I wondered if you had any comment on their 0.5 degree rise in temperature over the next 3 years. They are suggesting we may exceed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures in 2023 (25% chance)
Straight edges are good for their kind of work. If the glaciers were grinding through their back yards, they would say the same thing, as they are legally blind. Their confidence intervals reflect institutional insanity. They haven't had a good downer since the 60s, which is when most of them escaped from the asylum. Tell Boris he could chuck the whole lot and save a lot of money. Just get a dart board and let the cabinet have a go at it.
I see the BBC are now reporting the Met Office rise in temperature above 1.5 degrees They are even suggesting the chances of 1.5 degrees have risen to 40% This is all hype prior to the COP26 conference
It's becoming more likely that a key global temperature limit will be reached in one of the next five years. A major study says by 2025 there's a 40% chance of at least one year being 1.5C hotter than the pre-industrial level. That's the lower of two temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change. The conclusion comes in a report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The analysis is based on modelling by the UK Met Office and climate researchers in 10 countries including the US and China. In the last decade, it was estimated that the chance of any one year reaching the 1.5C threshold was only 20%. This new assessment puts that risk at 40%.