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Post by sigurdur on Aug 18, 2009 16:01:35 GMT
Let's establish something when it comes to ice. 30 years a trend does not make. That also applies to climate.
When one is looking at climate, centuries are what makes a trend. Anything less than that time frame is weather.
We are in a warming trend. Does our current level of co2 help keep that trend alive? Very possibly, but certainly not a certainty of any kind. Historical proxy temps and proxy co2 have shown that the temp does fall dramatically even WITH high levels of co2. And temp does rise dramatically, even with LOW levels of co2. I dare anyone to dispute this.
Just from that information alone one needs to take AGW as a low confidence science. Anyone who thinks otherwise does not understand climate at all, but are trying to predict weather. And we all know how good that track record is.
We should all be glad that the earth is showing the cycles that have prevailed in the past. For when those cycles are broken, THEN we are in deep do do and haven't a clue of what to expect. Given the past tho, it would infer that we could expect a radical cooling, as that has been the predominant feature of earth in the past.
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Post by msphar on Aug 18, 2009 17:12:04 GMT
Debate over cycles is not my thing. Watching the Arctic is interesting. A half dozen random boats are attempting to transit the Southern portion of the Northwest Passage. Some are doing better than others. One has called for icebreaker assistance. Others have been trapped by ice flows but remain mobile to a degree. It will be a difficult task this year. In 3 or 4 weeks the window of opportunity will begin to shut down. Those that made it through will be released, the others will have to wait a year and cope with their entrapment. I wish them all luck. I have no desire to match their adventure. Sun spotlessness continues unabated this month. We are now approaching the 700 day mark. Soon enough this transition will surpass to the fourth rank in spotlessness in the historical record. If this is a harbinger of cooling, then these boats and any foolish enough to follow in their wake will be in need of all the luck they can avail themselves with.
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Post by glc on Aug 18, 2009 22:43:38 GMT
During the past 100 years, Arctic temperature rose by more than 1.6 degrees from 1920 to 1940 and then fell equally drastically from 1940 to the mid-1970s. During this latter period, sea ice increased (go figure). Hilariously enough, the satellite record of sea ice started in 1979, when multi-year ice was great, and ocean heat content was low.
Actually when I pointed a number of these facts out before I was largely ignored - pobably because I concluded that the data suggested an ocean cycle rather than a solar cycle pattern. Just one or two other points. Although a strong cyclical pattern exists, there is also an underlying warming trend. If there weren't the most recent decade would have similar temepratures to the 1940s.
Finally, I'm interested to know where you got the 1.6 deg warming figure from. I'm not querying it - it seems about right - just wondering about the source.
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Post by woodstove on Aug 18, 2009 22:53:30 GMT
The source is Akasofu. I've provided links to at least one of his papers with the data previously. You can also find the data graphed in The Deniers by Lawrence Solomon.
Please explain why the melt in the Arctic during 2007 is more significant than the all-time record maximum for Antarctic sea ice that same year.
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Post by walterdnes on Aug 19, 2009 4:45:52 GMT
NSIDC admits the obvious in its August 18 article at nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.htmlI'm almost disappointed. I was expecting... - accelerating decline
- thin mono-molecular layer of arctic ice resulting in record low volume
- record low amount of multi-year (greater than three-year old) ice
- we're doomed. Doomed I tell ya, doomed.
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 19, 2009 11:47:56 GMT
Wow! With all the references to NSIDC just noticed the Antarctic ice. Its now almost 500,000 sq.km. greater than 1979 - 2000 median levels Thats almost the size of France!
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Post by jimcripwell on Aug 19, 2009 12:47:16 GMT
The latest from the yatch Fiona. www.yachtfiona.com/fnn.htm"Last night, 16 Aug, we got hopelessly trapped by the ice. Despite a favorable ice report we encountered 8/10ths ice, with many old, i.e. large, bergs. We spent the night tied to one of them but had to leave this morning when another 'berg collided with us and tipped Fiona over. We got away but the space around us is shrinking. I called the Canadian Coast Guard at noon and they are sending an icebreaker, due here tomorrow. We are NOT in immediate danger. Watch this space for developments." Canada has very limited resources for operating in ice conditions in the Arctic. I resent these idiots being where they should not be in the first place, just doing a PR stunt. I gather these are six of them altogether. Has anyone any idea how the other 5 are faring?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 19, 2009 12:57:25 GMT
The latest from the yatch Fiona. www.yachtfiona.com/fnn.htm"Last night, 16 Aug, we got hopelessly trapped by the ice. Despite a favorable ice report we encountered 8/10ths ice, with many old, i.e. large, bergs. We spent the night tied to one of them but had to leave this morning when another 'berg collided with us and tipped Fiona over. We got away but the space around us is shrinking. I called the Canadian Coast Guard at noon and they are sending an icebreaker, due here tomorrow. We are NOT in immediate danger. Watch this space for developments." Canada has very limited resources for operating in ice conditions in the Arctic. I resent these idiots being where they should not be in the first place, just doing a PR stunt. I gather these are six of them altogether. Has anyone any idea how the other 5 are faring? By their actions, they show just how stupid this whole AGW thing is. They get the mindset that they will not encounter any danger being we are warming and therefore, there can't be any danger as there will be no to very limited ice. Talk about stupid stunts is all I can say. I hope they are rescued safely, but that they also have to pay dearly for that ice breaker. Such nonsense.
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Post by dopeydog on Aug 19, 2009 13:10:21 GMT
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Post by radiant on Aug 19, 2009 13:52:33 GMT
The latest from the yatch Fiona. www.yachtfiona.com/fnn.htm"Last night, 16 Aug, we got hopelessly trapped by the ice. Despite a favorable ice report we encountered 8/10ths ice, with many old, i.e. large, bergs. We spent the night tied to one of them but had to leave this morning when another 'berg collided with us and tipped Fiona over. We got away but the space around us is shrinking. I called the Canadian Coast Guard at noon and they are sending an icebreaker, due here tomorrow. We are NOT in immediate danger. Watch this space for developments." Canada has very limited resources for operating in ice conditions in the Arctic. I resent these idiots being where they should not be in the first place, just doing a PR stunt. I gather these are six of them altogether. Has anyone any idea how the other 5 are faring? Well these guys: www.aroundtheamericas.org/story/Crew+Log+66+-+At+Sea+60+02N%2C+105+11W+Are reporting that 3 boats are trapped and Fiona has a picture of the boat in difficulty on a shore at 45 degrees and they are in trouble. But they dont seem to have noticed the cars in the background where fiona was caught out at Resolute as Fleur Australe with 15mm of steel reinforcing slipped away as Resolute was iced in about a week ago. Meanwhile fiona is reporting all boats will probably get to Gjoa - pronounced Joe-ah we learn. I wonder though if all boats have guns for dealing with bears - even if just to scare them away when they charge? Supposedly a well fed polar bear is fairly ok to be near and about the most savage creature on earth when not. The French man in the picture with the 15mm steel reckons that the NW passage is a serious buisiness and not for a boat with TV like Bagan who think of it as a regatta. Meanwhile he has a two year old child on board Quite a competition going on amongst these guys! The Brits will probably walk out and have to confess to eating the local wildlife in the process.
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Post by norpag on Aug 19, 2009 14:36:06 GMT
The Fleur Australe got to Cambridge Bay and so at least one boat will almost certainly make the East - West pasage this year.
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Post by bluecon on Aug 19, 2009 14:42:22 GMT
The boats follow the icebreakers through the passage. Touch and go if these other boats will make it.
The polar bears will treat a human just as another meal. It was and likely still is law that you must carry a gun when in the far Canadian North. Amundsen was badly mauled by a polar bear and many others.
Gjoa is named after Amundsen's boat and where he spent the Winters in the Arctic during his passage.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 19, 2009 15:04:58 GMT
The boats follow the icebreakers through the passage. Touch and go if these other boats will make it. The polar bears will treat a human just as another meal. It was and likely still is law that you must carry a gun when in the far Canadian North. Amundsen was badly mauled by a polar bear and many others. Gjoa is named after Amundsen's boat and where he spent the Winters in the Arctic during his passage. I get the feeling that the reports from and of the Fleur Australe will conveniently forget the icebreaker making the passage navigable for them. The headlines will be ' Arctic melt allows yacht to follow the NW passage" What I find interesting is if the AGW claims of melting were true they would not NEED to spin the news stories. So in some ways this spin appears to show the weakness of their case.
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Post by bluecon on Aug 19, 2009 17:10:20 GMT
At this point the AGW idea only lives due to the propoganda from the Mainstream media. The media really has become an arm of the leftwing governments. The average person still thinks the world is going to burn up.
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Post by jimcripwell on Aug 19, 2009 18:15:08 GMT
Let me put my 2 cents worth on the fate of the 6 yatchs. I hope all 6 get smashed to smithereens. It would be a pity if there were casualties, but I would not shed any tears if there were. People who play with fire, can get burned.
Maybe if some serious damage gets done, future idiots will think twice before causing the Canadian Coast Guard to take actions that ought to be completely unnecessary.
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