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Post by icefisher on Apr 25, 2010 3:43:05 GMT
The number of private clients is no guide. Some people are daft enough to pay for a Corbyn forecast for goodness sake! I would agree with you if the client list is primarily the bunch of heiresses and trust fund babies that gravitate around the NGOs and subscribe to Nature Magazine primarily because its cool to have one on the coffee table. OTOH, if the client list is ag-businesses thats a completely different story. |
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Post by magellan on Apr 25, 2010 4:49:19 GMT
The number of private clients is no guide. Some people are daft enough to pay for a Corbyn forecast for goodness sake! I would agree with you if the client list is primarily the bunch of heiresses and trust fund babies that gravitate around the NGOs and subscribe to Nature Magazine primarily because its cool to have one on the coffee table. OTOH, if the client list is ag-businesses thats a completely different story. You should know by now steve would never make generalizations  |
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 25, 2010 15:35:19 GMT
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtmlwww.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gifIs the growth of that cooler area just south of the equator the main driver behind the El-Nino values weakening? I thought El-Nino weakens to nothing, not getting pushed aside(the blue area appears to be pushing north). Could this be a El-Nino La-Nina hybrid? as you can see the upper warm area is still in place and even shows a tad bit of growth in the last 2 weeks(first link) Also because of the off balance nature of the warm water could it be driven north over the summer? Also is it normal for for warm El-Nino water to get pushed aside? before Well the 'normal' behavior is thought to be the tradewinds blowing the surface layers of the Pacific back West leads to upwelling of the Humbolt current and cold waters spreading. Perhaps we are witnessing how an El Nino Modoki collapses? if you look at:  You can see the cold surface water extending North West to the equator. Even more interesting is the cold pool developing in the mid-Atlantic with the Gulf of Mexico cold also this does not look like warm water to source the Gulf Stream (North Atlantic Drift ) it may also affect the Atlantic hurricane season. Then even more cold North of Hawaii and along the West Pacific coasts and up to the Bering Straits. Interesting times indeed. |
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Post by hilbert on Apr 30, 2010 2:17:29 GMT
SOI went negative, just a bit, after a month of being positive. Maybe El Nino isn't quite over?
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 30, 2010 2:48:14 GMT
SOI went negative, just a bit, after a month of being positive. Maybe El Nino isn't quite over? El Nino can only lead to warm water in the East Pacific if there is sufficient _warm_ water in the West to slop back in the Kelvin wave when the trade-winds weaken (indicated by the SOI). If you look at the Unisys map in the post above you will see that there is little or no warm pool in the West to feed an EL Nino. Indeed there are few warm anomalies. Perhaps we are seeing for the first time what the main phase of a negative PDO looks like. |
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Post by twawki on Apr 30, 2010 3:32:25 GMT
That map looks cold nautonnier. Weve had an indian summer here in Sydney and now it's giving way to cold. Japan space agency is predicting cold and wet ahead for eastern Australia which would be consistent with the sun inactivity, cooling PDO and La nina building as well as ocean cooling. SOI is hovering around +12-13 so April will be the first month of a La Nina signal - if the same happens in May and June then the La Nina is official. As to how long and how strong this La Nina lasts and if Iceland's eruptions continue and expand as history has shown then it could be very cold indeed.
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Post by poitsplace on Apr 30, 2010 7:02:52 GMT
If you look at the Unisys map in the post above you will see that there is little or no warm pool in the West to feed an EL Nino. Indeed there are few warm anomalies. Perhaps we are seeing for the first time what the main phase of a negative PDO looks like. Indeed. It's "exciting" to watch it happen...if anything that takes years and years to happen can be considered exciting. Unfortunately I'm left with a bit of apprehension. Feedbacks are stacked against warming but they don't have quite the same aversion to cooling. Also...Increased volcanic activity isn't too much to fear. The cooling phase of the PDO isn't too much to fear. The cooling of a solar minimum doesn't appear to be worth worrying about. But together...that's easily enough for a 1C drop. I would really rather not have winters like they had around 1900. Finally...a question. Have we ever even seen a powerful La Nina during the satellite era? The 2008 La Nina was described as moderate wasn't it? That nearly dropped the anomaly to zero. |
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Post by twawki on Apr 30, 2010 13:30:55 GMT
Well its the combination of cooling signals as well as the ongoing nature of them. The longer they continue as a group the deeper the cold will be. Different scientists are saying 20-30 years - the big wild card will be how low the sun cycle goes and also volcanism - both can either deepen or moderate the cold.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 30, 2010 17:46:58 GMT
The whole system - Sun, planetary orbits, winds and oceans with their separate differential rotations and differing responses to tides, thermohaline currents, large convective cells in the ocean and atmosphere, moving layers above and below a thermocline in the ocean and in the atmosphere, the sea surface temperatures driving the convection that creates inflowing winds that change the sea surface temperatures and pile up sea levels across oceans, underlying these are annual, decadal and multi-decadal changes that we know about but do not know the reason for.... the entire chaotic system is currently in a set of states that keeps it close to the interglacial attractor.
By far the stronger attractor is the glacial - and if the right combination of the factors above are in the right phase - the entire system will move to the glacial state.
It would be really useful to know what those factors and phases are. I would hazard a guess that the level of atmospheric CO2 is not one of them.
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Post by twawki on May 1, 2010 0:40:10 GMT
Well we know some of them but not all of them. Could it be that as we get a conjunction of cooling signals (sun, oceans, PDO, La Nina, volcanism etc) where the earth cools enough to start getting significant increases in snow cover on land and sea ice in the oceans that more heat is reflected rather than absorbed producing a cumulative effect that then progresses towards the glaciation cycle making it harder for the interglacial attractor to overpower it.
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Post by twawki on May 1, 2010 0:40:57 GMT
Good think is CO2 is actually causing plant growth to increase
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Post by magellan on May 1, 2010 0:46:34 GMT
Well we know some of them but not all of them. Could it be that as we get a conjunction of cooling signals (sun, oceans, PDO, La Nina, volcanism etc) where the earth cools enough to start getting significant increases in snow cover on land and sea ice in the oceans that more heat is reflected rather than absorbed producing a cumulative effect that then progresses towards the glaciation cycle making it harder for the interglacial attractor to overpower it. Ah yes, synchronized chaos. www.wisn.com/weather/18935841/detail.htmlpantherfile.uwm.edu/aatsonis/www/2007GL030288.pdfIn AGW world, well........ |
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Post by dartman321 on May 1, 2010 1:13:18 GMT
Astromet:
Are you still sticking with your original prediction that started this string............"For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, ....."?
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Post by nautonnier on May 1, 2010 1:14:21 GMT
Well we know some of them but not all of them. Could it be that as we get a conjunction of cooling signals (sun, oceans, PDO, La Nina, volcanism etc) where the earth cools enough to start getting significant increases in snow cover on land and sea ice in the oceans that more heat is reflected rather than absorbed producing a cumulative effect that then progresses towards the glaciation cycle making it harder for the interglacial attractor to overpower it. Ah yes, synchronized chaos. www.wisn.com/weather/18935841/detail.htmlpantherfile.uwm.edu/aatsonis/www/2007GL030288.pdfIn AGW world, well........
"But if we don't understand what is natural, I don't think we can say much about what the humans are doing. So our interest is to understand -- first the natural variability of climate -- and then take it from there. So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural," Tsonis said."They'll never be accepted as climate 'scientists' with that attitude  |
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Post by icefisher on May 1, 2010 7:52:44 GMT
The whole system - Sun, planetary orbits, winds and oceans with their separate differential rotations and differing responses to tides, thermohaline currents, large convective cells in the ocean and atmosphere, moving layers above and below a thermocline in the ocean and in the atmosphere, the sea surface temperatures driving the convection that creates inflowing winds that change the sea surface temperatures and pile up sea levels across oceans, underlying these are annual, decadal and multi-decadal changes that we know about but do not know the reason for.... the entire chaotic system is currently in a set of states that keeps it close to the interglacial attractor. By far the stronger attractor is the glacial - and if the right combination of the factors above are in the right phase - the entire system will move to the glacial state. It would be really useful to know what those factors and phases are. I would hazard a guess that the level of atmospheric CO 2 is not one of them. Well the unit root is there in the data suggesting the entire system could be chaotic. This warm ocean/cold land dealy thingy we have been seeing. . . .uh. . . .could be with a switch with a warm ocean loading moisture into the air. . . .moving water onto land in the form of ice. Maybe we need ten times the CO2 in the air!! Maybe Corporate Green is killing us spending the last 40 years trying to get us to sell our pickups. ;D warm oceans yet arctic ice cap growing. interesting times. |
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