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Post by poitsplace on May 1, 2010 8:30:50 GMT
Well we know some of them but not all of them. Could it be that as we get a conjunction of cooling signals (sun, oceans, PDO, La Nina, volcanism etc) where the earth cools enough to start getting significant increases in snow cover on land and sea ice in the oceans that more heat is reflected rather than absorbed producing a cumulative effect that then progresses towards the glaciation cycle making it harder for the interglacial attractor to overpower it. On the bright side (sort of)...if EVER there was a time that CO2 would save our asses, it's near the frigid conditions of the glacial maximum. That's about the only time when any of earth's surface could have substantial GHG forcing. The rest of the time the water cycle just throws all the energy into the troposphere its self. LOL, so at least CO2 should help keep us from freezing up quite as much if the glacial period strikes. |
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on May 2, 2010 3:47:08 GMT
as a Canadian MY nation will go extinct if there were to be a glacial maximum.
I don't know who would suffer more, Us northerners being refugees in a tropical country. or those in the tropical nations losing their jobs to refugees from smart northern countries.
I would bet the parts of the earth free of ice would break out in war over the reduced amount of arable land as most of the grain belt will be under miles of ice. The "control powers" of the world are also too far north to escape the horror. Canada, USA, UK, Russia, China, Japan, Germany. basically nearly all G8 nations will be gone if we get a glacial maximum.
The only good nations that will survive it are Singapore, Hong kong, Australia, and the middle east.
Ice age mean we go to the Mosque and say goodbye to the church!
The last ice age nearly wiped us out, though we have the tech and smarts to thrive on a cold world we will lose 60% of our population and most of our cities to war or ice
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Post by scpg02 on May 2, 2010 6:04:00 GMT
as a Canadian MY nation will go extinct if there were to be a glacial maximum. Y'all come down to Arizona and Florida when it gets cold anyway. |
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Post by nautonnier on May 2, 2010 8:25:12 GMT
A lot depends on how quickly temperatures drop. The drop in temperatures in the Younger Dryas took only a couple of decades with average temperatures dropping to remain below freezing in Northern Europe.
A similar drop now, at that speed, would be impossible to deal with politically. Food would be the main and immediate problem - there would be no way to feed everyone.
The probability is that such rapid changes arise due to an alteration in atmospheric and ocean currents with each feeding back to the other - a classic chaotic state change. The pattern matching approach we see used with ENSO and other oscillations is not going to provide a forecast of a chaotic state change. It could be a wild and unexpected ride.
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Post by poitsplace on May 2, 2010 9:18:05 GMT
A younger dryas type event would be the time for geoengineering projects...First, I assume they'd be dumping carbon black (or just ground up coal) on the snow/ice to keep everything freezing up so fast. It would probably be quite effective. Back to the topic...WUWT has an article about El Nino modoki not being followed by La Ninas. wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/ |
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Post by nautonnier on May 2, 2010 12:23:38 GMT
A younger dryas type event would be the time for geoengineering projects...First, I assume they'd be dumping carbon black (or just ground up coal) on the snow/ice to keep everything freezing up so fast. It would probably be quite effective. Back to the topic...WUWT has an article about El Nino modoki not being followed by La Ninas. wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/Yes I saw the WUWT post - however the system we are looking at as a snap shot of only 2 centuries is a chaotic system as I said in my previous post solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=gotopost&board=globalwarming&thread=987&post=45919 So how much we can learn from watching a few dozen swirls in the chaotic pattern I am not sure. The NH polar vortex for the last 18 months has not behaved as it has before. Let's see what happens - it is nice to have another prediction to validate though  |
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Post by icefisher on May 2, 2010 13:16:48 GMT
As autumn is a typical transitional period for ENSO, model predictions of El Niño through and beyond autumn are generally less reliable than at other times of the year. I would like to see the shape of the skill curve compared to random guesses as they go beyond seasonal models now that we have more than a decade under out belt. Lets see 30 random guesses (3 choice multiple choice warmer (+.15degC/decade or more, neutral, cooler -.15degC/decade or less): 10-20 30 GCMS: 0-30 How many SDs is that? LOL! |
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Post by twawki on May 3, 2010 21:41:28 GMT
Well you are welcome here in Australia. We are heading into our flood cycle when ATM so our rural sector should rebound strongly. A couple of decades should be long enough for alternatives to be put in action - probably not by the pollies but by sensible people. There have never been many glaciers on the mainland and there is a lot of land here!
April marked first month with SOI above +8 lets see how May and June go. Startimg to cool down here finally though we have had some glorious weather!
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Post by poitsplace on May 4, 2010 5:28:07 GMT
I wonder how the conditions at the specific sites we use to measure SOI vary (in general) with temperature.
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Post by twawki on May 4, 2010 12:10:18 GMT
You would need to look in detail at a location. I think coastal areas would be impacted first with the movement of warm and cool bodies of water. Whereas I think alpine areas would be impacted first by low solar activity as the upper atmosphere cools. Then you have inland areas of continents that could be impacted later but that would then depend on the passage of high and low pressure systems and how they redistribute heat and cold from the oceans and also the channelling of ground air up or upper atmosphere temps down depending on the barometric pressure
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Post by glc on May 4, 2010 12:50:59 GMT
You would need to look in detail at a location. I think coastal areas would be impacted first with the movement of warm and cool bodies of water. Whereas I think alpine areas would be impacted first by low solar activity as the upper atmosphere cools.
What is it exactly that causes the upper atmosphere to cool and what do you define as the upper atmosphere?
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Post by magellan on May 5, 2010 2:47:57 GMT
You would need to look in detail at a location. I think coastal areas would be impacted first with the movement of warm and cool bodies of water. Whereas I think alpine areas would be impacted first by low solar activity as the upper atmosphere cools. What is it exactly that causes the upper atmosphere to cool and what do you define as the upper atmosphere? What is it exactly that causes the upper atmosphere to cool The sun. what do you define as the upper atmosphere? There is only one definition of the upper atmosphere. |
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Post by glc on May 5, 2010 7:32:37 GMT
What is it exactly that causes the upper atmosphere to cool
The sun. Ok - but by what mechanism specifically. Is it due to a change in TSI, for example? what do you define as the upper atmosphere?
There is only one definition of the upper atmosphere. [/color][/i] I disagree. I've seen the stratosphere, mesosphere, even the upper troposphere referred to as the upper atmosphere, so I repeat, how is the upper atmosphere being defined. A simple definition which refers to altitude or pressure level would be fine. |
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Post by poitsplace on May 5, 2010 10:21:42 GMT
It would be good if you guys would be more specific about the parts of the atmosphere you're talking about.
If you're talking about the cooling in the stratosphere that is expected during a significant solar minimum...the mechanism is rather obvious. Since the region is warmed mostly by UV and since the sun's UV output varies by as much as several percent between max/min...solar UV output is the mechanism...IF you're talking about the stratosphere
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Post by magellan on May 5, 2010 16:30:09 GMT
What is it exactly that causes the upper atmosphere to cool
The sun. Ok - but by what mechanism specifically. Is it due to a change in TSI, for example? what do you define as the upper atmosphere?
There is only one definition of the upper atmosphere. [/color][/i] I disagree. I've seen the stratosphere, mesosphere, even the upper troposphere referred to as the upper atmosphere, so I repeat, how is the upper atmosphere being defined. A simple definition which refers to altitude or pressure level would be fine. [/quote] Well, since you weren't asking me, allow the OP to define it. Yes, I suppose upper atmosphere could mean different things to different people. This is what I meant in relation to the sun: www.space.com/scienceastronomy/091217-agu-earth-atmosphere-cooling.htmlIt is a bit humorous that article clearly links solar cycle changes with the recent observed upper atmospheric cooling, yet still assume CO2 is connected or will be in the future. I'm tossing this one in the '*hit we don't know we don't know' category. The stratosphere should be cooling as well according to AGW hypothesis, but that is not working as planned. |
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