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Post by nautonnier on Sept 1, 2019 20:42:40 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Sept 1, 2019 21:11:54 GMT
Lots of precipitation over florida ahead of main hurricane mass??
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Post by acidohm on Sept 2, 2019 8:48:10 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 2, 2019 15:56:23 GMT
There are several different ideas but all are based on the strength of steering from the Bermuda high which makes it a crap shoot. However, there are other ensembles that apart from a couple of outliers show what the National Hurricane Center is also forecasting No hurricanes are predictable fluid flows are two chaotic. Then there is the effect of shallow water, and coastline
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 2, 2019 19:38:51 GMT
Marsh Harbour destroyed after Hurricane Dorian passes through
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 3, 2019 0:23:04 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 3, 2019 0:35:36 GMT
Well Dorian's path is projected to be slightly East of the initially projected path. Considering the strength and size of the behemoth this is a good thing but the East coast of Florida is on the edge of hurricane force winds still. Dorian is going to grind its way along the Gulf Stream for the next 5 - 6 days; the resultant ocean cooling may be a factor in an early start to winter in North West Europe. I can probably turn my sprinklers off too
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 3, 2019 2:21:35 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 3, 2019 2:25:24 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 3, 2019 2:29:01 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 3, 2019 2:34:41 GMT
Storm Surge on Grand Bahama 9/2/19 Very calmly delivered given the apparent circumstances.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 3, 2019 10:18:52 GMT
I really do not know how the Bahamas will recover - the mess will make Puerto Rico look like an upset lawn chair. And the storm is STILL over the Bahamas. All along the Florida East coast people have been waiting with the storm perpetually a day or so out and it will be really destructive and could be anywhere in the probability cone/forecast error cone......yes it is still a day or so out a week later. A real problem for mandatory evacuees living in 'shelters' which are at most expected to be used for 2 days or so some have been in them for over a week and the storm is still not here. Ready! Get set... www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 5, 2019 13:23:52 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Sept 5, 2019 15:08:54 GMT
Encouraging after the pain Pielke has been subjected to by his fellow scientists, politicians and the media. He must feel that the time is now right to speak up again. What has happened?
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2019 16:59:46 GMT
Encouraging after the pain Pielke has been subjected to by his fellow scientists, politicians and the media. He must feel that the time is now right to speak up again. What has happened? Hope springs eternal.
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