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Post by sigurdur on Nov 15, 2014 16:32:04 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 16, 2014 1:43:53 GMT
Joe Bastardi over at Weather Bell has been forecasting this November to be similar to November 1976. For Southeast Texas, that winter is the one all others are measured against. I started splitting more firewood today. You better not only split more, you had better GET more Glenn. This is the forecast for just a few miles NW of me. weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?mb-26&unit=iSigurdur, You were right. I need more firewood. It's only been cold about 5 days and I have used about 1/3 of what I would normally use in an entire winter. Of course that could be directly correlated with the price of oil which has dropped so far so fast I am reluctant to turn the heat on in my all electric house. Cheaper prices at the pump is great for everyone outside the oilfield. It scares me.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 16, 2014 3:30:34 GMT
Glenn: This price decline looks like it will be a bit before it creeps back up. Sauds don't like their market share slipping so much, and it has.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 16, 2014 18:23:11 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 16, 2014 18:50:56 GMT
Yes, even messing around with the colors and claiming how warm everything is cannot hide the way the NOrth Atlantic Drift seems to have ground to a halt. The heat in the North Pacific also seems to have gone into hiding again. If the blocking highs move just a little bit Europe could have a rather chilly time.
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 17, 2014 2:00:45 GMT
Glenn: This price decline looks like it will be a bit before it creeps back up. Sauds don't like their market share slipping so much, and it has. Sigurdur, Shale drilling has changed everything. The U.S. currently holds an advantage in this area in experience and technology. However, it is spreading fast. Expect shale plays around the world to start taking off putting downward pressure on oil and gas.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 17, 2014 4:28:41 GMT
Glenn: This price decline looks like it will be a bit before it creeps back up. Sauds don't like their market share slipping so much, and it has. Sigurdur, Shale drilling has changed everything. The U.S. currently holds an advantage in this area in experience and technology. However, it is spreading fast. Expect shale plays around the world to start taking off putting downward pressure on oil and gas. Yep. But not profitable below 65.00
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Post by Ratty on Nov 17, 2014 7:58:27 GMT
Glenn: This price decline looks like it will be a bit before it creeps back up. Sauds don't like their market share slipping so much, and it has. Sigurdur, Shale drilling has changed everything. The U.S. currently holds an advantage in this area in experience and technology. However, it is spreading fast. Expect shale plays around the world to start taking off putting downward pressure on oil and gas. If you are referring to fracking, it's on the move here in Oz. The Greens are against it.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 17, 2014 11:21:19 GMT
Sigurdur, Shale drilling has changed everything. The U.S. currently holds an advantage in this area in experience and technology. However, it is spreading fast. Expect shale plays around the world to start taking off putting downward pressure on oil and gas. Yep. But not profitable below 65.00 I think you will see that break even point drop as newer methods are put in place such as using liquid nitrogen rather than water with less for the 'greens' to protest about as there is no fracking fluid to collect after use.
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 17, 2014 15:19:30 GMT
I think we may be able to make money as low as 60.00 a barrel. There is lots of room in the oilfield to cut costs. With that being said if the Saudi's want to sell their oil for 50.00 a barrel what is to stop them? Most of OPEC has a vested interest in seeing the North American shale play fail. I think it will be an interesting ride over the next year.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 18, 2014 11:38:01 GMT
I think we may be able to make money as low as 60.00 a barrel. There is lots of room in the oilfield to cut costs. With that being said if the Saudi's want to sell their oil for 50.00 a barrel what is to stop them? Most of OPEC has a vested interest in seeing the North American shale play fail. I think it will be an interesting ride over the next year. There is nothing to stop the Saudis selling their oil cheap. But the other OPEC members some of whom have been spending madly haven't got the wherewhithal to support prices so low. These countries include such backwaters as Russia which will be in a poor position if its oil is halved in value. Iran, Venezuela and even UK won't be wildly impressed either. Multinationals that hedged on oil will also be badly bitten. There could be a lot of collateral damage in this 'interesting ride'.
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 18, 2014 15:45:41 GMT
I think we may be able to make money as low as 60.00 a barrel. There is lots of room in the oilfield to cut costs. With that being said if the Saudi's want to sell their oil for 50.00 a barrel what is to stop them? Most of OPEC has a vested interest in seeing the North American shale play fail. I think it will be an interesting ride over the next year. There is nothing to stop the Saudis selling their oil cheap. But the other OPEC members some of whom have been spending madly haven't got the wherewhithal to support prices so low. These countries include such backwaters as Russia which will be in a poor position if its oil is halved in value. Iran, Venezuela and even UK won't be wildly impressed either. Multinationals that hedged on oil will also be badly bitten. There could be a lot of collateral damage in this 'interesting ride'. Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Co. will certainly be in a poor position. Their petro-economies are going to be ravaged. But what are they going to do? Stop production? A likely outcome is the opening of valves in an effort to increase production to help offset the lost revenue. Very interesting ride ahead.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Nov 18, 2014 15:55:13 GMT
Nautonnier,
There is so much in your comment, I could write a book. But I don't have that much time. Interesting ride indeed!!!
A few thoughts.
Yes, I agree the Saudis could sell their oil cheap. But what would it get them?
There is no way to put the shale genie back in the bottle. There is no way to put the oil sand genie back in the bottle. There is no way to put the huge increase in Natural Gas supplies genie back in the bottle.
Don't forget that Canadian oil production just topped 2 MBPD and is heading to 5 MBPD by 2030 with 100 years of proven reserves at that rate. Sooner or later (As soon as the SCOAMF is out of the picture, perhaps sooner.) Keystone will be built.
If current trends continue the United States will become an energy exporter by the mid 1920s. (Note: I take this prediction with a grain of salt, there is in my opinion no way to really predict what will happen in the industry in ten years.) But, it is likely that U.S. imports from Canada will increase while imports from most OPEC countries will dwindle to nothing in the next 10 years.
It is likely that the rail industry and shipping industry will begin converting to LNG use in the immediate future. I don't know if or when this could affect oil consumption, but in the U.S. it is likely we will see movement away from diesel to fuel locomotives, ships, and possibly fleet trucking within the decade. From a purely practical standpoint, LNG as a fuel is 60% cheaper at current prices. There is a lot of research being done on converting ships, locomotives and trucks to LNG. The primary choke point at this time is there is no LNG fuel infrastructure, but with these price differentials, that will be overcome.
Oil will never get back to $100 a barrel without some form of intervention by OPEC but this will not happen for 2 reasons. 1st OPECs stranglehold on supply is not what it was, oil production outside of OPECs control will only be enhanced from any attempt to keep prices artificially high. Next, the OPEC countries of Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Algeria, and Indonesia cannot afford to reduce pumping. Their economies are addicted to crude. The lower the cost of oil, the more desperate those countries will be to sell oil. (Note: OPEC meets NOV 27. Expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth but no significant agreement.) Furthermore, Venezuela has truly killed the goose that laid the golden egg with it's descent into socialism. It will not stop selling every drop it can. which is kind of funny since it is Venezuela calling loudest for OPEC production cuts. Everyone knows that Venezuela wants OTHER countries to cut production to prop itself up. Popcorn futures are up across the board.
In other news. Russia's economy is boned. The Russian government is boned. This IMHO is the real reason Putin has invaded Crimea. The fact is that Russia's economy was in the crapper at $100 oil. At $70 oil Putin must keep all eyes (In Russia) focused outward while he desperately attempts to increase domestic production and salvage what he can. Half of the Russian budget is financed by petroleum sales. Half. In other, other news. U.S. and EU sanctions (Weak as they are) are targeted at Russia's oil industry, and are expected to significantly increase production costs for Russia in 2015. Russia is a proud old silver-tip of a bear, and it is being backed into a corner by events beyond it's ability to control or potentially, survive. It is quite possible that Putin will attempt something on a global scale with grave consequences to the world if the situation does not resolve itself in the next couple of years.
Remember:
Putin believes the U.S. under the SCOAMF is unwilling to take ANY serious action no matter how grave the provocation. The E.U. relies on the U.S. almost totally for military protection. The E.U. countries military's are largely non-existent paper tigers.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 18, 2014 18:46:15 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Nov 19, 2014 20:58:40 GMT
iceagenow.info/2014/11/years-snowfall-days/Nice snow pics. Glad I live in a hottish climate. It occurs to me that it would be hard to imagine a more efficient method of ultra rapid lake water cooling than the production of "lake effect" snow. Extremely cold and dry Arctic air travelling over warmish lake water would cool by both conduction and evaporation.
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