean area of the northern hemisphere then its losing double the heat. The reverse would be true during solar grand maximums. During solar minimums the southern oceans then would have a greater cooling trend overall than the northern oceans. This would be a significant interplay affecting the heat transfer between the ocean and atmospheric hemispheres. For example we have come from solar grand maxima and now entering solar minima. This regime change means the southern hemisphere oceans are going from being the max. solar absorbers of heat to the max. losers of heat. Therefore the Southern hemisphere will go from warming the world to cooling it. This could explain the tendency to a cooling PDO and predominant La Ninas as the SH now seeks to draw heat from the north as is typical of heat transfer and convection rather than supply it.
This means the climate in the NH would be more variable and quicker to change but in the SH less variable but when it changes it does so for more extended periods and takes greater time to achieve a new equilibrium. So the NH would achieve a quicker equilibrium between earth and the sun than the SH. This all is based on the frequency of change with the sun output.
As water has the highest specific heat of any substance, adding salt to the water reduces its specific heat. This means that salt water temperature rises/falls more than pure water for the same amount of heat addition/subtraction. If as the oceans cool, sea water contracts and sea levels drop, then the oceans have a higher concentration of salt meaning they will subsequently absorb and emit heat quicker exacerbating the cooling trend.
This is offset by a reduction in surface area and consequently a reduction in ocean heat loss, but also a reduction in evaporation. As cooling oceans typically cause a cooling atmosphere then the cooling atmosphere will also cause an accumulation of ice and snow on land which will further reduce sea levels. Sea level fall is also offset by land sedimentation runoff - however this is significantly less in the southern hemisphere due to smaller land areas. Tectonic plate movements interaction is also a factor and this would include undersea movement.
What happens when the sun activity changes for a protracted period (as we may be witnessing) is we move to a different climate regime based on a new equilibrium between the earths inherent generated heat from its core and the suns radiant heat. This new equilibrium should be felt in the Northern hemisphere first due to its greater expanse of land but in the Southern hemisphere over a longer period.
Is this what we are currently witnessing the early stages of?
www.eoearth.org/article/Ocean
Ok some musings as follows;
As the southern hemisphere is mostly ocean (approx. 80%) variances in solar activity would generate less variances in atmospheric change there (in comparison to the northern hemisphere where only 60% is ocean) because of the oceans ability to store heat greater and for longer periods than land mass.
If the oceans store heat for approx. 8 years before it is dissipated then this stored heat would gradually be released to the atmosphere for the most part (but not all) within that time. Land mass however would absorb and dissipate heat much quicker (anyone have calculation on this?)
As the current bout of sun inactivity is extending and deepening then the initial effects would have started with the ramp down to solar minimum around 2001/2002, with the cooling effects gradually increasing till we flatlined in sunspot count in 2007 with the bulk of the solar absorbed ocean heat then potentially dropping to the new solar state equilibrium level by 2015 (2007+8 years)should sunspot count stay near zero during that time (eg as hypothesized by Livingston and Penn). What is significant is to find what the ocean temperature would be during an extended zero sunspot activity level as this would give us a good idea of what to expect. Whilst the oceans would create greater initial temperature stability due to delayed release, once that heat is lost the cooling effect would be more protracted.
As a rule of thumb as the southern hemisphere has double the ocean area of the northern hemisphere then its losing double the heat. The reverse would be true during solar grand maximums. During solar minimums the southern oceans then would have a greater cooling trend overall than the northern oceans. This would be a significant interplay affecting the heat transfer between the ocean and atmospheric hemispheres. For example we have come from solar grand maxima and now entering solar minima. This regime change means the southern hemisphere oceans are going from being the max. solar absorbers of heat to the max. losers of heat. Therefore the Southern hemisphere will go from warming the world to cooling it. This could explain the tendency to a cooling PDO and predominant La Ninas as the SH now seeks to draw heat from the north as is typical of heat transfer and convection rather than supply it.
This means the climate in the NH would be more variable and quicker to change but in the SH less variable but when it changes it does so for more extended periods and takes greater time to achieve a new equilibrium. So the NH would achieve a quicker equilibrium between earth and the sun than the SH. This all is based on the frequency of change with the sun output.
As water has the highest specific heat of any substance, adding salt to the water reduces its specific heat. This means that salt water temperature rises/falls more than pure water for the same amount of heat addition/subtraction. If as the oceans cool, sea water contracts and sea levels drop, then the oceans have a higher concentration of salt meaning they will subsequently absorb and emit heat quicker exacerbating the cooling trend.
This is offset by a reduction in surface area and consequently a reduction in ocean heat loss, but also a reduction in evaporation. As cooling oceans typically cause a cooling atmosphere then the cooling atmosphere will also cause an accumulation of ice and snow on land which will further reduce sea levels. Sea level fall is also offset by land sedimentation runoff - however this is significantly less in the southern hemisphere due to smaller land areas. Tectonic plate movements interaction is also a factor and this would include undersea movement.
What happens when the sun activity changes for a protracted period (as we may be witnessing) is we move to a different climate regime based on a new equilibrium between the earths inherent generated heat from its core and the suns radiant heat. This new equilibrium should be felt in the Northern hemisphere first due to its greater expanse of land but in the Southern hemisphere over a longer period.
Is this what we are currently witnessing the early stages of?
www.eoearth.org/article/Ocean