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Post by sigurdur on Aug 20, 2015 17:28:23 GMT
The average success rate of NOAA's long term forecast is less than 50%. So, might as well go with the Old Farmers. Their success rate is over 70%.
I read a paper some time ago in an ag magazine comparing the reliability of both in a side by side setting. Both can be wrong, but seems the Old Farmers is wrong less than NOAA.
Now, isn't that a hoot?
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 20, 2015 19:59:35 GMT
The average success rate of NOAA's long term forecast is less than 50%. So, might as well go with the Old Farmers. Their success rate is over 70%. I read a paper some time ago in an ag magazine comparing the reliability of both in a side by side setting. Both can be wrong, but seems the Old Farmers is wrong less than NOAA. Now, isn't that a hoot? Could save a lot of $$$$ by subcontracting to Old Farmers.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 21, 2015 8:44:07 GMT
I think the triple 'R' and the triple 'T' will ensure a similar winter in the US to the past two with Alaska basking and Boston rebuilding their 'pile'.
I'm more concerned with the muck all of that will send our way? Will the jet swing north and give us a mild snow less winter or will it tear across the pond and flood us out once more.
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 21, 2015 18:22:46 GMT
There will never be snow our children will marvel at photos of snow. Yeh right!!
Sorry GW the future will look much like the past, variable.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 21, 2015 22:55:06 GMT
I think the triple 'R' and the triple 'T' will ensure a similar winter in the US to the past two with Alaska basking and Boston rebuilding their 'pile'. I'm more concerned with the muck all of that will send our way? Will the jet swing north and give us a mild snow less winter or will it tear across the pond and flood us out once more. I wish the stream would go north. ..its spent all bloody summer over France. .good luck, my money is on cold winter :/
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Post by acidohm on Aug 22, 2015 6:09:46 GMT
Any thoughts on the chances of the Pacific Northwest getting a cold winter? I want one but I'm doubtful. I think graywolf is right code, the warm blob and now frigid atlantic will split the US as polar vortex is likely in the east and dry/mild in the west. I'm sorry to say your chances are poor on a cold PNW winter.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 30, 2015 17:42:18 GMT
Here is Joe Bastardi's winter forecast for N. America. Looks reasonably similar to Old Farmers, but wetter in Missouri, Oklahomo, Texas and the western half of the deep South. www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-29-2015Does anyone have anything similar for Western Europe?
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Post by acidohm on Aug 30, 2015 17:56:39 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 30, 2015 20:58:34 GMT
Well let's see if the 'Gore Effect' works in Paris during COP15. Paris snowed in and aircraft of delegates diverted would be interesting. It might be difficult to attribute the extra snow to Global Warming caused by CO2 although they would try.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 30, 2015 23:39:01 GMT
Thank you Acidohm! I thought this comment was interesting .... "With No Tripole, the Atlantic will be in an Increasingly cold pattern forecast this year in the North, the Coldest for 2 decades, could this drive an increase of strong stormy flows, turned into cold & wintry NW flows for 2015-2016 in particular. This, in turn with the very strong Modoki El Nino in place, could come together to create something truly remarkable during early 2016, in a scientific sense; as this pattern has not been observed before. "
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 31, 2015 1:20:34 GMT
Here is Joe Bastardi's winter forecast for N. America. Looks reasonably similar to Old Farmers, but wetter in Missouri, Oklahomo, Texas and the western half of the deep South. www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-29-2015Does anyone have anything similar for Western Europe? Farmers says cold and snow for the PNW but Joe says warm and dry with only 25% for snow. Heck. You might want to send a donation to "that Old Farmer"!
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Post by acidohm on Sept 21, 2015 16:46:01 GMT
In general (and we mean in general), colder water [in the North Atlantic] tends to promote troughs i.e low pressure and warmer water tends to promote ridging (or high pressure). This is by no means certain, but anomalies such as this would indicate pressure lower to the Southwest of the UK and pressure higher to the North. We will take a closer look at winter next month but many planners are already preparing for winter now and this type of set up would favour a colder than average winter for the UK.
Statement from Metcheck on Facebook page....seen a few weather organisations taking this line recently.....
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 21, 2015 19:06:12 GMT
In general (and we mean in general), colder water [in the North Atlantic] tends to promote troughs i.e low pressure and warmer water tends to promote ridging (or high pressure). This is by no means certain, but anomalies such as this would indicate pressure lower to the Southwest of the UK and pressure higher to the North. We will take a closer look at winter next month but many planners are already preparing for winter now and this type of set up would favour a colder than average winter for the UK. Statement from Metcheck on Facebook page....seen a few weather organisations taking this line recently..... Joe Bastardi's Set. 19 saturday summary talks about a cold NW Europe toward the end of the video. www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-september-19-2015
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Post by acidohm on Sept 21, 2015 20:23:24 GMT
Yeah....this link was posted on the above Facebook post too, thing is..I've been banging on about this winter being cold to friends and family for about 18 months now, because I feel the quiet sun affects the weather here in N Europe.
Is this cold atlantic patch a result of low activity or something else...maybe it'll warm up and following years won't cool as the sun quietens.
I was expecting the cold to be more of an atmospheric forced event then a ocean one, I've not really seen any science on why the sea has gone cold other then warmists based stuff which says the NA drift is slowing, but the science often seems sketchy.
Oh well.....guess we'll see!!!
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 22, 2015 0:50:20 GMT
Yeah....this link was posted on the above Facebook post too, thing is..I've been banging on about this winter being cold to friends and family for about 18 months now, because I feel the quiet sun affects the weather here in N Europe. Is this cold atlantic patch a result of low activity or something else...maybe it'll warm up and following years won't cool as the sun quietens. I was expecting the cold to be more of an atmospheric forced event then a ocean one, I've not really seen any science on why the sea has gone cold other then warmists based stuff which says the NA drift is slowing, but the science often seems sketchy. Oh well.....guess we'll see!!! It ISNT slowing. That is the thing. Measurements clearly show that it is at average volume. Sure, models say it is slowing but a paper in the last few months where the authors used measurements clearly indicated it isnt. Another AGW garbage pile that it is slowing.
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