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Post by douglavers on Jan 14, 2015 19:48:24 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2015 2:09:49 GMT
Looks to me like the chances of an El Nino in 2015 are remote at best. Less than 50% in my opinion at this time.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 15, 2015 2:11:20 GMT
There is a small pool of warm water, but isn't there always a small pool of warm water? The cool pool via Antarctica and the Humboldt current just seems to grow and grow and grow. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jan 15, 2015 15:38:21 GMT
December PDO value comes in at a whopping 2.51! With the 'warm horse shoe' still in place it looks like the PDO will stay positive a while longer ( if it has not fully flipped positive and is still in a neg phase overall?) and this must increase, or keep stable, the chances of the double dip Nino event? With tropical disturbances helping enhance WWB's it looks like we might well be in for a re-run of last Jan with a mighty KW pushing out by late month/early Feb? This time I do not think the June/July Trades will squish things but that by then atmosphere will be in full cooperation? Should this prove true just how much of that 'warm pool' do we expect to flow back east? Keep rooting your El Nino on, Mr. Wolf. Some day you may actually get one of your predictions right. By the way, how's that global record sea ice extent treating you? I think I asked you once before but never received an answer. Let's assume for a moment you are correct and the world is experiencing "unprecedented, anthropogenic runaway warming." What, exactly, do you propose be done? Shut down the electrical grids? Stop the use of fossil fuels for transportation? Build lots and lots of windmills? Or clap our hands and jump up and down with glee that the deadly virus that is humankind will finally be flushed from "the planet" by the rise in sea level caused by Greenland and Antarctic ice melt? I think you must fall into the latter camp, since you treat any evidence of warming with the same attitude I have when I get a large bonus at work. Please, Mr. Wolf, this inquiring mind want to knows where you stand on solutions to your faux problem?
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Post by acidohm on Jan 15, 2015 16:31:57 GMT
Tbh I kinda like that there is a mix of opinions here....I'd like to know what the truth is and a broad picture is a far more informative one.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 15, 2015 17:40:52 GMT
Tbh I kinda like that there is a mix of opinions here....I'd like to know what the truth is and a broad picture is a far more informative one. One thing that has been a definite pattern for a longtime (or at least 2007 when I started closely monitoring it) is the NOAA longrange forecast is strongly and so far incorrectly slanted toward El Nino. One possible explanation for that is climate models drive many ENSO models and they do the same thing for climate, namely so far incorrectly slanted towards global warming. Not all the ENSO models are so influenced but enough of them are so as to shift the consensus and produce incorrect predictions on a regular basis. So knowing that its hard to look at the consensus probabilities for an upcoming El Nino and ascribe much of any probably that one will occur since it appears that El Nino probabilities are only around 50%. Probably better to look at the data and come to your own conclusion or alternatively plough through the archive data and find an individual model that has been relatively successful and follow that.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 17, 2015 1:01:11 GMT
Recent runs of NOAAs ENSO model is beginning to become erratic, with recent runs now predicting short term warming followed by long term cooling of the ENSO 3.4 index. For months they have been showing short term cooling followed by long term warming.
Not sure what is going on but experience suggests the models are now experiencing the cognitive dissonance that comes from the academic community and the models are going fritzy. I don't know which if any of those paths ENSO will follow, especially since I have been putting zero time into any analytical review of current conditions. Hoping for another major El Nino this year as we sure still need rain.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 17, 2015 1:18:03 GMT
I am like Graywolf and you. Hoping for an El Nino. Doesn't look good tho.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 17, 2015 3:01:17 GMT
December PDO value comes in at a whopping 2.51! With the 'warm horse shoe' still in place it looks like the PDO will stay positive a while longer ( if it has not fully flipped positive and is still in a neg phase overall?) and this must increase, or keep stable, the chances of the double dip Nino event? With tropical disturbances helping enhance WWB's it looks like we might well be in for a re-run of last Jan with a mighty KW pushing out by late month/early Feb? This time I do not think the June/July Trades will squish things but that by then atmosphere will be in full cooperation? Should this prove true just how much of that 'warm pool' do we expect to flow back east? Again Graywolf, there will not be an ENSO until at least the year 2020, and we will see signs of it coming by late 2017, but it will be a strong and powerful La Nina that will usher in the next decade. And I have to remind you that ENSO events are solar-planetary forced and occur every 10-11 years. The last ENSO, which I forecasted, was a El Nino in mid-2009 that was followed by a La Nina in 2010-11. Think of ENSO as climate change in action. You are seeing what amounts to a large scale variability in the circulatory system, and when you take out ENSO you are removing a climate mechanism where the thermal/kinetic exchange to equilibrium is achieved. ENSO is externally forced through the polar annular modes/AAM, and ENSO is climate change in action. What confounds the computer modellers about ENSO's cycle is that the thermodynamic response to perturbation is not linear. ENSO responds to fluctuations by the external forcing from the Sun. Understand at the dynamics of ENSO and what forces it. ENSO is forced by the Sun externally because the strength of the trade winds, that's Walker Cell dynamics, and the AAM integral come before ENSO SST variation. Now, the atmosphere is the less energetic body, so by definition there has to be an 'external' perturbation present. Evidence of such Solar forcing exists and the relationship is significant: Corotating coronal holes of the Sun induce fluctuations of the solar wind speed in the vicinity of the Earth. These fluctuations of solar wind speed are closely correlated with geomagnetic activity and the resultant geophysical climate and weather effects on Earth. It is basic to Astrometeorology. That is what I do. Now, solar wind speeds have been observed and monitored by orbiting Earth satellites since the mid-1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed clearly reveals enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period of 27.3 days and at its harmonics 13.6 and 9.1 days. The amplitude series are modulated by a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that has a period of 1.75a (that's 21 months) as bispectral analysis reveals. A 1.75a QBO component is also present in the equatorial, zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component at the period 2.4a (at 29 months.) The solar wind QBO influences the stratospheric QBO, the global electric circuit, and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux and particle precipitation. And the series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as function of time. The maxima of the solar wind QBO series correlate with those of the ENSO Index. Analysis confirms that the solar wind QBO helps to trigger ENSO activity. The solar forcing of ENSO is accomplished by changes in meridional flux through the NAM/SAM and that ties directly right back into planetary wave action. These events are climate change in action, but there will not be an ENSO until we reach the next decade.
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Post by douglavers on Jan 19, 2015 12:05:05 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jan 19, 2015 16:37:08 GMT
I'm not sure unisys can be relied on, they have been shown to publish charts with notable inconsistencies compared to a range of other service providers...
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2015 17:15:17 GMT
I'm not sure unisys can be relied on, they have been shown to publish charts with notable inconsistencies compared to a range of other service providers... Do you have a better global metric?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2015 17:17:16 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Jan 19, 2015 18:15:34 GMT
That's a fab web site, never tire of looking at it. Is the AMO about to take a dive? Seeing as the RSS lower trop. temperatures correlate well with the AMO, I'm hoping it doesn't: My pet theory regarding the apparent AMO / RSS link is that the AMO temps reflect changes in the global Thermohaline circulation which in turn impact global temps.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 19, 2015 19:09:59 GMT
I'm not sure unisys can be relied on, they have been shown to publish charts with notable inconsistencies compared to a range of other service providers... Do you have a better global metric? I'll try and dig up the source and alternatives....i think it was an article on wuwt??
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