Post by nautonnier on Oct 29, 2018 7:49:10 GMT
I think wiggle watchers have got to be cautious about spurious correlation. In the same way as the anti-wiggle watchers -- we can't see any correlation -- also need to be cautious.
I often feel that we are watching people measure the incorrect metric by using invalid proxies for that metric which are chosen purely by satisfying a confirmation bias. Similarly, I see people choosing an incorrect metric and use invalid proxies for the metric that show anticorrelation again chosen by confirmation bias because of the anticorrelation. Atmospheric temperature and proxies for it are being used as a proxy for heat content of the Earth system. Yet the atmosphere has very very small heat content - the top 6 to 10 meters of the ocean surface holds more energy than the entire atmosphere but is not included in the proxies for Earth system heat content. Ocean cycles we are told can be thousands of years and thus apply considerable inertia to change and momentum for change. Claiming that we cannot match a Solar cycle directly with atmospheric temperature changes and claiming that the lack of correlation means that the Sun has no effect shows (deliberate?) ignorance of the multiplicity of cycles longer than the Hale cycles.
I often feel that we are watching people measure the incorrect metric by using invalid proxies for that metric which are chosen purely by satisfying a confirmation bias. Similarly, I see people choosing an incorrect metric and use invalid proxies for the metric that show anticorrelation again chosen by confirmation bias because of the anticorrelation. Atmospheric temperature and proxies for it are being used as a proxy for heat content of the Earth system. Yet the atmosphere has very very small heat content - the top 6 to 10 meters of the ocean surface holds more energy than the entire atmosphere but is not included in the proxies for Earth system heat content. Ocean cycles we are told can be thousands of years and thus apply considerable inertia to change and momentum for change. Claiming that we cannot match a Solar cycle directly with atmospheric temperature changes and claiming that the lack of correlation means that the Sun has no effect shows (deliberate?) ignorance of the multiplicity of cycles longer than the Hale cycles.
