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Post by nonentropic on Apr 10, 2015 20:01:30 GMT
In some ways it would be better if the change is abrupt, the world has been suffering from slow boiled frog syndrome for years.
The hypothesis that the world cools or the world warms needs a defining outcome. We have seen a flat period which has allowed small adjustments to generate temperature records where there are within errors none.
I have no scientific basis to judge which projection is going to be correct other than judging the integrity of the dialogue. When film stars and politicians are the mouthpiece my suspicions are heightened .
If you look at periods like the second world war marked by tremendous redirection of resources to fix problems. No disrespect to the esteemed farming people but farming is not rocket science its an application of effort to appropriate crop/land type, the world can do it.
Sig may need to spend time where there are no winters. But this depends on the outcome being clear enough that a purge happens one way or the other.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 12, 2015 13:57:14 GMT
This has been shown before but it bears showing again. A graph of the terrifying surge in temperatures over the last few years When people have to resort to averaging metrics that are meaningless averaged then display the meaningless average on graphs with distorted Y axes, you know that the entire enterprise is a scam.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 12, 2015 14:12:44 GMT
You can also tell it's hot cuz the lines are in red.....
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Post by Ratty on Apr 12, 2015 22:05:25 GMT
Nautonnier, have you got a reference for the chart?
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 13, 2015 2:34:58 GMT
Nautonnier, have you got a reference for the chart? It is the GISS temperatures but displayed on a chart that shows global temperatures on a scale showing reasonable global temperatures -40 to +120 F. You can do it yourself with your favorite global average temperature chart. Remember Gavin Schmidt getting all excited about the global average temperature having a 62% chance of not being 2 hundredths of a degree higher than average? You cannot even see that on the chart I attach, and the error bars are a few orders of magnitude greater. Whenever you see a chart with manipulated axes you can be assured that the intent is to distort the facts to push a message.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 14, 2015 22:15:35 GMT
Nautonnier, have you got a reference for the chart? It is the GISS temperatures but displayed on a chart that shows global temperatures on a scale showing reasonable global temperatures -40 to +120 F. You can do it yourself with your favorite global average temperature chart. Remember Gavin Schmidt getting all excited about the global average temperature having a 62% chance of not being 2 hundredths of a degree higher than average? You cannot even see that on the chart I attach, and the error bars are a few orders of magnitude greater. Whenever you see a chart with manipulated axes you can be assured that the intent is to distort the facts to push a message. I've tried charting some of the Australian long term stations using Excel and found that I wasn't as smart as I thought. What I did find was that - away from the big cities - all stations with an uninterrupted record ** showed a slight downward trend in maximum temps and that our temperature records are in an appalling state. I fail to see how anyone can claim to know anything about Australian temperature trends, given the shocking state of the record. ** station not physically moved and with contiguous data
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 15, 2015 0:16:45 GMT
It is the GISS temperatures but displayed on a chart that shows global temperatures on a scale showing reasonable global temperatures -40 to +120 F. You can do it yourself with your favorite global average temperature chart. Remember Gavin Schmidt getting all excited about the global average temperature having a 62% chance of not being 2 hundredths of a degree higher than average? You cannot even see that on the chart I attach, and the error bars are a few orders of magnitude greater. Whenever you see a chart with manipulated axes you can be assured that the intent is to distort the facts to push a message. I've tried charting some of the Australian long term stations using Excel and found that I wasn't as smart as I thought. What I did find was that - away from the big cities - all stations with an uninterrupted record ** showed a slight downward trend in maximum temps and that our temperature records are in an appalling state. I fail to see how anyone can claim to know anything about Australian temperature trends, given the shocking state of the record. ** station not physically moved and with contiguous data Ratty Ole Man: Don't you know why they invented dart boards?
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 15, 2015 23:00:34 GMT
Theo, thanks for you time, your energy, and your insights. I'm always willing to admit to changing climate regimes, just as long as the sources of said change are identified correctly. From what I've seen, experienced, and read, your predictions have been "spot-on." Thanks billlee49, as forecasting has never been easier, at least for me, and that's because I fully accepted the laws of physics a long time ago. As for the climate change to global cooling, it is surely coming, and the causes have long since been identified. It really is a matter of knowing those physical laws in operation, then to forecast, and that is what I do.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 27, 2015 0:40:14 GMT
In some ways it would be better if the change is abrupt, the world has been suffering from slow boiled frog syndrome for years. The hypothesis that the world cools or the world warms needs a defining outcome. We have seen a flat period which has allowed small adjustments to generate temperature records where there are within errors none. I have no scientific basis to judge which projection is going to be correct other than judging the integrity of the dialogue. When film stars and politicians are the mouthpiece my suspicions are heightened . If you look at periods like the second world war marked by tremendous redirection of resources to fix problems. No disrespect to the esteemed farming people but farming is not rocket science its an application of effort to appropriate crop/land type, the world can do it. Sig may need to spend time where there are no winters. But this depends on the outcome being clear enough that a purge happens one way or the other. Nonentropic, The "scientific basis to judge which projection is going to be correct" really is what we are talking about here, but conventional climate science is very young and has little to no experience with medium, much less long-range climate forecasts. The point being that unless there is proof that one can forecast then the integrity of that speaks for itself. As for farming under global cooling, I have been forecasting global cooling for many years and the official year of it officially beginning is a little more than just two (2) years away. I have been urging farmers to begin making preparations, if they still want to continue farming, for the climate change ot global cooling.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 28, 2015 0:43:35 GMT
An interesting reply to a post on WUWT by Joe Bastardi on the 'El Nino' beig talked up by NOAA. "I would also look for a MAJOR flip in the coming 3 years to a nasty la nina, and with the amo turning cold, the drop in global temps after this current warmer period should take them down further than post 07/10 ensos. I would suggest a close look at the evolution of the SST GLOBALLY in the late 1950s and early 60s for a similar situation. cheers to all"More support for Theo
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Post by AstroMet on May 6, 2015 1:12:35 GMT
An interesting reply to a post on WUWT by Joe Bastardi on the 'El Nino' beig talked up by NOAA. "I would also look for a MAJOR flip in the coming 3 years to a nasty la nina, and with the amo turning cold, the drop in global temps after this current warmer period should take them down further than post 07/10 ensos. I would suggest a close look at the evolution of the SST GLOBALLY in the late 1950s and early 60s for a similar situation. cheers to all"More support for Theo By the time the great majority sees and experiences the nasty La Nina I've forecasted to come as this decade ends and the next one begins Nautonnier, it will be far too late to prepare. Everything that has been happening to the Earth's climate, since, say 2001, has been along the lines of transitional climate conditions featuring 'extremes of weather' which has increased over the last decade and into this one. We're closer now to the official start of global cooling (December 2017 according to my calculations) and the current era of solar-forced global warming is surely in its last waning years. The thing about ENSO, again, as I've said numerous times before, is that ENSO is a decadal climate event, caused by the Sun and planets relative to Earth. The last ENSO of 2009-2011 had all the signatures and that is how I forecasted that one.
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Post by missouriboy on May 6, 2015 4:37:34 GMT
An interesting reply to a post on WUWT by Joe Bastardi on the 'El Nino' beig talked up by NOAA. "I would also look for a MAJOR flip in the coming 3 years to a nasty la nina, and with the amo turning cold, the drop in global temps after this current warmer period should take them down further than post 07/10 ensos. I would suggest a close look at the evolution of the SST GLOBALLY in the late 1950s and early 60s for a similar situation. cheers to all"More support for Theo And below that ... comments/opinion relating to a slowdown in equator-to-pole heat transport in both the Atlantic AND the Pacific. Interesting times indeed. I hope someone(s) is capturing the mechanics of all this. So about 60 years ago in the 1950’s, round about one oceanic (~60 year) oscillation cycle ago, the Pacific was … the same as today, a warm blob. What may be happening is a general cyclical slow-down in equator to pole transport of warm water. Note for instance the slowdown of the north Atlantic drift evidenced by the pile up of sea level off the NE USA coast. The warm blob could be due to a slowing of the Pacific gyre and reduction in vertical mixing. And warm water off California due to a slowdown of the normal cold current from the north. In support of this, Bill Illis noted that the Pacfic “warm blob” is leftover warm water from the 2010 el Nino but he expressed surprise that the rotation of this water around the north Pacific gyre has taken as long as 7-8 years – this was slower than expected:
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Post by neilhamp on May 6, 2015 5:06:25 GMT
Astro, Have you made any forecast regarding the drought in California They seem to be linked to La Nina conditions. When is it likely to come to an end?
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Post by missouriboy on May 6, 2015 15:09:37 GMT
Space and Science Research CorporationP.O. Box 607841 * Orlando, FL 32860 (407) 667-4757 * www.spaceandscience.netNew Cold Climate to Devastate Global Agriculture within Ten Years Thursday, April 30, 2015 Press Release 2-2015 www.spaceandscience.net/id16.htmlRationale Summary The rationale for the crop loss prediction in SSRC Press Release 2-2015 is as follows: 1. Recent trends have been affirmed the predicted shift of global climate from the past era 2. The ongoing reduction in energy output from the Sun has been confirmed 3. A new round of major volcanic activity worldwide has begun as predicted by the SSRC, 4. A new trend of increasingly early starts to and greater cold depth of winters has begun to produce a trend of snow and temperature records being broken that are over 100 years old. 5. Of particular concern is the added trend toward cold wet springs as seen in 2013, 2014 and now in 2015 which caused spring planting to be delayed. 6. Other trends pointing to a shift to global cooling have underscored this SSRC prediction of imminent damage to the global agricultural system including: a. There has been no effective growth in global temperatures for 18 years b. The polar regions of the planet are now getting colder. c. A track of contiguous US temperatures by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) demonstrates a long term decline is in place for the winter and spring planting season. 7. The North Atlantic Ocean has begun a rapid cooling phase Details at: www.spaceandscience.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/ssrcpressrelease22015rationale.pdf
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Post by nautonnier on May 8, 2015 14:19:15 GMT
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