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Post by acidohm on Jun 11, 2020 15:54:34 GMT
Things are changing. Only one spotless day so far this month. Flux is up, but not dramatically. Don't know how many of these small spots are cycle 25. Wiggle watching proceeds apace, as does GDS. Pretty much all of them going on latitude??
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 11, 2020 17:33:06 GMT
Things are changing. Only one spotless day so far this month. Flux is up, but not dramatically. Don't know how many of these small spots are cycle 25. Wiggle watching proceeds apace, as does GDS. Pretty much all of them going on latitude?? SOI at longpaddock seems to be backing off for now ... but it's eastern edge is anchored at Tahiti (long. 149 W), which is the eastern boundary of the Nino 4 region. So Region 4 ENSO is still positive, but eastward is becoming more negative. That cold wheel is rotating out of the southeast Pacific, which seems typical if you look back at same time 2010. Image link ... www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.6.10.2010.gifIn 2010, the North Atlantic was warmer and the North Pacific was colder. The AMO is heading into its cold phase. Sorry Europe. The PDO ultimately follows ENSO ... with a lag ... but that warmer water will depart (and it has been in the process). Question is, if the timing is right, will this Nina be deep and long ... like SC22, SC23 and SC24? Or will it be more moderate?
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Post by Ratty on Jun 11, 2020 22:11:32 GMT
Useful to look at both? [ Snip ]
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 12, 2020 16:15:41 GMT
PDO, which lags ENSO.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 12, 2020 16:40:00 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 12, 2020 17:06:29 GMT
Except that to get the precision they have to make every solar cycle last 11 years. If they are all the same length then peaks and cycle transitions happen at the same time - not sure what this proves.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 12, 2020 21:52:09 GMT
Do you have a chart that shows the next 40 years? I'd like to plan ahead With the AMO going into its negative phase, and ENSO trending downward with another small cycle, and the PDO following ENSO, I would guess there should be many good ski years in your future. That and $0.50 will get you a cup of coffee ... assuming the Commies will let you buy one.
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 23, 2020 10:10:44 GMT
Looks like someone agreeing with Astromet "Gerry Pease: Solar outlook
From looking at the 30 day Wolf number and NOAA sunspot number it looks like Solar Minimum could have been in December, 2019 but possibly as late as mid-March this year. "tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/06/22/gerry-pease-solar-outlook/Then a series of annotated barycentric diagrams..... From the comments
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Post by Ratty on Jun 23, 2020 10:50:28 GMT
I ask you:
Who is Barry Centric and why is he interfering in settled science?
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Post by acidohm on Jun 23, 2020 14:12:38 GMT
I ask you: Who is Barry Centric and why is he interfering in settled science? And why do his arguments always circle around a central theme??
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 23, 2020 15:06:04 GMT
I ask you: Who is Barry Centric and why is he interfering in settled science? And why do his arguments always circle around a central theme?? Models are like a box of chocolates. Ya just never know what you're gonna get. (stolen and modified ... like most models)
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Post by flearider on Jun 23, 2020 22:36:06 GMT
i'll be 62 in 28 .. ffs way to old to do much (as most of my fam died before this )but the kids are well trained .. just have to source them some pow pow .. and leaving them a solid house they might make it ... i have tried to get them to move to auz
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 23, 2020 23:16:30 GMT
I ask you: Who is Barry Centric and why is he interfering in settled science? And why do his arguments always circle around a central theme?? His stage name is Oxy Moron.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 23, 2020 23:51:29 GMT
i'll be 62 in 28 .. ffs way to old to do much (as most of my fam died before this )but the kids are well trained .. just have to source them some pow pow .. and leaving them a solid house they might make it ... i have tried to get them to move to auz Well, at least the fishing should hold up? Particularly with the EU excluded from UK waters.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 24, 2020 0:39:08 GMT
i'll be 62 in 28 .. ffs way to old to do much (as most of my fam died before this )but the kids are well trained .. just have to source them some pow pow .. and leaving them a solid house they might make it ... i have tried to get them to move to auz For a small fee, Flea, I may be able to get them past customs.
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