bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jul 6, 2012 18:36:26 GMT
any M/R^2 mechanism seems unlikely. That would just leave us Jupiter and Saturn, and I can´t find any good supercycle. And we should have seen a clear ~60 year cycle in solar activity.
So that leaves us the center of mass idea, and the MxR mechanism, where Uranus and Neptun play an important role. This gives us the obvious ~172 year cycle of Uranus-Neptun conjunctions.
But is it possible to find any bigger cycle? The variation in quality of Jupiter-Saturn-Uranus-Neptun allignment?
And is the variation big enough to be a plausible cause of millennia-cycles?
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jul 7, 2012 13:49:49 GMT
it is definitly about barycentre, and the effect of Uranus-Neptun
The solar system swings between the state of a three-body system and a two-body system.
The two-body system is at Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions and oppositions, where the barycentre is far or close to the solar centre... but not changing much. This state does not favor high sunspot-activity.
The three-body system is between Jupiter-Saturn allignments, when the system is at a triangle. In this condition the barycentre is moving quickly either away or into the centre of the sun. This state favors high sunspot activity.
I guess there must be a spin-orbit coupling going on, where the moving barycentre causes change in the solar dynamo or internal rotation.
This is however not the full story, because we also have the two tidal cycles, that affect whether the sunspot cycle occurs in the two- or three-body condition.
I think it can be viewed as: the tidal-cycles opens a window to the solar dynamo. If the dynamo is dynamic/changing, we see many sunspots. If the dynamo is stable, we dont see many sunspots.
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So far it is simple... but then we add Uranus-Neptun. What do they do?
There must be some kind of grand cycle that I havent quite figured out yet, but on the ~170 year scale the mechanism is:
Uranus-Neptun cancels out Saturn (when Saturn is opposed to Uranus-Neptun).
This is the pattern that Geoff Sharp has discovered.
So when this happens, it prevents the three-body system that is requried to make the dynamo dynamic, seen as sunspots.
So when Jupiter-Saturn are at ~90 degrees, the system is still seen as a two-body system because Uranus-Neptun are opposing Saturn and cancelling it.
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But there are bigger cycles going on. Because in some periods UrNe is cancelling Saturn when Saturn is conjunct/opposed to Jupiter. So there is no effect... a two-body system will still be a two body system.
This was the condition around year 1100, and the Medieval maximum (with UrNe opposed Saturn at JuSa-conjunctions).
It will also be the condition in the next centuries, with UrNe opposed Saturn when JuSa-opposed. So we should have another grand maximum ahead (rising trend continues).
Still there is some puzzle missing here. The above would suggest a supercycle of around 1000 years (havent found the exact number yet). But maybe the effect of Saturn being cancelled at JuSa conjunctions/oppositions is not the same? If so the real supercycle is around 2000 years (or a bit more)
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I think either 6x172=1032 years (and 2064 years for the full cycle)
Or 7x172=1204 years (and 2408 years for the full cycle)
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 7, 2012 14:05:01 GMT
bigbud: Thank you for posting this.
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Post by williams on Jul 11, 2012 9:58:05 GMT
thanks, just fine... she is 3 years now  Interesting link... Mars however is not part of this... I have pretty much figured out the 11-year sunspot cycle, but have not seen the light regarding the bigger cycles and grand minima/maximum. The Jupiter-Saturn cycle is giving us a hint about something, and I think Uranus/Neptun still can be part of this. I was hoping to see some convincing patterns doing some simplyfied work. However I dont know whether I have found anything good yet Do anyone have data for barycentre distance to solar surface for +/- some thousand years? I guess weekly data should be fine, or monthly also can do. If you want the data for barycentre distance to solar here's the data climatologie.pagesperso-orange.fr/Barycenter.xls that I had calculated to make my site la.climatologie.free.fr/soleil/soleil1.htm#cause and verify the influence of gaseous planets on the Sun about Suess or Vries Cycle. I'm not English so sometimes I can hardly express. Williams |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jul 11, 2012 17:48:30 GMT
thanks williams I allready am using your spreadsheet. Have you updated the barycenter calculations? I have annual data up to year 2065 I think. Monthly data for the years 2000BC to 3000AD would have been nice... ------------ btw I have to rethink all my hypothesis First the Jupiter-Saturn cycle is very dominant secondly I have to see the tidal cycles as one. And seems like I have mis-interpreted the tidal effect. Tides might stimulate SSN and not the other way. back to scratch for the n´t time... but getting closer to the target after every attempt |
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Post by williams on Jul 11, 2012 20:00:00 GMT
thanks williams I allready am using your spreadsheet. Have you updated the barycenter calculations? I have annual data up to year 2065 I think. Monthly data for the years 2000BC to 3000AD would have been nice... ------------ btw I have to rethink all my hypothesis First the Jupiter-Saturn cycle is very dominant secondly I have to see the tidal cycles as one. And seems like I have mis-interpreted the tidal effect. Tides might stimulate SSN and not the other way. back to scratch for the n´t time... but getting closer to the target after every attempt If you want I have the monthly distance of the sun-barycenter but of the year 200AD to 2356AD. But if we find the data polar coordinates (latitude / longitude in Radian and distance in U.A.) of 4 gaseous planets of the years 2000BC to 3000AD then I would me possible to calculate the monthly distance of the sun-barycenter and to give it to you.  Williams |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jul 11, 2012 20:41:26 GMT
right williams, someone must do that job |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Jul 12, 2012 9:15:29 GMT
new clarity gained The relative position of Jupiter-Saturn in the raising phase of the solar cycle (from minimum to maximum) decides the strengt of the cycle. Favorable is a minimum some years after a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction/opposition, which means that the raising phase of the solar cycle occurs when Jupiter-Saturn are at 90 degrees. The timing of the solar cycle stays is this favorable phase for some time, doing short cycles ~10-11 years. At some point however the minimum is pushed so late (~4 years or less to a JuSa-conjuntion/opposition), that the solar maximum cannot occur before the JuSa con/opp, and sunspot activity ios depressed the 0-1,6 years after a JuSa con/opp... so the maximum will be at least ~1,6 years after the JuSa con/opp. This creates a long cycle, and the solar cycles falls out of phase with JuSa. This out-of-phase condition lasts for a couple solar cycles, producing weak cycles, until favorable phase is gained. Another factor also occurs near Uranus-Neptun conjunctions/oppositions, where the effect of JuSa is weakened. --------------- The other part of the story is the tidal cycle, that is better understood when divided into MeJu and VeEaJu. These cycles decide the timing of the solar cycle, and create borders in time where the solar cycle has to occur within. Tides stimulate sunspots, and the intensity is dependant on the JuSa-angle. Normally it is the MeJu-cycle that produces the start of a solar cycle, and there are two favorable time-intervals on each side of the Jupiter perihelion. And the VeEaJu-cycle is normally trailing, and producing the solar maximum. Each ~170 years however the VeEaJu-cycle is ahead of the MeJu-cycle (they are "wandering" because of the different cycle length of ~12 and ~11 years). So the result are ~2 solar cycles that are ignited by the VeEaJu-cycle (and not at the two favorable MeJu-points). And the solar maximum is produced by the MeJu-cycle. --------- Also important is that the JuSa-cycle of ~10 years has an unfavorable condition relative to the dominat 11 year tidal cycle every ~96 years, that favor a period of weak solar cycles. ---------- it is all a piece of cake  |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 15, 2012 20:17:27 GMT
had a tidal peak almost a month ago, that would favor rising flux
last tidal peak was near the Venus-transit
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andor
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Post by andor on Oct 16, 2012 12:37:59 GMT
Yes but whatever the reasons, it appears we have peaked cycle 24 and therefore going down and entering something like the Dalton or Maunder. This is serious because we are not in the 17th century anymore and the effect on earth and it's population would be disasterous!
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 16, 2012 17:57:00 GMT
that is not my forecast SC24 topping around January 2014 And SC25 will also be long and weak, so we are in some kind of minimum |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 19, 2012 10:00:40 GMT
had a tidal peak almost a month ago, that would favor rising flux last tidal peak was near the Venus-transit this latest tidal peak is a weak one, so might not spark very much sunspot-activity The May 2012-peak was a strong one. The next really strong tidal peak is January 2014, which I think will produce the SC24-maximum (in the months around/after) Some pretty strong peaks in the first half of 2013 too |
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 19, 2012 10:19:25 GMT
solar flux and tidal peaks Attachments:
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 19, 2012 11:14:46 GMT
this is solar flux and the tidal-peaks shiftet timewise to show the correlation Sometimes it works, somtimes not It is a simplified model, and the Sun is a messy place Attachments:
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bigbud
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Post by bigbud on Oct 21, 2012 8:29:38 GMT
last days of higher solar activity fits with the recent tidal peak. The tidal peak suggest a local maximum around Nov 4, but is no precise tool. So I guess that this rotation or the next will be a local high, like early July was the high after the May tidal peak BB |
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