Post by missouriboy on Dec 30, 2020 9:11:53 GMT
The Fourth Turning: Latest Installment
Some years back, I first read the Book "The Fourth Turning" (published 1997). It has beome something of a cult classic, developing a thesis of cycles in human history documented back to the 15th Century. If the thesis is even partially true, then we are right on track (perhaps right in the middle) for the next event. The essence of the thesis is that history flows through repetitive sets of "seasons" which are expressed in characteristics of generations that mature during each season. Although no two cycles are the same, they rhyme as Mark Twain noted. A Fourth Turning is merely the transitional season, within which that which has assembled over the first three seasons breaks down and morphs into something else ... sometimes violently, sometimes less violently. There seems little doubt (I always leave room for some) that the state of our nation, our economy and our world is under strain. Like changes in climate associated with solar minimums (both between "normal" cycles and across multi-cycle downturns) it seems that human activity patterns, like weather patterns, tend to become more erratic and drift to extremes. This is a perfect monitoring timeframe for those interested in fitting data to patterns, or vice versa. Perhaps not unlike a socialogist taking notes on the deck of the Titanic ... although I missed that book. I think I have met some of the characters however.
For those who don't have the book, there are several sites from which one can read it. This is only one ...
nwcbooks.com/download/the-fourth-turning-pdf/
www.lifecourse.com/assets/files/turnings_in_history(1).pdf List of Turnings in History
This next site is authored by one gone "whole hog" on the Turning. Last update May 10, 2020. Seems to be in process of moving to a remote farm in Panama. Not a judgement, just the data. To summarize, I think it's fair to say that he thinks we're f_cked. Worth reading though, as he has spent a lot of time on it. Doesn't mean he's right. Doesn't mean he's wrong. He makes some fair points. If I were a member of the low-middle middle class, aged lets say 40 to 50, whose only real assets were tied up in a house (the bank may take it back) and maybe a small pension fund (which may go belly up), with numerous debts that I could not pay because I or my wife are no longer employed (because of Covid or otherwise), I think I might be REAL unhappy. Unhappy enough to do some very destructive things I otherwise wouldn't consider. Civil unrest is often a characteristic of a turning. And that doesn't include the woke unemployable urban mobs that seemly need little encouragement to "cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war". Urban and rural defense associations are forming. Visited my doctor today and had a nice chat on this topic with his nurse, who is of like mind and armament. Has neighbors and friends of similar mind and intent. We exchanged contacts, etc. Aging old rebels don't scare worth a damn.
If the climate cycle is an integral component of the change we appear to be witnessing, then all kinds of conjecture are acceptable as long as we don't go all the way to La La land. We try hard to never drink our own koolaid. I am only half joking when I use the phrase Geomagnetic Disorder Syndrome (GDS) as a possible source of, or a catchall to describe the evolving human condition. Too many weak neural circuits compounded by desperation.
Tally ho!
www.theburningplatform.com/2020/05/10/fourth-turning-accelerating-towards-climax/ several linked pages and sub-topics.
Some years back, I first read the Book "The Fourth Turning" (published 1997). It has beome something of a cult classic, developing a thesis of cycles in human history documented back to the 15th Century. If the thesis is even partially true, then we are right on track (perhaps right in the middle) for the next event. The essence of the thesis is that history flows through repetitive sets of "seasons" which are expressed in characteristics of generations that mature during each season. Although no two cycles are the same, they rhyme as Mark Twain noted. A Fourth Turning is merely the transitional season, within which that which has assembled over the first three seasons breaks down and morphs into something else ... sometimes violently, sometimes less violently. There seems little doubt (I always leave room for some) that the state of our nation, our economy and our world is under strain. Like changes in climate associated with solar minimums (both between "normal" cycles and across multi-cycle downturns) it seems that human activity patterns, like weather patterns, tend to become more erratic and drift to extremes. This is a perfect monitoring timeframe for those interested in fitting data to patterns, or vice versa. Perhaps not unlike a socialogist taking notes on the deck of the Titanic ... although I missed that book. I think I have met some of the characters however.
For those who don't have the book, there are several sites from which one can read it. This is only one ...
nwcbooks.com/download/the-fourth-turning-pdf/
www.lifecourse.com/assets/files/turnings_in_history(1).pdf List of Turnings in History
This next site is authored by one gone "whole hog" on the Turning. Last update May 10, 2020. Seems to be in process of moving to a remote farm in Panama. Not a judgement, just the data. To summarize, I think it's fair to say that he thinks we're f_cked. Worth reading though, as he has spent a lot of time on it. Doesn't mean he's right. Doesn't mean he's wrong. He makes some fair points. If I were a member of the low-middle middle class, aged lets say 40 to 50, whose only real assets were tied up in a house (the bank may take it back) and maybe a small pension fund (which may go belly up), with numerous debts that I could not pay because I or my wife are no longer employed (because of Covid or otherwise), I think I might be REAL unhappy. Unhappy enough to do some very destructive things I otherwise wouldn't consider. Civil unrest is often a characteristic of a turning. And that doesn't include the woke unemployable urban mobs that seemly need little encouragement to "cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war". Urban and rural defense associations are forming. Visited my doctor today and had a nice chat on this topic with his nurse, who is of like mind and armament. Has neighbors and friends of similar mind and intent. We exchanged contacts, etc. Aging old rebels don't scare worth a damn.
If the climate cycle is an integral component of the change we appear to be witnessing, then all kinds of conjecture are acceptable as long as we don't go all the way to La La land. We try hard to never drink our own koolaid. I am only half joking when I use the phrase Geomagnetic Disorder Syndrome (GDS) as a possible source of, or a catchall to describe the evolving human condition. Too many weak neural circuits compounded by desperation.
Tally ho!
www.theburningplatform.com/2020/05/10/fourth-turning-accelerating-towards-climax/ several linked pages and sub-topics.