Summer 2020

[acidohm]

Papers discussing Solar activity effects on blocking

www.researchgate.net/publication/233729987_Solar_modulation_of_Northern_Hemisphere_winter_blocking

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/021001/meta


Something to note here is the tendancy to relate blocking and low solar to winter events.

The difference between winter and summer blocking is the night time jet influence, or in other words, the polar vortex.

This in turn can dramatically be influenced by sudden stratospheric warming, events which are not relevant to summer conditions.

So far during this solar minimum there has been little winter blocking in Europe (especially any that influenced the UK) however there have been 3 stratospheric warmings, tho only one created notable blocking as a 'beast from the east'

I think the US would feel the opposite as blocking has created widespread, cold conditions there....but id let our American friends clarify this.

Summers have, however, experienced substantially blocked and meridional conditions the past 3-4 years.

What you wont get, is a warmist admitting our hot summer days are solar related, nor will you find them predicting a bitterly cold winter.
Neither would i for this year.....tho the US might cuz their winters go cold seemingly too easy, UK/N Europe really needs something special to occur.
If UK/N Europe get extended cold, something is really broken.

[missouriboy]

Jun 21, 2020 6:55:32 GMT acidohm said:

Jun 20, 2020 18:54:09 GMT birder said:

This depicts the situation quite well...


A depression parked itself south of UK and then slowly drifted, while diffusing, North to a position over the UK.

While south of us, it dragged humid air into the country where sunny conditions pushed the moisture up by convection. High pressure to the east held the depression in place with a northward drift for days so, the convection/humid air continued.

As the depression moved over the UK, It rotated a weather front pivoting in the Bristol area, this was thursday to friday. The long duration rain that occurred on these days was the same weather front circling twice over the country!
It eventually lost energy and dissipated.

With the easterly air flow and moisture, if these synoptics occurred in the winter it would possibly have been a major snow event!!

Regarding the jet, its position is determined by the location of high pressure, it must go around these. When conditions are zonal, the jet happily scurries the depression along and gives their trajectory momentum. However the jet will always deviate around a high pressure, hence when HP is in the way of the usual zonal flow it 'blocks' it.

This is what happened last week, except the blocking was to our east so the depression stalled in the proximity of the UK.

None of this has anything to do with 1.5°c increase in temperature but is highly likely a function of low solar activity.

All of the recent hot days in the past 2years were as a result of high pressure placement and the movement of air from one place to another, on very hot days the air moved from very far south to very far north!

I haven't seen lightning mentioned as a metric from any historical weather descriptions, there are however many references to great storms with large hail destroying fields of crops for miles.
Historically people weren't really concerned with measuring weather too much, but recorded events which had notable effects/destruction.
You can be 100% sure a storm which destroyed crops with hail would have been a supercell, probably with tornados.

There are many papers attributing blocking to low solar activity, scientists try to explain current weather by involving arctic ice or the fact that its hot in one place so driving synoptics in another.
It is however, the placement of high pressure which drives the synoptic pattern which results in warm/cold air going where it does.
Under 'normal' zonal conditions high pressure remains north and south if temperate areas allowing depressions to scoot in between, fueled by a jet that has clear passage.
During low solar activity, high pressure extends from the north into the temperate areas blocking the clear passage, as the jet bends around these, it has to travel in northerly/southerly directions and transports airmasses in a similar way.

Lightning requires energy difference and or convection, so where hot and cold airmasses meet, or cold air moving over hot surfaces.
These scenarios are far more likely in blocked, or meridional conditions as more mixing of airmasses occur.
In the UK however, blocking does not guarantee Lightning as can be seen by '18 & '19 which were blocked summers (last year incredibly so as demonstrated by a record-NAO period) where '19 particularly had 2 storms in my area only, whereas we had 5 consecutive days last week.

This is about as good a descriptive narrative as I've ever read.    The genuflective CO2 crowd should be gathered round and coerced to provide a competing narrative detailing the atmospheric stimulus of their favorite driver.  In the background, BLM and Auntie Fa can burn the stage and sacrifice the required goat to entertain the expected crowd.  

[missouriboy]

SIG.  The NWS site (weather.gov) shows all 3 recording stations in your area standing at 5 to 6 F above normal for June.  Is that true?

[sigurdur]

Jun 21, 2020 17:38:47 GMT missouriboy said:

SIG.  The NWS site (weather.gov) shows all 3 recording stations in your area standing at 5 to 6 F above normal for June.  Is that true?

Above? I think they have it backwards.

[sigurdur]

Jun 21, 2020 17:38:47 GMT missouriboy said:

SIG.  The NWS site (weather.gov) shows all 3 recording stations in your area standing at 5 to 6 F above normal for June.  Is that true?

Can you tell me what stations are displaying this? We continue to be wayyyyyyyyyyy behind on GDD. Heck, I have had spuds in the ground for over a month and they are barely up. Normally, I would have 1' tall plants.

[missouriboy]

Jun 21, 2020 18:05:00 GMT sigurdur said:

Jun 21, 2020 17:38:47 GMT missouriboy said:

SIG.  The NWS site (weather.gov) shows all 3 recording stations in your area standing at 5 to 6 F above normal for June.  Is that true?

Can you tell me what stations are displaying this? We continue to be wayyyyyyyyyyy behind on GDD. Heck, I have had spuds in the ground for over a month and they are barely up. Normally, I would have 1' tall plants.

The two Grand Forks stations (main and university) and Fargo.  Here's the page. w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fgf
If you click preliminary climate data, select any of the 3 stations and click archived data for June (or otherwise) you'll get a popup showing the daily and monthly summary.

And it will show you that you are really toasting up there.  

[acidohm]

This is about as good a descriptive narrative as I've ever read.   

That is one of the most valued compliments i have received 😊😊

[Ratty]

Jun 22, 2020 1:41:24 GMT @codewhacker said:

[ Snip ]

Happy Father's Day to all of us.

I get another in September.

[missouriboy]

Jun 22, 2020 1:54:54 GMT Ratty said:

Jun 22, 2020 1:41:24 GMT @codewhacker said:

[ Snip ]

Happy Father's Day to all of us.

I get another in September.

Congratulations!  You're going to be a father again.  

[Ratty]

Jun 22, 2020 4:40:58 GMT @codewhacker said:

? What? Ratty's going to be a father, what?

It's supposed to be a secret .... I haven't told the mother yet.

[missouriboy]

Could be wrong ... but this time of year, that dust plume should be headed further north before heading east.  Cold high pressure from the North?

[sigurdur]

Jun 21, 2020 19:01:07 GMT missouriboy said:

Jun 21, 2020 18:05:00 GMT sigurdur said:

Can you tell me what stations are displaying this? We continue to be wayyyyyyyyyyy behind on GDD. Heck, I have had spuds in the ground for over a month and they are barely up. Normally, I would have 1' tall plants.

The two Grand Forks stations (main and university) and Fargo.  Here's the page. w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fgf
If you click preliminary climate data, select any of the 3 stations and click archived data for June (or otherwise) you'll get a popup showing the daily and monthly summary.

And it will show you that you are really toasting up there.  

ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/get-table.html?ttype=cogdd&station=16&year=2020&d5y=&begin_date=2020-05-01&end_date=2020-06-22


I don't know where all the supposed warmth is.

[sigurdur]

Grand Forks

ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/get-table.html?ttype=cogdd&station=26&year=2020&d5y=&begin_date=2020-05-01&end_date=2020-06-23

[missouriboy]

Jun 24, 2020 11:24:03 GMT sigurdur said:

Jun 21, 2020 19:01:07 GMT missouriboy said:

The two Grand Forks stations (main and university) and Fargo.  Here's the page. w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fgf
If you click preliminary climate data, select any of the 3 stations and click archived data for June (or otherwise) you'll get a popup showing the daily and monthly summary.

And it will show you that you are really toasting up there.  

ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/get-table.html?ttype=cogdd&station=16&year=2020&d5y=&begin_date=2020-05-01&end_date=2020-06-22


I don't know where all the supposed warmth is.

[sixpac]

"I don't know where all the supposed warmth is."

Siberia apparently.

www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/21/arctic-temperature-record-siberia/?fbclid=IwAR3Wu0CeS-s-TV2Yv17QBjfMVs1xIZhm71xIX9b7tmo4Av-F0dSpqhR6qwQ