*EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011*

[solarstormlover54]

www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=alta_hit_with_late_spring_s_040611?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories

Link to the story about the snow.
The closest airport to me is the Edmonton international Airport. It is 35km from me


Today were getting thunderstorms. Quite the change in just one day.
Though we had the reverse May 20th last year we had a thunderstorm then snow

[AstroMet]

Jun 5, 2011 20:59:38 GMT solarstormlover54 said:

www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=alta_hit_with_late_spring_s_040611?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories

Link to the story about the snow.
The closest airport to me is the Edmonton international Airport. It is 35km from me


Today were getting thunderstorms. Quite the change in just one day.
Though we had the reverse May 20th last year we had a thunderstorm then snow

Thanks for the update solarstormlover. Current atmospheric climate conditions should improve by 21 June, when the Sun reaches 73.83 degrees at the 40th parallel. There have been coronal mass ejections this month with the solar winds hitting the earth this weekend.

Lots of wild weather this spring with most of the strongest events La Nina-induced, especially in the U.S. West and South. The northern regions of North America, including Alberta have saturated soils from heavy snows/precipitation that raised water tables across a decent chunk of the continent.

[solarstormlover54]

Something that started me thinking is the kinds of records we have set or broken here over the last few years. Whether it's for heat, cold, snowfall, or rainfall; Good chunk of them have one thing in common. They were set back in the 1910s during the last period of lowered solar activity.
Oddly the kind of weather we get in the event of a "maunder minimum" is actually not what you would expect.
While much of the world had cold and wet conditions we actually had the opposite(at least during the summer)

All over the Canadian prairies there are spots filled with sand dunes, these dunes are dated back to the late 1600s.
The reason for the severe desertification is because of several reasons.

During solar grand min evaporation is slowed and less of it comes over land and thus can not make it into the interior of the continent.
The jet stream shifts keeping major rain systems away.
Glaciers are advancing and giving off considerably less melt water, this leads to major rivers running low or drying up.
The lack of water or clouds leads to extreme high and low temperatures, 110F during the summer and -70F during the winter. this further increases summer evaporation and the winters are dry and likely get only an inch or two of snow.
Not what we expect for "maunder minimum" weather in Alberta?
In fact "global warming" increases the moisture, making for warmer winters and COOLER summers.

Also some other epic drought seem to link to a lack of solar activity.
Major droughts also hit around 1820, and the more famous 1930s drought.
Today the remaining dunes serve as a place to have fun with an ATV or dirt bike, yet we don't realize how they came to be and how the same event that created them may be just decades away

[thermostat]

Jun 7, 2011 8:14:55 GMT solarstormlover54 said:

Something that started me thinking is the kinds of records we have set or broken here over the last few years. Whether it's for heat, cold, snowfall, or rainfall; Good chunk of them have one thing in common. They were set back in the 1910s during the last period of lowered solar activity.
Oddly the kind of weather we get in the event of a "maunder minimum" is actually not what you would expect.
While much of the world had cold and wet conditions we actually had the opposite(at least during the summer)

All over the Canadian prairies there are spots filled with sand dunes, these dunes are dated back to the late 1600s.
The reason for the severe desertification is because of several reasons.

During solar grand min evaporation is slowed and less of it comes over land and thus can not make it into the interior of the continent.
The jet stream shifts keeping major rain systems away.
Glaciers are advancing and giving off considerably less melt water, this leads to major rivers running low or drying up.
The lack of water or clouds leads to extreme high and low temperatures, 110F during the summer and -70F during the winter. this further increases summer evaporation and the winters are dry and likely get only an inch or two of snow.
Not what we expect for "maunder minimum" weather in Alberta?
In fact "global warming" increases the moisture, making for warmer winters and COOLER summers.

Also some other epic drought seem to link to a lack of solar activity.
Major droughts also hit around 1820, and the more famous 1930s drought.
Today the remaining dunes serve as a place to have fun with an ATV or dirt bike, yet we don't realize how they came to be and how the same event that created them may be just decades away

solarstormlover54

Watching climate in real time is interesting but irrelevant.

Noone watches with such attention for 15 or 20 years at a time.

solarstormlover54, climate is weather over years and years.

[AstroMet]

Jun 7, 2011 8:14:55 GMT solarstormlover54 said:

Something that started me thinking is the kinds of records we have set or broken here over the last few years. Whether it's for heat, cold, snowfall, or rainfall; Good chunk of them have one thing in common. They were set back in the 1910s during the last period of lowered solar activity.
Oddly the kind of weather we get in the event of a "maunder minimum" is actually not what you would expect.
While much of the world had cold and wet conditions we actually had the opposite(at least during the summer)

All over the Canadian prairies there are spots filled with sand dunes, these dunes are dated back to the late 1600s.
The reason for the severe desertification is because of several reasons.

During solar grand min evaporation is slowed and less of it comes over land and thus can not make it into the interior of the continent.
The jet stream shifts keeping major rain systems away.
Glaciers are advancing and giving off considerably less melt water, this leads to major rivers running low or drying up.
The lack of water or clouds leads to extreme high and low temperatures, 110F during the summer and -70F during the winter. this further increases summer evaporation and the winters are dry and likely get only an inch or two of snow.
Not what we expect for "maunder minimum" weather in Alberta?
In fact "global warming" increases the moisture, making for warmer winters and COOLER summers.

Also some other epic drought seem to link to a lack of solar activity.
Major droughts also hit around 1820, and the more famous 1930s drought.
Today the remaining dunes serve as a place to have fun with an ATV or dirt bike, yet we don't realize how they came to be and how the same event that created them may be just decades away

Good observations solarstormlover. Climate over the longer-range, as I see it astronomically, includes the spread of drought at periodic stages of sunspot activity spread over decades.

We are seeing increases in drought arriving at/r near the same time as heavy precipitation globally, though in the period 2009-2011 this was ENSO.

The Sun continues to emerge out of minimum so we will see how things go to mid-decade and the year 2017 when I expect a new global cooling cycle to officially begin.

[socold]

Here's my ENSO forecast for fun. 3 year prediction! (wow!), which is based on uhhh hunch..

In the rest of 2011 ENSO will go positive, but barely and will not produce an El Nino. Then ENSO will drop back into negative, further into negative than it went positive. So we likely be heading into another La Nina going into 2012, but probably weaker than the one just past. Timescales get a bit blurry here. Either by mid 2012, slightly earlier or later I expect the 2012 La Nina will die away and we will get another El Nino. The crystal ball says no clues about how strong that El Nino will be.

[AstroMet]

Jun 9, 2011 19:14:34 GMT socold said:

Here's my ENSO forecast for fun. 3 year prediction! (wow!), which is based on uhhh hunch..

In the rest of 2011 ENSO will go positive, but barely and will not produce an El Nino. Then ENSO will drop back into negative, further into negative than it went positive. So we likely be heading into another La Nina going into 2012, but probably weaker than the one just past. Timescales get a bit blurry here. Either by mid 2012, slightly earlier or later I expect the 2012 La Nina will die away and we will get another El Nino. The crystal ball says no clues about how strong that El Nino will be.

Well, for one ENSOs do not work that way. There's always spacing between the oscillation climate event. La Nina should be at neutral about now and by August fully neutral with the event past us.

I've got the opposite forecasted from 2012 to 2016 - and that's warmer climate conditions - but not an ENSO, the climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought. The record levels of heavy precipitation, at least for a few years, will soon be behind us.

We're on the last phase of solar-forced global warming with about six (6) years left before global cooling officially begins.

[glc]

I've got the opposite forecasted from 2012 to 2016 - and that's warmer climate conditions - but not an ENSO, the climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought. The record levels of heavy precipitation, at least for a few years, will soon be behind us.

When you say the "climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought" what exactly are you referring to.

[AstroMet]

Jun 9, 2011 22:17:55 GMT glc said:

I've got the opposite forecasted from 2012 to 2016 - and that's warmer climate conditions - but not an ENSO, the climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought. The record levels of heavy precipitation, at least for a few years, will soon be behind us.

When you say the "climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought" what exactly are you referring to.

The weather conditions I have seen in that period by astronomic means. That is what I am referring to.

[glc]

Jun 9, 2011 22:43:09 GMT AstroMet said:

Jun 9, 2011 22:17:55 GMT glc said:

I've got the opposite forecasted from 2012 to 2016 - and that's warmer climate conditions - but not an ENSO, the climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought. The record levels of heavy precipitation, at least for a few years, will soon be behind us.

When you say the "climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought" what exactly are you referring to.

The weather conditions I have seen in that period by astronomic means. That is what I am referring to.

I was referring to the geographic locations. Are you forecasting that the climate will be "warmer, windier and drier" right across the globe or just in certain regions.

Could you be more specific?

[thermostat]

NOAA posted their latest ENSO update today

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

The recent La Nina officially ended last month. El Nino neutral conditions are likely to continue through the northern hemisphere summer. There is nothing to indicate a return to La Nina conditions.

[AstroMet]

Jun 9, 2011 23:32:19 GMT glc said:

Jun 9, 2011 22:43:09 GMT AstroMet said:

The weather conditions I have seen in that period by astronomic means. That is what I am referring to.

I was referring to the geographic locations. Are you forecasting that the climate will be "warmer, windier and drier" right across the globe or just in certain regions.

Could you be more specific?

I will in my 2012-2017 climate forecast. I will publish the public version of it next month.

[thermostat]

Jun 9, 2011 19:32:47 GMT AstroMet said:

Jun 9, 2011 19:14:34 GMT socold said:

Here's my ENSO forecast for fun. 3 year prediction! (wow!), which is based on uhhh hunch..

In the rest of 2011 ENSO will go positive, but barely and will not produce an El Nino. Then ENSO will drop back into negative, further into negative than it went positive. So we likely be heading into another La Nina going into 2012, but probably weaker than the one just past. Timescales get a bit blurry here. Either by mid 2012, slightly earlier or later I expect the 2012 La Nina will die away and we will get another El Nino. The crystal ball says no clues about how strong that El Nino will be.

Well, for one ENSOs do not work that way. There's always spacing between the oscillation climate event. La Nina should be at neutral about now and by August fully neutral with the event past us.

I've got the opposite forecasted from 2012 to 2016 - and that's warmer climate conditions - but not an ENSO, the climate is warmer, windier and drier with increasing reports of extreme drought. The record levels of heavy precipitation, at least for a few years, will soon be behind us.

We're on the last phase of solar-forced global warming with about six (6) years left before global cooling officially begins.

astromet,

As I just posted, La Nina was officially history last month.

[thermostat]

Of course, the end of La Nina is not the end of, "its all a natural cycle"

Actually, the El Nino side of the coin is commonly referenced as the temperature driver.

That said, any post mortem La Nina comments on where the cooling went? Feel free to explain how the extended solar minimum 'doesn't even matta!' (It's still the sun bro, trust me on this one... )

[AstroMet]

Jun 12, 2011 1:58:33 GMT thermostat said:

Of course, the end of La Nina is not the end of, "its all a natural cycle"

Actually, the El Nino side of the coin is commonly referenced as the temperature driver.

That said, any post mortem La Nina comments on where the cooling went? Feel free to explain how the extended solar minimum 'doesn't even matta!' (It's still the sun bro, trust me on this one... )

And your point is exactly what tstat? ENSO, that is both El Nino and La Nina, affect temperature and weather conditions when they are operative during their oscillation cycles.

The Sun controls the constitution of the Earth's atmosphere and drives oceans. Yes, of course it is the Sun. That is how our natural climate system works. So what is your point?