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Post by missouriboy on Jun 24, 2020 2:32:36 GMT
i'll be 62 in 28 .. ffs way to old to do much (as most of my fam died before this )but the kids are well trained .. just have to source them some pow pow .. and leaving them a solid house they might make it ... i have tried to get them to move to auz For a small fee, Flea, I may be able to get them past customs. Shall I file that under customs of OZ?
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Post by Ratty on Jun 24, 2020 5:31:19 GMT
For a small fee, Flea, I may be able to get them past customs. Shall I file that under customs of OZ? We really don't have any 'customs' as such, apart from the Fly Salute out West.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 24, 2020 9:57:31 GMT
I think a little more ubiquitous than just out west.
but truly a salute.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 24, 2020 12:45:44 GMT
I think a little more ubiquitous than just out west. but truly a salute. You may have a point, Non. PS: I do remember attending a political conference in 1967. It was held in a marquee on a sheep property near Tara on the Western Darling Downs. There was a compressor and spray gun attached to a twelve gallon drum of insect repellent. All attendee were sprayed on arrival. I blame it for all my personality defects.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 24, 2020 15:09:08 GMT
I think a little more ubiquitous than just out west. but truly a salute. You may have a point, Non. PS: I do remember attending a political conference in 1967. It was held in a marquee on a sheep property near Tara on the Western Darling Downs. There was a compressor and spray gun attached to a twelve gallon drum of insect repellent. All attendee were sprayed on arrival. I blame it for all my personality defects. Finally admitting your wife has been correct all those years eh Ratty?
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 25, 2020 11:02:37 GMT
I think a little more ubiquitous than just out west. but truly a salute. You may have a point, Non. PS: I do remember attending a political conference in 1967. It was held in a marquee on a sheep property near Tara on the Western Darling Downs. There was a compressor and spray gun attached to a twelve gallon drum of insect repellent. All attendee were sprayed on arrival. I blame it for all my personality defects. Better sprayed than spayed ... as Mel might say.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 25, 2020 18:55:43 GMT
Bring back DDT!!!
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 25, 2020 21:05:26 GMT
If only it were more selective. I have bees and butterflies and dragonflies and birds everywhere. If only I could selectively massacre the ticks.
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Post by flearider on Jun 25, 2020 22:19:05 GMT
For a small fee, Flea, I may be able to get them past customs. Shall I file that under customs of OZ? no a couple of yrs from now when the shit hit's the fan .. i'll just give the Irish side of the family a shout .. there like magic things appear or disappear.. a couple of sa80's for $2k .. then i have the dads side .. yorkies but they like pistols
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 3, 2020 15:59:30 GMT
A Comparison of Two High-Low Solar Transitions: SC19-20 and SC23-24Chart 3 shows the month-to-month solar transition using sunspot tallies for 12 Solar Cycles from SC13 (start 1890) to SC24 (start 2008). These cycles lengths range from 119 months (SC22) to 148 months (SC23). Kickoff to the first peak is steep, usually beginning about month 21. The two prominent exceptions are SC13, which started 8 months earlier, and SC24, which started 5 months later than the normal. It is obvious that the SC24 sunspot transition is the lowest in the 12-cycle series. The 7-cycle 20th century grand maximum consists of two high periods: SC17 - SC19 and SC21 - SC23 separated by one low Cycle, SC20 at the end of the first half and a second low, SC24 at the end of the second.. Flux totals slope upward across the first half and downward across the second half. Chart 2 shows the monthly sunspot transition for the two halves. It is apparent that the second half is characterized by much greater variance than the first half. Part of this may be due to more sunspots being counted in recent years. It seems unlikely that this would account for the total difference in variance. There is great difference in opinion as to the strength of up coming solar cycle 25. Some believe it will be higher ... some lower. The "easy" concensus forecast is that it will be "the same". Solar cycle 20 was followed by a much higher cycle ... the first of the second half of the 20th century grand maximum. Chart 1 shows that SC20 and SC24 opened with about the same number of sunspots, but they ended with much different values ... SC24 being much lower. This level is, of course, the level at which SC25 will start. In fact, it may have already started given the propensity of recent sunspots in the sun's southern hemisphere. Also noting that SC24 made its initial sharp jump about 5 months later than the normal across cycles. This first initial jump would normally occur about 15 to 20 months into the cycle. If SC25 began between Dec. 2019 and Mar. 2020, the "fire up" should occur between Mar.-June, 2021 to Aug.-Nov., 2021. Quite some time yet.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 5, 2020 0:22:37 GMT
A Comparison of Two High-Low Solar Transitions: SC19-20 and SC23-24Chart 2 shows the month-to-month solar transition using sunspot tallies for 12 Solar Cycles from SC13 (start 1890) to SC24 (start 2008). These cycles lengths range from 119 months (SC22) to 148 months (SC23). Kickoff to the first peak is steep, usually beginning about month 21. The two prominent exceptions are SC13, which started 8 months earlier, and SC24, which started 5 months later than the normal. It is obvious that the SC24 sunspot transition is the lowest in the 12-cycle series. The 7-cycle 20th century grand maximum consists of two high periods: SC17 - SC19 and SC21 - SC23 separated by one low Cycle, SC20 at the end of the first half and a second low, SC24 at the end of the second.. Flux totals slope upward across the first half and downward across the second half. Chart 2 shows the monthly sunspot transition for the two halves. It is apparent that the second half is characterized by much greater variance than the first half. Part of this may be due to more sunspots being counted in recent years. It seems unlikely that this would account for the total difference in variance. There is great difference in opinion as to the strength of up coming solar cycle 25. Some believe it will be higher ... some lower. The "easy" concensus forecast is that it will be "the same". Solar cycle 20 was followed by a much higher cycle ... the first of the second half of the 20th century grand maximum. Chart 1 shows that SC20 and SC24 opened with about the same number of sunspots, but they ended with much different values ... SC24 being much lower. This level is, of course, the level at which SC25 will start. In fact, it may have already started given the propensity of recent sunspots in the sun's southern hemisphere. Also noting that SC24 made its initial sharp jump about 5 months later than the normal across cycles. This first initial jump would normally occur about 15 to 20 months into the cycle. If SC25 began between Dec. 2019 and Mar. 2020, the "fire up" should occur between Mar.-June, 2021 to Aug.-Nov., 2021. Quite some time yet. I'll speak to the board and discuss your pay rise again. Excellent stuff, Missouriboy.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 5, 2020 3:50:10 GMT
Shall I file that under customs of OZ? no a couple of yrs from now when the shit hit's the fan .. i'll just give the Irish side of the family a shout .. there like magic things appear or disappear.. a couple of sa80's for $2k .. then i have the dads side .. yorkies but they like pistols And here I thought you people were all disarmed. I stand corrected.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 5, 2020 3:53:51 GMT
There is great difference in opinion as to the strength of up coming solar cycle 25. Some believe it will be higher ... some lower. The "easy" concensus forecast is that it will be "the same". As I recall NASA believes it will be low. Only the braver ones. The standard science bureaucrats are sitting tight at no opinion ... mouths wide shut. I give the brave ones credit for going out on a limb, without a descent into wokeness. But the agency has been veeeery quiet about it. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 5, 2020 13:34:39 GMT
As I recall NASA believes it will be low. Only the braver ones. The standard science bureaucrats are sitting tight at no opinion ... mouths wide shut. I give the brave ones credit for going out on a limb, without a descent into wokeness. But the agency has been veeeery quiet about it. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.This battle has been waging for some time in SC23/SC24 minimum a NASA web page appeared with the forecast that 24 and 25 were probably going to be low. It was 'un'published within a week. Since then occasional low forecasts slip out but the NASA thought police seem to get them within a few weeks. Some of them forecasted a long low cycle. I must admit those that just look at the solar internals are missing the plot. The solar internals are driven by the path and rotation of the Sun and they are themselves driven by the chaotic interactions of the planets and their mutual gravitation (yes I know bary). It is like modeling a cup of coffee being stirred and ignoring the input from the spoon.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 5, 2020 18:20:15 GMT
Only the braver ones. The standard science bureaucrats are sitting tight at no opinion ... mouths wide shut. I give the brave ones credit for going out on a limb, without a descent into wokeness. But the agency has been veeeery quiet about it. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.This battle has been waging for some time in SC23/SC24 minimum a NASA web page appeared with the forecast that 24 and 25 were probably going to be low. It was 'un'published within a week. Since then occasional low forecasts slip out but the NASA thought police seem to get them within a few weeks. Some of them forecasted a long low cycle. I must admit those that just look at the solar internals are missing the plot. The solar internals are driven by the path and rotation of the Sun and they are themselves driven by the chaotic interactions of the planets and their mutual gravitation (yes I know bary). It is like modeling a cup of coffee being stirred and ignoring the input from the spoon. They are hoping to retire before their sleaze hits the fan.
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