ENSO-2020

[missouriboy]

I want to know what created that cold response in the Atlantic from the Caribbean to NW Europe.

[nautonnier]

Feb 11, 2020 16:29:23 GMT @codewhacker said:

Feb 11, 2020 11:32:07 GMT nautonnier said:

earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-140.68,9.07,463


I see more heat

I think with the current state people can see what they want to see - its a confirmation bias paradise

[Ratty]

Feb 11, 2020 16:29:23 GMT @codewhacker said:

earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-140.68,9.07,463


I see more heat

#MeToo and that most trusted of sources, the BoM, isn't suggesting a Nina any time soon:

BoM Outlook

However, surface waters in the tropics near to and west of the Date Line are warmer than average, potentially drawing some moisture away from Australia.

Some SSTAs show a different picture than other SSTAs:



... and it's even worse (better?) on alarmist sites (note, no legend):



The continents are black! How hot is that?

[missouriboy]

I like the lavender.  Conveys contrast to the equatorial regions and transition zones very nicely.  That's where the heat is.  But like all Mercator projections it over plays the polar areas.  The dissipation of the NAD seems very distinct.  Kudos to the cartographer.     I don't see that as alarming ... and it could be repeated till the cows come home with little change apparent.

What is the link to the last map?

[Ratty]

Feb 12, 2020 17:06:36 GMT missouriboy said:

I like the lavender.  Conveys contrast to the equatorial regions and transition zones very nicely.  That's where the heat is.  But like all Mercator projections it over plays the polar areas.  The dissipation of the NAD seems very distinct.  Kudos to the cartographer.     I don't see that as alarming ... and it could be repeated till the cows come home with little change apparent.

What is the link to the last map?

Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

[acidohm]

[nautonnier]

And just on time for Astro's forecast....

"La Nina may form in the equatorial Pacific Ocean later this year and, if so, it could have wide-ranging ramifications

NOAA’s CFS v2 computer forecast model is predicting relatively strong La Nina conditions by later this summer (August/September/October); SST anomalies plot courtesy NOAA

*La Nina may form in the equatorial Pacific Ocean later this year and, if so, it could have wide-ranging ramifications*"

wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/28/la-nina-may-form-in-the-equatorial-pacific-ocean-later-this-year-and-if-so-it-could-have-wide-ranging-ramifications/

[acidohm]

Feb 2, 2020 8:03:20 GMT acidohm said:

Dont think I've seen such a strong Nina forecast before....

Just revisiting to verify, was obviously now a bit keen....but rough trend is apparent.

[acidohm]

judithcurry.com/2019/09/01/enso-predictions-based-on-solar-activity/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[missouriboy]

Aug 12, 2020 17:00:50 GMT acidohm said:

judithcurry.com/2019/09/01/enso-predictions-based-on-solar-activity/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Great find.

Paleoclimatic evidence supports a relationship between ENSO and solar forcing.

 Imagine my utter amazement.  


“these problems can only be solved by a joint interdisciplinary effort of open-minded scientists.”

Alas there is a lack.

[nautonnier]

Aug 12, 2020 17:00:50 GMT acidohm said:

judithcurry.com/2019/09/01/enso-predictions-based-on-solar-activity/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

An interesting paper but it is another that assumes the solar activity is somehow self initiating that Solar angular momentum is invented from somewhere. Landscheidt described the epitrochoid motion of the Sun caused by the planets. Astro uses the same approach of orbiting a barycenter. If that is done instead of "well fancy that this cycle is different from the last time..." it would be possible to forecast (as Landscheidt and Astro have) how the next solar cycles will look.

[missouriboy]

Aug 12, 2020 19:20:48 GMT nautonnier said:

Aug 12, 2020 17:00:50 GMT acidohm said:

judithcurry.com/2019/09/01/enso-predictions-based-on-solar-activity/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

An interesting paper but it is another that assumes the solar activity is somehow self initiating that Solar angular momentum is invented from somewhere. Landscheidt described the epitrochoid motion of the Sun caused by the planets. Astro uses the same approach of orbiting a barycenter. If that is done instead of "well fancy that this cycle is different from the last time..." it would be possible to forecast (as Landscheidt and Astro have) how the next solar cycles will look.

And as Zharkova has by slightly different means.

[duwayne]

Aug 12, 2020 17:00:50 GMT acidohm said:

judithcurry.com/2019/09/01/enso-predictions-based-on-solar-activity/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Here’s a chart from the above article. The dark red and dark blue areas show the historical ONI (ENSO) readings for the past several cycles.  The black line is the sunspot readings.



I may reading this chart wrong but it appears the “Model” indicates ENSO (ONI) should be negative during the last couple of years of a Solar Cycle.

Now that Solar Cycle 24 is over, If we look at the last couple of years, the ONI has actually been positive.

origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

We are a few months into the Cycle 25 and the "Model" says the ONI should be moving into strong positive territory. I’ll place my bet on Missouriboy who says it will be negative for a while.

[sigurdur]

iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

[acidohm]

Aug 24, 2020 2:15:11 GMT @codewhacker said:

Old Farmers is predicting a mild Winter for many andI'm not sure how this works into Theo's Global cooling and La Nina forecast for 2021/2022

www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

Probably quite well, he's not forecasting cold till winter 21/22