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Post by nautonnier on Aug 10, 2020 12:11:15 GMT
Sinabung has been bubbling all weekend, now finally, Boom! 32,000ft won't quite make it to the stratosphere as the tropopause is 10,000-15,000 higher than that close to the equator, so this should only have local weather impact. |
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 11, 2020 20:28:57 GMT
"
Earthquake Forecast for the Salton Sea Swarm of August 2020
Release Date: August 10, 2020
A swarm of earthquakes beneath the Salton Sea began on August 10, 2020.
The largest earthquake that has occurred, as of this release, is a magnitude 4.6 at 8:56 AM PDT on August 10. This earthquake and the associated swarm are located approximately 8 miles from the southern end of the San Andreas Fault. This area has also seen swarms in the past – most recently, in 2001, 2009, and 2016. Past swarms have remained active for 1 to 20 days, with an average duration of about a week.
During this earthquake swarm, the probability of larger earthquakes in this region is significantly greater than usual. The southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault is capable of rupturing in large magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 7+), but the last earthquake that strong was more than 300 years ago. In a typical week, there is approximately a 1 in 10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault. That probability is significantly elevated while swarm activity remains high.
The following three scenarios describe possibilities of what could happen from 10 August to 18 August.
Only one of these scenarios will occur within the next week. These scenarios include the possibility of earthquakes on and off the San Andreas Fault.
Scenario One (Most likely, about 80% chance): Earthquakes continue but none will be larger than magnitude 5.4 within the next 7 days.
The most likely scenario is that the rate of earthquakes in the swarm will decrease over the next 7 days. Some moderately sized earthquakes may occur (magnitude in the range M4.5-M5.4), which could cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M3.0+) may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (Less likely, about 19% chance): A larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) could occur within the next 7 days.
A less likely scenario is a somewhat larger earthquake (up to a M6.9). Earthquakes of this size could cause damage around the Salton Sea area and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
Scenario Three (Least Likely, approximately 1% chance): A much larger earthquake (magnitude 7 or higher) could occur within the next 7 days.
A much less likely scenario, compared with the previous two scenarios, is that the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M4.6 that occurred on the 10 August (i.e., M7.0 and above). While this is a very small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day."More here> www.usgs.gov/center-news/earthquake-forecast-salton-sea-swarm-august-2020
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 8, 2020 12:49:53 GMT
A precursor to the 'big one' at Wigan?  "'Earthquake in Leighton Buzzard? What next 2020??'
Shocked residents report 'houses shaking' and 'windows rattling' after 3.9 tremor strikes in Bedfordshire town which is felt across Home Counties
Tremors reported in Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire
One local said they 'felt their whole house shake' when earthquake struck
Some 610,000 people live in the affected area and it originated north of London"www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8709153/Earthquake-measuring-3-9-Richter-scale-hits-southern-England.html |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 8, 2020 13:22:06 GMT
A precursor to the 'big one' at Wigan? "'Earthquake in Leighton Buzzard? What next 2020??'
Shocked residents report 'houses shaking' and 'windows rattling' after 3.9 tremor strikes in Bedfordshire town which is felt across Home Counties
Tremors reported in Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire
One local said they 'felt their whole house shake' when earthquake struck
Some 610,000 people live in the affected area and it originated north of London"www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8709153/Earthquake-measuring-3-9-Richter-scale-hits-southern-England.htmlMy wife 20 mins away and 2 mates 5 mins away....nothing 😄 There was apparently a 2 at my home town this year.....didn't know. Disappointing tbh! "North of London" Like "London-Oxford Airport" is NW of London 😉 |
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 8, 2020 13:37:50 GMT
A precursor to the 'big one' at Wigan? "'Earthquake in Leighton Buzzard? What next 2020??'
Shocked residents report 'houses shaking' and 'windows rattling' after 3.9 tremor strikes in Bedfordshire town which is felt across Home Counties
Tremors reported in Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire
One local said they 'felt their whole house shake' when earthquake struck
Some 610,000 people live in the affected area and it originated north of London"www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8709153/Earthquake-measuring-3-9-Richter-scale-hits-southern-England.htmlMy wife 20 mins away and 2 mates 5 mins away....nothing 😄 There was apparently a 2 at my home town this year.....didn't know. Disappointing tbh! "North of London" Like "London-Oxford Airport" is NW of London 😉 The largest I experienced was in Santiago Chile. I was on the 8th floor of a hotel. And there was a feeling that I had felt before in London where you are in a building over one of the shallower underground lines and you feel the rumble of trains going past. My mind then did a double take - you are on the eighth floor.... Then another train went past then it stopped. Not a particularly over exciting event as it could have been with me on the eighth floor  I grew up in South London, anything North of Highgate was "the North" till I went to Sleaford Tech. |
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Post by duwayne on Sept 8, 2020 13:58:17 GMT
I was in a high-rise circular hotel in Tokyo on maybe the 20th floor and was in bed but not yet asleep when the room began to sway back and forth. I started to get out of bed when I realized I couldn't stand up because of the swaying. It lasted several seconds and it was enough to make me feel nauseous. There was no damage that I could see.
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 8, 2020 19:04:09 GMT
We are on the ring of fire that is but a scratch.
Admittedly if you had an earthquake 3 orders of magnitude larger it would disassemble the reinforcing less buildings in the UK or in fact a large part of the world.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 20, 2020 0:33:34 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 30, 2020 16:22:46 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 30, 2020 16:55:53 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 31, 2020 14:51:30 GMT
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Post by youngjasper on Dec 21, 2020 15:33:44 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 25, 2020 4:29:29 GMT
The Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 ... and ... Chronologically it was the third known large scale earthquake to hit the city (there had been one in 1321 and another in 1531). You will note where these fall on the timeline of solar activity. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake  |
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 25, 2020 5:02:58 GMT
The Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 ... and ... Chronologically it was the third known large scale earthquake to hit the city (there had been one in 1321 and another in 1531). You will note where these fall on the timeline of solar activity. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake I blame 'Bary' I wonder if there is any way of calculating the LOD changes for those dates |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 27, 2020 2:29:56 GMT
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