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Post by magellan on Apr 8, 2010 13:15:28 GMT
Come now.....what would ole Joe know? Joe predicted the end of the El Niño in October - just before it ramped up again. Predict something for long enough and it may come true. Even global cooling  steve, I'm still waiting for the quote by Bastardi that El Nino would end last October. |
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Post by woodstove on Apr 8, 2010 13:49:30 GMT
Joe predicted the end of the El Niño in October - just before it ramped up again. Predict something for long enough and it may come true. Even global cooling steve, I'm still waiting for the quote by Bastardi that El Nino would end last October. At the risk of seeming fair, Joe Bastardi did write on October 1 the following: "Now, the SOI is a huge factor in my overall scale as 30 and 90 are in the mix, along with the MEI enso 3.4, enso 1.2 Indian Ocean Dipole, glaam, my hidden ace, Lima Peru. ALL these say this Nino is reacting to the pattern, not causing the pattern to react, though there is some feedback, it is merely one of many players and is being controlled by larger scale factors, all of which argue for its demise as the winter progresses." So, he did not say that the Nino was going to disappear on the spot in October but that it should unravel during the winter. He was arguably caught out to some extent with that. However, anyone who follows Bastardi's work will agree that he is the first to acknowledge when he makes a mistake. That is one of the reasons that he manages to be as accurate as he is: the fact that when conditions change he is not forced by ideology or vanity to pretend that they haven't. Case in point: he goes into ritual self-excoriation when he gets a major storm prediction wrong. Good luck finding an example of a scientist on the warmist side admitting error in this way, or any way. As I said before, Bastardi earns the money that Accuweather's many private clients pay for his forecasts. Taking potshots at him, Steve, says much more about you than it does about him. |
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Post by magellan on Apr 8, 2010 16:31:58 GMT
steve, I'm still waiting for the quote by Bastardi that El Nino would end last October. At the risk of seeming fair, Joe Bastardi did write on October 1 the following: "Now, the SOI is a huge factor in my overall scale as 30 and 90 are in the mix, along with the MEI enso 3.4, enso 1.2 Indian Ocean Dipole, glaam, my hidden ace, Lima Peru. ALL these say this Nino is reacting to the pattern, not causing the pattern to react, though there is some feedback, it is merely one of many players and is being controlled by larger scale factors, all of which argue for its demise as the winter progresses." So, he did not say that the Nino was going to disappear on the spot in October but that it should unravel during the winter. He was arguably caught out to some extent with that. However, anyone who follows Bastardi's work will agree that he is the first to acknowledge when he makes a mistake. That is one of the reasons that he manages to be as accurate as he is: the fact that when conditions change he is not forced by ideology or vanity to pretend that they haven't. Case in point: he goes into ritual self-excoriation when he gets a major storm prediction wrong. Good luck finding an example of a scientist on the warmist side admitting error in this way, or any way. As I said before, Bastardi earns the money that Accuweather's many private clients pay for his forecasts. Taking potshots at him, Steve, says much more about you than it does about him. Yes I'm aware of that from Bastardi as I follow his blog entries. steve claimed Bastardi predicted El Nino would end by October, but I'll bet he doesn't cite a reference for it. Compare Bastardi's U.S. winter forecast to NOAA Note steve's lack of criticism of Met O whose long range forecasts were so bad they threw in the towel. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 8, 2010 17:02:43 GMT
Astromet: You started this post with a very, very, lengthy detailed forecast of global weather events over a three year period of time. I simply intend to follow your predictions over time to determine the accuracy of some of your more extreme statements. The elements of your prediction that are along the lines of ....paraphrase.. it will be very rainy in the spring, or.... it will be unusually cold during the winter, do not merit comment, however your predictions regarding ENSO, and oh,.... unusual spring 2010 flooding on the tributaries of the Mississippi.. "Rivers to watch are - * The Ohio River * The Arkansas River – stretching from central Kansas into the tip of northeastern Oklahoma through the state of Arkansas where the Arkansas River meets with the Mississippi River flowing through the state of western Mississippi * The Red River – stretching from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle * The Mississippi River" are certainly valid tests of your astrology based weather forecasting. The fact that you made a forecast does not mean it's valid. It's not Listen, the people who often complain and are critical of forecasts like you dartman do not know how to forecast, nor, understand how they are made, but you spend a lot of time offering up opinion which isn't valid. Long-range forecasts are mostly seasonal - which are written in exactly the way I write them using astrometeorology. I forecast seasonal and longer-range climate conditions using astronomic principles. Others do the same, like Piers Corbyn in the UK. I am in the United States. There is nothing "extreme" in how we forecast. Astrometeorology has been around for centuries, and astrology is where meteorology originated, as astrologers such as Ptolemy, Galileo, Kepler, Newton, Franklin, and others forecasted astronomically. Learn the history of meteorology before wading into this area as a surface-feeder, wading in ankle-deep water with pithy comments and opinion that isn't valid, okay? If you don't like the forecasts, then by all means, jump in and forecast yourself, that is, if you have the skills to try, and so far, you haven't. The fact that you're spending so much time on this means that we are good at what we do. And, as I've said, forecasting is not a perfect science. I range around 85% in accuracy, and higher when I have the time to cover the entire North American CONUS. If you are unaware that astronomic motions and conditions causes climate and weather conditions on Earth, then you've forgotten that the Earth is a planet you happen to inhabit. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 8, 2010 17:16:44 GMT
steve, I'm still waiting for the quote by Bastardi that El Nino would end last October. At the risk of seeming fair, Joe Bastardi did write on October 1 the following: "Now, the SOI is a huge factor in my overall scale as 30 and 90 are in the mix, along with the MEI enso 3.4, enso 1.2 Indian Ocean Dipole, glaam, my hidden ace, Lima Peru. ALL these say this Nino is reacting to the pattern, not causing the pattern to react, though there is some feedback, it is merely one of many players and is being controlled by larger scale factors, all of which argue for its demise as the winter progresses." So, he did not say that the Nino was going to disappear on the spot in October but that it should unravel during the winter. He was arguably caught out to some extent with that. However, anyone who follows Bastardi's work will agree that he is the first to acknowledge when he makes a mistake. That is one of the reasons that he manages to be as accurate as he is: the fact that when conditions change he is not forced by ideology or vanity to pretend that they haven't. Case in point: he goes into ritual self-excoriation when he gets a major storm prediction wrong. Good luck finding an example of a scientist on the warmist side admitting error in this way, or any way. As I said before, Bastardi earns the money that Accuweather's many private clients pay for his forecasts. Taking potshots at him, Steve, says much more about you than it does about him. I agree. Joe Bastardi is a good conventional meteorologist, and he is genuine, which I like. What is so interesting about people who complain, and are critical is that most of them want to be forecasters, but spend far too much time being jealous of true forecasters who actually do the hard work required. Forecasting is very difficult, most of all because of the fluidity of the Earth's atmosphere, and the fact that weather is constant, which is because of the revolution of the planets, including the earth. All the planets, the Sun, the Moon, etc., are always in motion, and so is the weather. There are a lot of amateurs and wannabe forecasters out there who spend too much time being critical but have not earned the right to be because they cannot forecast. They whine, and complain, but for some strange reason, they "talk the talk, but do not walk the walk" - that is, they do not forecast - especially in public, so, obviously, they feel free to attack others like Bastardi, but, they won't publish their forecasts where others can see just how qualified they are to be critical. All forecasters always "bust" - that is part of the business of forecasting. But, when you hear anyone complain that a forecaster missed this, or missed that, then you know that the person being critical doesn't know anything about forecasting, because, if they did, then they would know that it is part of the landscape of forecasting. I've learned just as much from "busts," as they call it, as I have from my successes. That is part of how good forecasters learn to improve their techniques. We learn from our mistakes as much as our "hits" - which is a part of the business of forecasting. Those who are critical obviously are wannabes, who spent far too much time pointing the finger at true forecasters than actually doing some quality forecasting themselves. You can tell by the way the twerps write, whine and complain, as if missing a forecast means that the forecaster will never be correct again. That goes to prove that the person who does this doesn't know anything about meteorology and forecasting at all. Because, if they did, then they would know that it is a part of the business of forecasting. No one hits a home-run every single time at the plate. No one throws a strike with every single pitch thrown. But, the true players succeed by stepping out on the field and being consistent as professionals, not perfect, but consistent, and those are true forecasters. The complainers, well, they aren't players. They just whine. That isn't forecasting, not even close. |
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Post by steve on Apr 8, 2010 18:11:31 GMT
At the risk of seeming fair, Joe Bastardi did write on October 1 the following: "Now, the SOI is a huge factor in my overall scale as 30 and 90 are in the mix, along with the MEI enso 3.4, enso 1.2 Indian Ocean Dipole, glaam, my hidden ace, Lima Peru. ALL these say this Nino is reacting to the pattern, not causing the pattern to react, though there is some feedback, it is merely one of many players and is being controlled by larger scale factors, all of which argue for its demise as the winter progresses." So, he did not say that the Nino was going to disappear on the spot in October but that it should unravel during the winter. He was arguably caught out to some extent with that. However, anyone who follows Bastardi's work will agree that he is the first to acknowledge when he makes a mistake. That is one of the reasons that he manages to be as accurate as he is: the fact that when conditions change he is not forced by ideology or vanity to pretend that they haven't. Case in point: he goes into ritual self-excoriation when he gets a major storm prediction wrong. Good luck finding an example of a scientist on the warmist side admitting error in this way, or any way. As I said before, Bastardi earns the money that Accuweather's many private clients pay for his forecasts. Taking potshots at him, Steve, says much more about you than it does about him. Yes I'm aware of that from Bastardi as I follow his blog entries. steve claimed Bastardi predicted El Nino would end by October, but I'll bet he doesn't cite a reference for it. Compare Bastardi's U.S. winter forecast to NOAA Note steve's lack of criticism of Met O whose long range forecasts were so bad they threw in the towel. Magellan. I meant that in October he predicted that El Niño would end soon, not that he predicted that El Niño would end in October. He said something like "already the Nino 1.2 is back to normal...". I can't find the quote I found the other day (it was on some ski website). I found this on Accuweather though: www.accuweather.com/blogs/weathermatrix/story/21063/does-october-snow-portend-bad-northeast-winter.aspMEI from Sep/Oct: .999 Oct/Nov 1.039 Nov/Dec 1.084 Dec/Jan 1.157 Jan/Feb 1.502 Feb/Mar 1.383 and for Sigurdur, I note that they said: Well Sigurdur has been complaining about the cold all winter - I don't know what the stats for N Dakota were though. I only criticised Bastardi because he was bragging heavily about his "success" in predicting the El Niño, and using it to support his prediction for a fading El Niño now (which seems to be a slam dunk???). But he forgot his failure. Otherwise, I don't really know who Bastardi is. Bragging about an individual seasonal forecast success is a mugs game for anyone. If he has more skill than others in the long run then he has something to brag about. The number of private clients is no guide. Some people are daft enough to pay for a Corbyn forecast for goodness sake! |
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 8, 2010 20:28:41 GMT
Steve:
I will get the numbers. North Dakota was veryyyyy cold in December, Jan, Feb. Average.
Then March came along and we were 7.0F above average. The main reason for that was the last two weeks of March were cloud covered most every day and the lows were not very cold.
April is running above average at this time.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 9, 2010 18:18:01 GMT
Yes I'm aware of that from Bastardi as I follow his blog entries. steve claimed Bastardi predicted El Nino would end by October, but I'll bet he doesn't cite a reference for it. Compare Bastardi's U.S. winter forecast to NOAA Note steve's lack of criticism of Met O whose long range forecasts were so bad they threw in the towel. Magellan. I meant that in October he predicted that El Niño would end soon, not that he predicted that El Niño would end in October. He said something like "already the Nino 1.2 is back to normal...". I can't find the quote I found the other day (it was on some ski website). I found this on Accuweather though: www.accuweather.com/blogs/weathermatrix/story/21063/does-october-snow-portend-bad-northeast-winter.aspMEI from Sep/Oct: .999 Oct/Nov 1.039 Nov/Dec 1.084 Dec/Jan 1.157 Jan/Feb 1.502 Feb/Mar 1.383 and for Sigurdur, I note that they said: Well Sigurdur has been complaining about the cold all winter - I don't know what the stats for N Dakota were though. I only criticised Bastardi because he was bragging heavily about his "success" in predicting the El Niño, and using it to support his prediction for a fading El Niño now (which seems to be a slam dunk???). But he forgot his failure. Otherwise, I don't really know who Bastardi is. Bragging about an individual seasonal forecast success is a mugs game for anyone. If he has more skill than others in the long run then he has something to brag about. The number of private clients is no guide. Some people are daft enough to pay for a Corbyn forecast for goodness sake! Here I have to agree with Steve on parts of this one. I did not know Bastardi predicted El Nino, because I had forecasted El Nino's arrival back in 2006 but did not see anyone else do this - even up to the year 2008. One of the problems in forecasting is bragging, which isn't professional, nor healthy for the science. I let my astrometeorological forecasts stand, and the climate and weather will prove how much is accurate, and how much the forecast is not. Another problem in meteorology is that far too many people are trying to make a name for themselves, hawk off the forecasts of others, and then say they were the ones who forecasted events such as El Nino. There's a lot of jealousy, sniping, and wannabes in weather forecasting that is not healthy at all, and only goes to show that the majority are merely interested in ego, and making names for themselves rather than doing the real work of forecasting. I try to maintain an 85% rate of accuracy in my long-range climate & weather forecasting. This comes from several decades of hard work practicing astrometeorology. I know that Piers Corbyn is an excellent long-range forecaster who does quality work from the UK, and he doesn't receive half the respect he should get as a forecaster. However, if one goes back in time to see who forecasted El Nino, you will find few names of those who actually did. I didn't see Bastardi forecast El Nino several years ago for late 2009-2010 as I had forecasted astronomically. Private clients do pay for long-range forecasts for a very good reason. This is because NOAA, the UK Met, and other large organizations do not have a good track record of seasonal or long-range forecasting at all, and private clients who require outlines of what the weather and climate will be like months and perhaps years in advance know that only long-range forecasters can provide this service. There is a difference between weather reporting, which I've done plenty reporting on as a journalist, which is short-range, daily to five-day weather reports - to those that are monthly, seasonal, or climate forecasting beyond six months or more. The more advanced forecasters do seasonal, and climate forecasting, which is done by astronomical means, and requires a profound understanding of what causes weather on Earth. There are few skilled forecasters in this advanced area. The majority are in the short-range weather reporting and confuse effects as "causes" which is why they are unable to forecast accurately. So, private clients actually is a good guide of how successful a long-range forecaster is seen, and this is because conventional meteorological & climatological forecasters are unable to forecast long-range weather & climate. |
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 10, 2010 15:43:38 GMT
www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gifLook at the cooler water in the eastern Indian ocean. +Indian ocean dipole It shows the likely development of La-Nina for 2010/11. The main thing I'm looking at is the PDO and NAO and how they will shape up in the coming months. it would probably explain a few things. El-Nino by itself puts the colder air in the south of the USA, the -NAO and -PDO amplified the effect. As a result is was at times warmer in Western Canada than it was in Central Florida. With the likely La-Nina coming next winter I would think Florida will have a nice winter 2010/11. Here are the factors and what the effects are on the rest of 2010. -PDO: cooler summer on the west coast and a Hot summer on the plains and Canadian prairies Neutral NAO: Hot spells in the Midwest, northeast, maritime, and eastern coast, nothing to honk about but way better than the last two years. Shift to La-Nina: winter is late in the east and early in the west.
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Post by magellan on Apr 10, 2010 23:22:20 GMT
Yes I'm aware of that from Bastardi as I follow his blog entries. steve claimed Bastardi predicted El Nino would end by October, but I'll bet he doesn't cite a reference for it. Compare Bastardi's U.S. winter forecast to NOAA Note steve's lack of criticism of Met O whose long range forecasts were so bad they threw in the towel. Magellan. I meant that in October he predicted that El Niño would end soon, not that he predicted that El Niño would end in October. He said something like "already the Nino 1.2 is back to normal...". I can't find the quote I found the other day (it was on some ski website). I found this on Accuweather though: www.accuweather.com/blogs/weathermatrix/story/21063/does-october-snow-portend-bad-northeast-winter.aspMEI from Sep/Oct: .999 Oct/Nov 1.039 Nov/Dec 1.084 Dec/Jan 1.157 Jan/Feb 1.502 Feb/Mar 1.383 and for Sigurdur, I note that they said: Well Sigurdur has been complaining about the cold all winter - I don't know what the stats for N Dakota were though. I only criticised Bastardi because he was bragging heavily about his "success" in predicting the El Niño, and using it to support his prediction for a fading El Niño now (which seems to be a slam dunk???). But he forgot his failure. Otherwise, I don't really know who Bastardi is. Bragging about an individual seasonal forecast success is a mugs game for anyone. If he has more skill than others in the long run then he has something to brag about. The number of private clients is no guide. Some people are daft enough to pay for a Corbyn forecast for goodness sake! Well steve, you said what you said and it was for effect. Bastardi routinely gobsmacks NOAA. This winter was a complete bust for NOAA if you'd bother checking. Since you don't follow his forecasts, anything you say is merely subjective bias. As for Corbyn, who are you comparing him to, Met O and their 'super duper $$$ climate models? Have you bothered checking into Corbyn's forecast accuracy or is your sarcasm more rhetoric than fact? Ah, your opinion of him would be possibly because he thinks AGW is a crock of BS? Nah, impossible. Every couple years it seems Met O announces a new and improved version guaranteed to be right, yet they have been consistently wrong. If they only had more computer power, which translates they want to raid the treasury. OTOH you think climate models are spot on 50-100 years out......amazing blind faith. If he has more skill than others in the long run then he has something to brag about. The number of private clients is no guide. Yes, every business that relies on accurate forecasts likes flushing money down the toilet in order to lose more money brought on by faulty forecasts. Damn those greedy big spending capitalists! |
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Post by twawki on Apr 11, 2010 9:25:52 GMT
Well Joe Daleo at icecap thinks like 2007 weve hit a warming blip then its cold cold cold downhill to a la nina www.twawki.com/?p=5225 |
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Post by dartman321 on Apr 13, 2010 16:30:48 GMT
From the current NOAA Enso report:
"2010 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010, with a return to ENSO-neutral by summer 2010."
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 15, 2010 7:00:47 GMT
Latest ENSO wrap up statement out www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have continued to cool over the past fortnight, though remain above El Niño thresholds. Temperatures in all the main ENSO monitoring areas are now less than 1°C above normal, a situation which last occurred in late September 2009. Below the ocean surface, temperatures have also reduced. Cooler than normal conditions are now apparent below much of the equatorial Pacific, with a number of indicators at their lowest levels since March 2009. In the atmosphere, the trade winds are near normal, while cloudiness near the date-line has reduced over the past month. The 30-day SOI value went positive in early April for the first time since September of last year, while its current value of +6.2 is the highest 30-day SOI since late June 2009. The decline in the current El Niño event is consistent with climate model predictions which suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures will cool steadily over the coming months, returning to neutral levels by early winter 2010. As autumn is a typical transitional period for ENSO, model predictions of El Niño through and beyond autumn are generally less reliable than at other times of the year. |
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Post by scpg02 on Apr 15, 2010 14:19:46 GMT
The decline in the current El Niño event is consistent with climate model predictions I've noticed a trend lately to convince us that the climate models are accurate. |
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 25, 2010 2:51:07 GMT
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtmlwww.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gifIs the growth of that cooler area just south of the equator the main driver behind the El-Nino values weakening? I thought El-Nino weakens to nothing, not getting pushed aside(the blue area appears to be pushing north). Could this be a El-Nino La-Nina hybrid? as you can see the upper warm area is still in place and even shows a tad bit of growth in the last 2 weeks(first link) Also because of the off balance nature of the warm water could it be driven north over the summer? Also is it normal for for warm El-Nino water to get pushed aside? before
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