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Post by missouriboy on Oct 5, 2020 17:16:25 GMT
Is there any long range metric of the Hadley convergence line say over time and is of a resolution fine enough to use it as a climate gauging tool. The world is sitting calmly for the next winter and the ability to state that cool temperature resilience would be advisable could save millions of lives. on the other hand building dams in the Sahara could also be a strategy worth some thought. MB you have used data from 1821 till now yes 200 years is there more out there, its insane that you are doing in your house what the "academic's" should have been pushing through for years. Satellite data is now 45 years long it should start to generate tight metric's that can be grafted on the long range stuff. And all that while you had Corona. REWRITTEN BECAUSE I THOUGHT I'D LOST THE FIRST - and added to. There are other data sets out there that seem to show correlations with ENSO, which seems strongly correlated with solar activity. Academics seem to be interested in paychecks, and paychecks may be correlated in recent years to supporting the dominant scientific paradigm(s). We know what these are. Perhaps little different than the academic requirements at the time of the Inquisition. Literature reviews do reveal obscure science on relationships between specific climate system dynamics and solar activities. If I had a clone, he/it would provide me with my daily briefing. There are records for the South Asian monsoon that go back to 1813. Rough graphs from data that I found seem to show a strong correlation with La Ninas. The Chinese have records that go back to the dynasties on floods on the major river systems ,,, which I don't have. But major floods documented on Wiki show temporal concentrations on the rising limb of solar cycles that may also reflect a correlation with La Ninas ... just like this year. We know that weak solar cycles are dominated by La Ninas and strong solar cycles are dominated by El Ninos. That falls out of the data. There are Nile river records that go back to Pharonic times where major floods may be linked to strong La Ninas and positive IOD events. There may be a La Nina / positive IOD effect on moist airmass movement into East Africa and beyond. If the strength of precipitation patterns we are seeing this year have anything to do with, and are a foretaste of the strength of the currently building La Nina, then the experts may be surprised. Records of historical weather events documented by Marusek in his Chronological Listing of Early Weather Events - The Meat. www.thegwpf.com/james-marusek-a-chronological-listing-of-early-weather-events/Longer-term studies and their resultant data bases provide a macro-level climate framework within which more recent climate periods can be evaluated together with their forcings. One example below. This cycle and the next may or may not be "the Big Kahuna", but given the changes in atmospheric circulation patterns (and associated weather events) we are seeing, and their dramatic increase over the last couple of years, I believe that "we" are going to see "things" that have not been experienced by our lines for many generations back. Just a comparison to a similar time frame at the beginnings of SC 24 does not in my memory yield a multiplicity of events of comparable magnitude. That analytic comparison should be made for the record. Could be that I'm just an old fart whose memory is slipping and whose vision is confounded.  But if not, strap yourselves in. Could be an interesting ride to MAX and beyond. Assuming we are not overrun by the Red Tide rising in our midst.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 7, 2020 22:02:31 GMT
The Med keeps getting hit.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 9, 2020 4:56:47 GMT
The Med keeps getting hit. Alex was a bit of a weird one. Underwent cyclogenesis as it tracked east across Atlantic, met blocking high east europe/Scandinavia and momentum tracked it south to North France. Rather then become a cut off low, it attempted to move to a more usual northern location but had lost momentum, but still blocked slowly moved up over UK. It rained here basically non stop Friday to Sunday, many places had all of octobers rain and more in this period, local to me all flood plains filled. |
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 9, 2020 11:30:53 GMT
The Med keeps getting hit. Alex was a bit of a weird one. Underwent cyclogenesis as it tracked east across Atlantic, met blocking high east europe/Scandinavia and momentum tracked it south to North France. Rather then become a cut off low, it attempted to move to a more usual northern location but had lost momentum, but still blocked slowly moved up over UK. It rained here basically non stop Friday to Sunday, many places had all of octobers rain and more in this period, local to me all flood plains filled.That will be interesting - I used to live near Sindlesham with the river Loddon which regularly flooded around the Mill. Then some bright spark decided to turn what had been a water meadow into a car park and extend the mill buildings into a new hotel. Shortly after that in autumn we had the spectacle of car roofs showing above the water that still thought the car park was a water meadow.  More recently an entire subdivision/housing estate has been built on that flood plain so when Acid you say all flood plains filled ... perhaps there is news of flooding at Winnersh I did find this more recent picture of the car park at Sindlesham Mill ....  The floods arrive with an hour or so warning from Thames water. One wonders what the outcome is for an electric car on charge in floods. How waterproof are the battery compartments and motors? |
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 9, 2020 12:28:27 GMT
I found this interesting. Apparently the correlation between La Nina's and our solar cycle have to do with magnetized activity bands that propagate across the sun during its 22 year magnetic cycle like Rossby waves. While the suns total irradiance may not very that much during the solar cycle these magnetized activity bands do enough to create a strong correlation between them and Nina's here on earth. Certainly proof that our Sun does play more of a role with the climate here on earth than many would like to admit. Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W. Abstract Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time. Publication: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2017, abstract #SH42A-05 Pub Date: December 2017 ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..05L/abstract |
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 9, 2020 14:32:40 GMT
I found this interesting. Apparently the correlation between La Nina's and our solar cycle have to do with magnetized activity bands that propagate across the sun during its 22 year magnetic cycle like Rossby waves. While the suns total irradiance may not very that much during the solar cycle these magnetized activity bands do enough to create a strong correlation between them and Nina's here on earth. Certainly proof that our Sun does play more of a role with the climate here on earth than many would like to admit. Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W. Abstract Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time. Publication: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2017, abstract #SH42A-05 Pub Date: December 2017 ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..05L/abstractThe fact that these magnetic ropes ( www.space.com/27512-sun-storms-formation-solar-physics.html) have 'relative irregularity' implies that there is another (or more than one) driver affecting them. Some random thoughts... Wondering if the LOD changes alter the induced magnetic flux (or perhaps the changes in magnetic flux change the LOD) plus the wandering magnetic poles plus distance from the sun in the varying elliptical orbit will all alter the induced currents and magnetic flux between Sun and Earth. This is another area that is far more complex chaotically interactive than the simplistic diagrams would suggest. It also means that the 'simple' forecasting by meteorologists of El Nino/La Nina is missing a whole lot of input information. It is not as simple as westerlies turning easterly and building up of the West Pacific warm pool or the strengthening of the Humboldt Current. And Kelvin waves etc etc. These are perhaps emergent effects from say the LOD being altered by the magnetic ropes from the sun and the electromagnetic forces induced in the rotating Earth. There could be all sorts of induced eddy currents (or changes in the induced currents) in the Earth's core with who knows what effects. |
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 9, 2020 19:21:32 GMT
Well Naut I much prefer the settled version of this process.
Just saying.
The arrogance of the Climate community is extraordinary when you look back at the CAGW discussion.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 22, 2020 4:17:45 GMT
It's an Electro-Magnetic Universe and half the university stars are still douching with CO2. David continues his voyage of history and imagination backward and forward to a wetter Africa. It is entertaining and who knows. Not so long ago, the continents didn't float and move about. And more recently the sun didn't hold us in an electro-magnetic grip. Pretty soon they will confirm that GDS is real ... and many humans are quickly shorting out.
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But if not, strap yourselves in. Could be an interesting ride to MAX and beyond. Assuming we are not overrun by the Red Tide rising in our midst.
