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Post by acidohm on Jan 19, 2015 19:19:02 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2015 19:19:41 GMT
That's a fab web site, never tire of looking at it. Is the AMO about to take a dive? Seeing as the RSS lower trop. temperatures correlate well with the AMO, I'm hoping it doesn't: My pet theory regarding the apparent AMO / RSS link is that the AMO temps reflect changes in the global Thermohaline circulation which in turn impact global temps. There is most certainly correlation between the AMO and world wide temperatures. Is it ready to dive? Time indicates that this is potentially the case. Another reason that the warming has hit an apex?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2015 19:23:59 GMT
I agree with your analysis of his interpretation. A bit quick perhaps.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2015 22:04:16 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 20, 2015 1:01:07 GMT
I agree with your analysis of his interpretation. A bit quick perhaps. Interesting video. However, I suspect I could make a video just as persuasive about record warm temperatures as well. I agree that the patterns appear to be changing from one of solar forced warming to that of solar forced cooling. How Cold? Astromet and many others believe much much colder. We will see what the sun does in the next cycle and how the temps here on earth react. Interesting times we live in climatologically speaking.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 21, 2015 11:57:11 GMT
I agree with your analysis of his interpretation. A bit quick perhaps. Interesting video. However, I suspect I could make a video just as persuasive about record warm temperatures as well. I agree that the patterns appear to be changing from one of solar forced warming to that of solar forced cooling. How Cold? Astromet and many others believe much much colder. We will see what the sun does in the next cycle and how the temps here on earth react. Interesting times we live in climatologically speaking. Well if the forecasts of cold are right - I would not want to be one of the Sligo/Schmidt school of warmists insisting that the various governments prepare for high temperatures and cut down on cheap energy for heating. I rather fancy that Gavin's recent statement about the pause is the beginning of what could become a desperate CYA action.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jan 21, 2015 13:49:33 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2015 14:55:10 GMT
The lack of an El Nino developing indicates a record time period of no El Nino.
(Ok, the record is a damn short one, but that "recorded" phrase is used extensively in the AGW monolog.)
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Post by icefisher on Jan 21, 2015 16:15:13 GMT
The lack of an El Nino developing indicates a record time period of no El Nino. (Ok, the record is a damn short one, but that "recorded" phrase is used extensively in the AGW monolog.) Yep! Probably not all that significant except in the almost perfect timing where Gavin "the pause can't last" Schmidt's boss', James Hansen, declaration that El Nino is the new normal. '
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2015 16:41:22 GMT
The lack of an El Nino developing indicates a record time period of no El Nino. (Ok, the record is a damn short one, but that "recorded" phrase is used extensively in the AGW monolog.) Yep! Probably not all that significant except in the almost perfect timing where Gavin "the pause can't last" Schmidt's boss', James Hansen, declaration that El Nino is the new normal. ' I have to give Gavin credit, at least he is finally recognizing that there IS a pause. Actually, this step change is getting long in the tooth. We are either ready for another leg up, or a leg down. Astromet says it will be a leg down, the AGW advocates say it will be a leg up. Time will tell won't it?....
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2015 16:47:55 GMT
I wonder if the betting office will offer odds on a downward trend....maybe there's some money to be made!
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Post by graywolf on Jan 21, 2015 18:02:12 GMT
Back to the Nino! The is an warm upwelling wave following on from the current cooling in the East so I'm not thinking the 'threat' has gone away?
The past couple of years have seen a pretty significant KW push out at ther end of Jan/early Feb and this looks to be the case this year ( again?).
Should we see both wave and westerly wind burst then I'd still say we are on for a Nino over Summer/Autumn. Should the current 'progression', away from negative naturals continue, then this summer ( June/July/Aug) will not see the trades squish this forming Nino ( in fact they might synch up with the ocean).
This will aid the IPO to flip to warm surface phase and cement in PDO-ve.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 21, 2015 18:55:06 GMT
Back to the Nino! The is an warm upwelling wave following on from the current cooling in the East so I'm not thinking the 'threat' has gone away? The past couple of years have seen a pretty significant KW push out at ther end of Jan/early Feb and this looks to be the case this year ( again?). Should we see both wave and westerly wind burst then I'd still say we are on for a Nino over Summer/Autumn. Should the current 'progression', away from negative naturals continue, then this summer ( June/July/Aug) will not see the trades squish this forming Nino ( in fact they might synch up with the ocean). This will aid the IPO to flip to warm surface phase and cement in PDO-ve. In the 1950's in the middle of the last cool PDO there were two years of warm PDO. Current warm period only encompasses 2014. It will additionally require 2015 and 2016 to be positive to be a warm diversion of notable length. Even the academic models are pessimistic for 2015. The consensus mean is strongly neutral and almost equal to the statistical mean. The dynamic models are barely positive for El Nino and strongly split. Since most of the bias of the last half decade as been from climate models expressing the new "el nino normal" through the dynamic models, there isn't much support at all for a summer fall move to El Nino. That does not mean that conditions will not change but its no doubt several steps below crystal ball gazing to suggest that there is. . . .at least crystal ball gazing does not have a long record of bias. With Australia now in line with Astromet, how far behind will NOAA be? There recent announcement of "broad agreement" that 2014 was the warmest year when the models are NOT in broad agreement (only the NOAA chosen academic scientists are) what else can we expect from NOAA? Perhaps its time we ask the heads of NOAA and NASA stand down for ignoring science and making stuff up?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2015 19:09:16 GMT
Back to the Nino! The is an warm upwelling wave following on from the current cooling in the East so I'm not thinking the 'threat' has gone away? The past couple of years have seen a pretty significant KW push out at ther end of Jan/early Feb and this looks to be the case this year ( again?). Should we see both wave and westerly wind burst then I'd still say we are on for a Nino over Summer/Autumn. Should the current 'progression', away from negative naturals continue, then this summer ( June/July/Aug) will not see the trades squish this forming Nino ( in fact they might synch up with the ocean). This will aid the IPO to flip to warm surface phase and cement in PDO-ve. Last year, I wanted an El Nino, hoped for one but was having a very hard time seeing it developing. I feel the same way this year, want one, hope for one, but am having a very hard time seeing it developing. Hope you are correct Graywolf, but without major atmospheric change, I just can't see it happening.
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 22, 2015 1:14:29 GMT
Interesting times we live in climatologically speaking.[/quote]Well if the forecasts of cold are right - I would not want to be one of the Sligo/Schmidt school of warmists insisting that the various governments prepare for high temperatures and cut down on cheap energy for heating. I rather fancy that Gavin's recent statement about the pause is the beginning of what could become a desperate CYA action.[/font][/font] If I were Gavin I would be do some self reflecting and be wondering: 1.) What caused the pause 2.) Why did I miss it 3.) What is the current phase of the AMO and how has it effected our climate in the past. And if I were Gavin I would pay real, real close attention to number 3.) before I started forecasting things like warming in 10 years. If it follows its normal cycle just exactly when is that due to turn negative? And what does that typically do to temps in the NH?
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