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Post by missouriboy on Apr 30, 2021 14:09:29 GMT
This thread is early. But if Astro is correct, it will be a Big one. So might as well get started tracking indicators that may be precurrsors to "The Event". I will start with a Solar Cycle timeseries as a visual comparison of past activity to today. Eye candy really. Ghosts of Winters Past ... and, for that matter, poor springs (if so it be ... or not). Visually, solar activity since the trailing days of SC23 look more like the three cycles from ~1873 to 1914. There certainly were many notorious winters in those years. More recently, some (many) of us remember winters in the 1960s-80s. Visually, in terms of sunspots and spotless days, they don't measure up. Has or World warmed enough, that our recent winters don't compare. Seems that comments from the British Isles and elsewhere reference winters of the last solar minimum as comparisons. Are they really? Do we have enough dependable metrics to quantify a comparison? It will be up to us to see if we do, or not. The US Drought Monitor for April is much worse than it was in April 2010, or April 2011, or even April 2012 (the 3 years of the last pre-cycle Nina). So far, Middle Earth has remained wet ... wetter than it was at this time in the 2012 drought year. Not looking good for the West and the Plains.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 30, 2021 19:21:50 GMT
Are 2021 and 2012 transposed - or have I misunderstood what you were trying to show?
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 30, 2021 20:01:57 GMT
Are 2021 and 2012 transposed - or have I misunderstood what you were trying to show? Just go clockwise from top left. La Nina and its asscoiated western US droughts for practical purposes transcended 2010-11 and were relatively mild (in April) in comparison to what we see developing in US West and Plains this year. Midwest drought kicked in in 2012. Cold and dry could be a double whammy.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 30, 2021 23:27:24 GMT
Are 2021 and 2012 transposed - or have I misunderstood what you were trying to show? Just go clockwise from top left. La Nina and its asscoiated western US droughts for practical purposes transcended 2010-11 and were relatively mild (in April) in comparison to what we see developing in US West and Plains this year. Midwest drought kicked in in 2012. Cold and dry could be a double whammy. Doesn't 'dry' usually go with 'cold'?
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Post by nonentropic on May 1, 2021 0:31:10 GMT
In Winter Ratty in summer Joe B would say if it's dry you fry.
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Post by sigurdur on May 1, 2021 0:47:41 GMT
Yes and no. ND broke a bunch of overnight lows because our dew points are so low.
Last night was 16F, which is 17F below long term averages.
Daytime highs are well below average as well.
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Post by missouriboy on May 1, 2021 1:03:24 GMT
Just go clockwise from top left. La Nina and its asscoiated western US droughts for practical purposes transcended 2010-11 and were relatively mild (in April) in comparison to what we see developing in US West and Plains this year. Midwest drought kicked in in 2012. Cold and dry could be a double whammy. Doesn't 'dry' usually go with 'cold'? Our winter is also our driest season. When spring and summer go dry as well, we are in trouble ... like in 2012.
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Post by nautonnier on May 2, 2021 20:54:24 GMT
Doesn't 'dry' usually go with 'cold'? Our winter is also our driest season. When spring and summer go dry as well, we are in trouble ... like in 2012. All driven by enthalpy The HVAC engineers seem to understand that more than PhD Climatologists
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 11, 2021 2:55:51 GMT
Ths Southern canaries are singing again. White flags are now considered racist. They are going with ISIS black.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 11, 2021 3:42:38 GMT
we in NZ are still warm. yesterday in Auckland city 21C.
The Australian have stolen our snow ever so typical. We want it back!
It does look as though the winds miss NZ and push the fronts into Australia going to start worrying about the ski season very soon.
I have lived in Sydney for 4 years and it can be cold but 10C max is sensational.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 11, 2021 5:59:25 GMT
we in NZ are still warm. yesterday in Auckland city 21C. The Australian have stolen our snow ever so typical. We want it back! It does look as though the winds miss NZ and push the fronts into Australia going to start worrying about the ski season very soon. I have lived in Sydney for 4 years and it can be cold but 10C max is sensational. Expect pushback from the climate lobby. "War is peace / freedom is slavery [and] ignorance is strength."
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Post by douglavers on Jun 11, 2021 19:52:02 GMT
It is rather wet/cold in Central and Eastern Victoria. Some parts of mountainous East have enjoyed nearly 300mm of rain and there is large scale flooding. Much snow in mountains.
On Wednesday night, rather stormy in Melbourne. In the Dandenong Hills near here, large numbers of Mountain Ash [tallest tree on the planet] were felled. A number of houses and large numbers of cars destroyed.
We went to a little village on the NE side yesterday, quite low down. Walking tracks were covered and surrounded by fallen trees. In one section, 5 large adjacent trees had all been knocked over. Looked cyclonic.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 11, 2021 20:59:50 GMT
It is rather wet/cold in Central and Eastern Victoria. Some parts of mountainous East have enjoyed nearly 300mm of rain and there is large scale flooding. Much snow in mountains. On Wednesday night, rather stormy in Melbourne. In the Dandenong Hills near here, large numbers of Mountain Ash [tallest tree on the planet] were felled. A number of houses and large numbers of cars destroyed. We went to a little village on the NE side yesterday, quite low down. Walking tracks were covered and surrounded by fallen trees. In one section, 5 large adjacent trees had all been knocked over. Looked cyclonic. Has our ABC blamed it on climate change collapse yet? Salt erosion increasingly decaying cave paintings believed to be world's oldestIs there nothing that the ABC's Climate Cult Chapter does not blame on climate change? Could it be that the paintings are deteriorating because they are 44,000 years old?
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 12, 2021 2:48:41 GMT
It is rather wet/cold in Central and Eastern Victoria. Some parts of mountainous East have enjoyed nearly 300mm of rain and there is large scale flooding. Much snow in mountains. On Wednesday night, rather stormy in Melbourne. In the Dandenong Hills near here, large numbers of Mountain Ash [tallest tree on the planet] were felled. A number of houses and large numbers of cars destroyed. We went to a little village on the NE side yesterday, quite low down. Walking tracks were covered and surrounded by fallen trees. In one section, 5 large adjacent trees had all been knocked over. Looked cyclonic. Has our ABC blamed it on climate change collapse yet? Salt erosion increasingly decaying cave paintings believed to be world's oldestIs there nothing that the ABC's Climate Cult Chapter does not blame on climate change? Could it be that the paintings are deteriorating because they are 44,000 years old You WILL have a fair trial!
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 18, 2021 4:11:19 GMT
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