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Post by acidohm on Sept 28, 2019 6:35:22 GMT
No one is mentioning Lorenzo??
While records that far east are debatable, its still quite an outlier.
Certainly its going to interact interestingly with N Europe systems, probably creating zonal patterns where meridional were poised to prevail.
Runs similar with Ophelia in 2017 which was also unusual in itself.....
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 28, 2019 10:58:34 GMT
No one is mentioning Lorenzo?? While records that far east are debatable, its still quite an outlier. Certainly its going to interact interestingly with N Europe systems, probably creating zonal patterns where meridional were poised to prevail. Runs similar with Ophelia in 2017 which was also unusual in itself..... It is interesting to see the system still being called a 'hurricane' way up at 51N30W where is Michael Fish when you need him I drove to work from Reading to Farnborough the morning after Michael Fish's broadcast through fallen uprooted trees and (for Acid) a friend said he woke up to find that instead of a Ford XR2 he had two XR1s Two things of interest: * The met forecasters in the USA tend to call any convective storm that does not affect the US a 'Fish Storm' -- very appropriate in the 1987 case * Of course under strict interpretation Michael Fish was right a storm that has lost its convective aspects is no longer a convective storm and is therefore not a hurricane in the purist application of the term. Although it may have 'hurricane force winds' (this was a problem with 'super storm' [ cough] Sandy as the hurricane center ceased forecasting it as a hurricane even though it was hurricane strength).
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 28, 2019 13:57:30 GMT
From Wiki regarding 1987 ... Noting that the 1976 and 1987 events were at a similar location in the solar cycle. Big, loopy highways from the tropics to Mother England?
Climatological context
It is claimed this storm was the worst since the Great Storm of 1703,[10][39][40] which has been challenged as a myth.[4][5] Storms of this strength regularly form over the North Atlantic, where they typically track to the north of Scotland. Storms of such a strength have a return period of 30 to 40 years.[6] The unusual aspect of the storm was that it struck the densely populated southeast of England.[4][5] That winds in the South East had return periods of 1 in 200 years does not mean the winds of this strength occur once every 200 years, but that the winds have a 0.5% probability of happening in a given year.[Note 1]
Following this storm 1.3 million incidents of damage were reported, which is only exceeded by the Gale of January 1976 where destruction covered a wider area of the UK, with 1.5 million incidents of damage reported.[1] The Burns' Day storm hit the United Kingdom in January 1990, less than three years later and with comparable intensity.
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Post by duwayne on Sept 28, 2019 14:27:07 GMT
Glen stop waving it might just not do a hard turn to the West.... And if it does, it runs smack into enough shear to tear it apart. On another matter, for despite all the shrieking in the press about the "unprecedent" number of storms over the past several weeks, world wide ACE is at 103% for the year. Even Atlantic ACE, currently at 130%, isn't much to write home about. www.policlimate.com/tropical/ Phydeaux, I like it when posters make predictions. And it's especially good when they are right.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 28, 2019 21:19:46 GMT
[quote author=" nautonnier" * Of course under strict interpretation Michael Fish was right a storm that has lost its convective aspects is no longer a convective storm and is therefore not a hurricane in the purist application of the term. Although it may have 'hurricane force winds' (this was a problem with 'super storm' [ cough] Sandy as the hurricane center ceased forecasting it as a hurricane even though it was hurricane strength).[/quote] I assume all definitions were ironed out during Ophelia as much was said at the time! I benefited from the '87 as it felled portions of the forest behind where i lived at the time. Watching the process of opened wood going through various stages of competition for light/resources till sapling growth took off....i must revisit as i assume maturing trees must have established by now. I remember being amazed how trees felled in a domino effect, trees that otherwise would have survived the gale were forced down by those that couldn't...
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 2, 2019 18:55:56 GMT
[quote author=" nautonnier" * Of course under strict interpretation Michael Fish was right a storm that has lost its convective aspects is no longer a convective storm and is therefore not a hurricane in the purist application of the term. Although it may have 'hurricane force winds' (this was a problem with 'super storm' [ cough] Sandy as the hurricane center ceased forecasting it as a hurricane even though it was hurricane strength). I assume all definitions were ironed out during Ophelia as much was said at the time! I benefited from the '87 as it felled portions of the forest behind where i lived at the time. Watching the process of opened wood going through various stages of competition for light/resources till sapling growth took off....i must revisit as i assume maturing trees must have established by now. I remember being amazed how trees felled in a domino effect, trees that otherwise would have survived the gale were forced down by those that couldn't...[/quote] Yes domino effect of wind on trees mainly conifers is often avoided by planting deciduous trees around their perimeter as they tend to survive strong winds better.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 2, 2019 18:57:58 GMT
Hmmmmmmmm
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 2, 2019 18:59:09 GMT
Lorenzo's after you Acid -- lay in some crates of Laphroaig
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Post by acidohm on Oct 2, 2019 19:31:10 GMT
Lorenzo's after you Acid -- lay in some crates of Laphroaig Im guessing i shouldnt use a ladder friday! Hard to gauge how windy/wet it'll be, usually hyped up storms seem underwhelming in reality. What we probably need is a prominent meteorologist to go on national tv and state "no hurricane is coming" 😉
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Post by Ratty on Oct 2, 2019 23:39:21 GMT
Lorenzo's after you Acid -- lay in some crates of Laphroaig Be very afraid, Acid: I see a hockey stick.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 3, 2019 0:42:21 GMT
Reverse hockey stick. Beware Gorey Manns falling from the sky.
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Post by Ratty on Oct 3, 2019 0:57:30 GMT
Reverse hockey stick. Beware Gorey Manns falling from the sky. Gorey Manns? Sounds like a borough in Midsomer.
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 3, 2019 13:52:12 GMT
There is ample literature on the effects that a low solar cycle has on regional climate/weather. The jet drives this, the jet responds to variations in the output of the sun. Another item of interest. Svensmark theory about cosmic rays. There is mounting evidence that his theory requires closer examination. Speaking of cosmic rays. They are about to peak again and break the record set in 2009-2010. From spaceweather.com
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 3, 2019 14:41:26 GMT
There is ample literature on the effects that a low solar cycle has on regional climate/weather. The jet drives this, the jet responds to variations in the output of the sun. Another item of interest. Svensmark theory about cosmic rays. There is mounting evidence that his theory requires closer examination. Speaking of cosmic rays. They are about to peak again and break the record set in 2009-2010. From spaceweather.com And we all remember the winter of 2009/2010
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 8, 2019 14:45:17 GMT
I looked up and there was a giant yellow cross....
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