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Post by missouriboy on Feb 8, 2019 5:07:17 GMT
Good idea. Do you know how to select and copy a post and paste it in a new thread? Or do I just highlight it all, copy and paste??
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Post by Ratty on Feb 8, 2019 6:09:10 GMT
Good idea. Do you know how to select and copy a post and paste it in a new thread? Or do I just highlight it all, copy and paste?? Have a look at the Watching and Waiting thread. I can tidy it up if you like .... or we can ignore it altogether. ** ** I'm used to that ....
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 8, 2019 11:17:00 GMT
You're welcome. As for how cold it will get, from my calculations, it looks like we have a 2.8 degree Celsius decline by the year by 2029-2030. It is going to get colder and colder during the 2020s and by the mid-2030s, we will already be within the mini-ice age. As global cooling begins in December 2017, we will have, according to my climate forecast, the next ENSO between 2019-2022, a moderate El Nino followed by a strong La Nina - the first in modern times under the new climate regime of global cooling. TRACKING THE FORECASTS - HOUSEKEEPINGI lose track so I'm stacking some of Astro's forecasts here as I review this thread. Some place I can go back to when I have a brain "burp". Next ENSO Event - 2019-2022 Forecast Moderate El Nino - mid 2019 into 2020 Forecast Strong La Nina - 2021 - 2022 Temperature decline (global I assume) of 2.8 C - 2016 to 2029-30 (essentially the next solar cycle - SC25). If I missed anything there Astro, please correct me. Well, I went in and grabbed a few past graphs to try and evaluate what a 2.8 C temperature shift could look like AND how fast such events might happen given past data, IF we even have a comparable. World Long Historical First, I have no global temperature time series to compare. Most seem to be based on Ice core and tree ring analysis, and the range from top to bottom is nowhere near 2.8 C. Graph 5 for the American Grain Belt cross section shows a range of about 6 C, but that is regional, not global. Graph 6 compares the long winter records for Philadelphia to the CET and Philly has a max range of about 5 C. Again local/regional, not global. A drop of 2.8 C for graph 5 would bring temps back to the late 1800s. The same for graph 6 would return temps to Dalton Minimum winter levels. Base Temperature Transition Time Many historical graphs show that temperatures and indexes can change dramatically within a decade or so. ENSO aggregate values in graphs 3 & 4 show a sharp drop from 1947-57 and an even sharper rise (the Great Climate Shift) from 1976 to 1986. The Philadelphia winter times series also shows these same shifts of about 2 to 2.5 C. The American Grain Belt series show that annual temperature variance has increased dramatically since about 2005, with year to year swings in temperature spanning 4 C. I know that Joe believes that ocean heat may take a long time to "bleed off", but maybe they said the same thing back in the late 1940s. I'm not sure we really have a bankable clue as to how fast the ocean is transferring heat to the atmosphere (And it's still a travesty Kevin!). One decade from 2015 (which was when this forecast was made) brings us to 2025, 3 years after the strong forecasted La Nina, and deep into the heart of SC25. If, by then, we are still asking each other if it's over, then .... Best bet may still be to keep your coats ... and buy quantities of good quality thermal undies. Sig. Can we start a good quality wool exchange? What if the series of climate shifts from 1976 onwards were the oceans bleeding off their energy? Concentration has all been on the atmospheric temperatures. Perhaps the ocean heat content might be a better metric. Look at all the cold water appearing at depth now. Perhaps the reason for the modern warming was the oceans venting their heat. If that were to be true then cold atmospheric temperatures may come faster than people currently believe possible.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2019 4:06:33 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2019 4:09:43 GMT
TRACKING THE FORECASTS - HOUSEKEEPINGI lose track so I'm stacking some of Astro's forecasts here as I review this thread. Some place I can go back to when I have a brain "burp". Next ENSO Event - 2019-2022 Forecast Moderate El Nino - mid 2019 into 2020 Forecast Strong La Nina - 2021 - 2022 Temperature decline (global I assume) of 2.8 C - 2016 to 2029-30 (essentially the next solar cycle - SC25). If I missed anything there Astro, please correct me. Well, I went in and grabbed a few past graphs to try and evaluate what a 2.8 C temperature shift could look like AND how fast such events might happen given past data, IF we even have a comparable. World Long Historical First, I have no global temperature time series to compare. Most seem to be based on Ice core and tree ring analysis, and the range from top to bottom is nowhere near 2.8 C. Graph 5 for the American Grain Belt cross section shows a range of about 6 C, but that is regional, not global. Graph 6 compares the long winter records for Philadelphia to the CET and Philly has a max range of about 5 C. Again local/regional, not global. A drop of 2.8 C for graph 5 would bring temps back to the late 1800s. The same for graph 6 would return temps to Dalton Minimum winter levels. Base Temperature Transition Time Many historical graphs show that temperatures and indexes can change dramatically within a decade or so. ENSO aggregate values in graphs 3 & 4 show a sharp drop from 1947-57 and an even sharper rise (the Great Climate Shift) from 1976 to 1986. The Philadelphia winter times series also shows these same shifts of about 2 to 2.5 C. The American Grain Belt series show that annual temperature variance has increased dramatically since about 2005, with year to year swings in temperature spanning 4 C. I know that Joe believes that ocean heat may take a long time to "bleed off", but maybe they said the same thing back in the late 1940s. I'm not sure we really have a bankable clue as to how fast the ocean is transferring heat to the atmosphere (And it's still a travesty Kevin!). One decade from 2015 (which was when this forecast was made) brings us to 2025, 3 years after the strong forecasted La Nina, and deep into the heart of SC25. If, by then, we are still asking each other if it's over, then .... Best bet may still be to keep your coats ... and buy quantities of good quality thermal undies. Sig. Can we start a good quality wool exchange? What if the series of climate shifts from 1976 onwards were the oceans bleeding off their energy? Concentration has all been on the atmospheric temperatures. Perhaps the ocean heat content might be a better metric. Look at all the cold water appearing at depth now. Perhaps the reason for the modern warming was the oceans venting their heat. If that were to be true then cold atmospheric temperatures may come faster than people currently believe possible. Looks about right Nautonnier, so you can see why I've been warning about the climate of global cooling and the Sun's super Grand Minimum.
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Post by nautonnier on May 29, 2019 18:01:58 GMT
"The Sun follows the rhythm of the planets, says German research institute
No s**t Sherlock! Numerous independent researchers, some featured at the Talkshop, have been working along such lines for years with little apparent recognition and even a certain amount of negative reaction (like this), let’s say.
New study corroborates the influence of planetary tidal forces on solar activity.
One of the big questions in solar physics is why the Sun’s activity follows a regular cycle of 11 years. Researchers from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), an independent German research institute, now present new findings, indicating that the tidal forces of Venus, Earth and Jupiter influence the solar magnetic field, thus governing the solar cycle.
The team of researchers present their findings in the journal Solar Physics (doi: 10.1007/s11207-019-1447-1)."More at tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/05/29/the-sun-follows-the-rhythm-of-the-planets-says-german-research-institute/
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Post by juancarnuba on May 30, 2019 0:55:34 GMT
I always understood the ~11 year cycle was mainly determined by the orbit of Jupiter ((11.86 years)I think)) with a large influence from Saturn. The four gaseous giants have a large effect on the Doppler Wobble, orbit of the Sun. Take a look how far apart the Sun and the Solar Barycenter will be in 2022. Quiet times.
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Post by nautonnier on May 30, 2019 1:33:12 GMT
I always understood the ~11 year cycle was mainly determined by the orbit of Jupiter ((11.86 years)I think)) with a large influence from Saturn. The four gaseous giants have a large effect on the Doppler Wobble, orbit of the Sun. Take a look how far apart the Sun and the Solar Barycenter will be in 2022. Quiet times. The interesting thing to check, which I have never seen raised, is whether the path of the barycenter is prograde or retrograde to the rotation of the Sun. Prograde barycenter path would have a completely different effect on the layers of the Sun to a retrograde barycenter path. One of the things I would like to see modeled is that barycenter path through and around the sun in comparison to the rotation of the Sun.
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Post by missouriboy on May 30, 2019 2:17:11 GMT
Cloud Cover in Columbia, Missouri Continues to Increase (2012-2019)
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Post by Ratty on May 30, 2019 4:25:44 GMT
Cloud Cover in Columbia, Missouri Continues to Increase (2012-2019) ... and the reason is warming / cosmic rays / no idea. Pick one or add your own.
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Post by nautonnier on May 31, 2019 11:34:21 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 4, 2019 13:30:25 GMT
So we are looking at an anomaly of 0.3C. A met observer reading a Stevenson screen would round down a 0.3C to 0.0C. Are we really screaming climate 'emergency' over what would be considered a zero C anomaly?
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 5, 2019 20:03:41 GMT
So we are looking at an anomaly of 0.3C. A met observer reading a Stevenson screen would round down a 0.3C to 0.0C. Are we really screaming climate 'emergency' over what would be considered a zero C anomaly? Goodbye 0.3 C. May be a while before we see you again.☹️
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 6, 2019 7:20:48 GMT
Cloud Cover in Columbia, Missouri Continues to Increase (2012-2019) ... and the reason is warming / cosmic rays / no idea. Pick one or add your own. Time series is too short. It comes from the daily sky cover measures (0-10) reported on the NWS weather page climate summary. I have written them down since about 2017, but they only show up for about 36 mths and then disappear. Also not available on daily NCDC data records. Summer 2012 was very dry, so may not be best starting point.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 6, 2019 16:52:23 GMT
This been done before?? 🤔
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