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Post by AstroMet on Apr 3, 2010 15:22:11 GMT
The problem is that it's difficult for anyone to know what the correlation is and how it interleaves with the climate system. Looking at plate tectonics, you'd THINK the plates would move steadily...and in some places they actually do. But for the most part the plates show stop-skip motion with wildly varying periods. It is quite likely that an El Nino simply cannot last for much more than a year because of its own impacts drastically changing the energy distribution around the globe. This is an interesting point. The El Nino is a Kelvin wave of warm surface water that returns to the East as the Easterly trade-winds that had piled up the warm water in the West Pacific have dropped. So if the trade winds _remain_ low for a period can you have a 'second returning Kelvin wave'? This isn't possible as the sea level has now equalized and the warm surface waters have been spread out and cooled. So although the _conditions_ are the same for an El Nino to start - it cannot as it has already been released once. So pointing at the SOI and saying these are El Nino conditions may be true but there is no West Pacific warm pool to move back - its already empty. Astromet may be right that the El Nino conditions - the SOI - will be in place for a long time, but that may make little difference to global weather as there will be no Kelvin wave possible until flat or La Nina conditions allow the trade-winds to 'load' the El Nino gun again. In the mean time - the warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific are spread thin. This could lead to more ocean heat being lost. In my forecast Nautonnier, I've also called for the sunspot activity to pick up in 2010, with the start of Solar Cycle #24. We will see this come true this year, and continue into 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 with many more sunspots of this new cycle. This is the closing phase of the 36-year global warming cycle that began in 1980-81. With this phase, I expect the world's climate to be active more than normal, and this ENSO phase we are in currently shows that my forecast of ENSO back in 2006 was correct. This spring, and summer will see warmer than normal temperatures for many regions, along with the continued severe drought conditions that we see in China, as a result of the reversal of the trade winds, common under ENSO. We've already seen the results of ENSO with the 2010 winter season in the northern hemisphere. After the winter of 2011, which will arrive late in the northern hemisphere (late January/early Feb. 2011) we will see winter stick around in the months of March & April next year - with La Nina - a cold, icy spring is on tap in 2011 to be followed by a warmer than normal summer and a traditional autumn season of 2011. This coming fall season is wet, and warmer than normal - a prolonged autumn in 2010 leading to a late winter season. This is all caused astronomically, with the Pacific Ocean's ENSO dictating the climate conditions for about 50% of the planet. |
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Post by magellan on Apr 3, 2010 17:10:06 GMT
We can review this forecast from 2006. I don't know who the astromet forecaster is, but its pretty clear the forecast missed the broadside of the barn. www.hardcoreweather.com/newsite/hcw/archive/index.php/t-6879.htmlIn particular: At this present time, the Earth is seeing a Solar minima cycle, but all that is about to change with the coming of what should be one of the strongest solar maxima in 50 years that will begin next year and peak during the years 2010, 2011 and 2012. While the talk about "global warming" will certainly continue, and increase during the next several years, what is most important is the health of the Earth's magnetic field which protects our planet from the life-giving, but also damaging solar winds, and its cosmic rays. The Sun is expected to begin to begin maxima cycle either late this year (2006) or early in 2007. According to my calculations, we can expect to witness another ENSO event between 2006-2011. What is frightening about this is the fact that the strength of the Sun will be much stronger than that of 1958 - and with the combinational effects of the positions of the planets relative to the Earth - it appears that storms on Earth will be much larger, widespread, and more powerful. All wrong. Of course there were two El Nino events since 2006.....nothing unusual about that, and depending how one defines "storm" (ACE dropped to 30 year low last year). Sorry, but this is looking to be more and more like Texas Sharpshooting. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 4, 2010 1:45:31 GMT
We can review this forecast from 2006. I don't know who the astromet forecaster is, but its pretty clear the forecast missed the broadside of the barn. www.hardcoreweather.com/newsite/hcw/archive/index.php/t-6879.htmlIn particular: At this present time, the Earth is seeing a Solar minima cycle, but all that is about to change with the coming of what should be one of the strongest solar maxima in 50 years that will begin next year and peak during the years 2010, 2011 and 2012. While the talk about "global warming" will certainly continue, and increase during the next several years, what is most important is the health of the Earth's magnetic field which protects our planet from the life-giving, but also damaging solar winds, and its cosmic rays. The Sun is expected to begin to begin maxima cycle either late this year (2006) or early in 2007. According to my calculations, we can expect to witness another ENSO event between 2006-2011. What is frightening about this is the fact that the strength of the Sun will be much stronger than that of 1958 - and with the combinational effects of the positions of the planets relative to the Earth - it appears that storms on Earth will be much larger, widespread, and more powerful. All wrong. Of course there were two El Nino events since 2006.....nothing unusual about that, and depending how one defines "storm" (ACE dropped to 30 year low last year). Sorry, but this is looking to be more and more like Texas Sharpshooting. Where is this all wrong? Last time I checked, the date on the calendar says April 2010, right? Also, there was no El Nino in the last two years. This ENSO began in late 2009, and continues to this day. Moreover, the next solar cycle has started, and, 2011 and beyond hasn't arrived as yet the last time I checked - unless, of course, you are writing to us from the future Magellan, in that case, it is you doing the "Texas sharpshooting." Jeez. It takes all kinds these days... |
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Post by dartman321 on Apr 4, 2010 2:38:02 GMT
Astromet, or is it "The Astromet"? Of course the planet is not a closed system. Neither is my sailboat on a leisurely cruise in the Sea of Cortez. However, just as my sailboat is not affected by the launch of an new aircraft carrier from the shipyards of Norfolk, Va., our climate is not affected by the alignment of stars in distant galaxies, with the planets in our solar system. " Post hoc ergo propter hoc" is not a logical foundation upon which forecasts of future climate events should be based.
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 7, 2010 6:55:32 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 7, 2010 13:07:02 GMT
Come now.....what would ole Joe know?
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Post by steve on Apr 7, 2010 14:10:51 GMT
Come now.....what would ole Joe know? Joe predicted the end of the El Niño in October - just before it ramped up again. Predict something for long enough and it may come true. Even global cooling  |
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Post by woodstove on Apr 7, 2010 15:24:55 GMT
Come now.....what would ole Joe know? Joe predicted the end of the El Niño in October - just before it ramped up again. Predict something for long enough and it may come true. Even global cooling Bastardi's long-term forecasts are way more accurate than NOAA's. His short-term forecasts are way more accurate than the National Weather Service's. He has great numbers of private clients with significant financial exposure pertaining to weather. They are not paying him because he's a fool. Perhaps they should be paying you, Steve, since your knowledge of the ocean-atmosphere system far out-classes his? |
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Post by magellan on Apr 7, 2010 17:07:31 GMT
Come now.....what would ole Joe know? Joe predicted the end of the El Niño in October - just before it ramped up again. Predict something for long enough and it may come true. Even global cooling Please cite your reference for Bastardi predicting the end of El Nino in October; a direct quote in full context. |
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Post by poitsplace on Apr 7, 2010 17:21:58 GMT
Astromet, or is it "The Astromet"? Of course the planet is not a closed system. Neither is my sailboat on a leisurely cruise in the Sea of Cortez. However, just as my sailboat is not affected by the launch of an new aircraft carrier from the shipyards of Norfolk, Va., our climate is not affected by the alignment of stars in distant galaxies, with the planets in our solar system. " Post hoc ergo propter hoc" is not a logical foundation upon which forecasts of future climate events should be based. Well it is connected...just not in any meaningful or reproducible way. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 7, 2010 21:06:53 GMT
Astromet, or is it "The Astromet"? Of course the planet is not a closed system. Neither is my sailboat on a leisurely cruise in the Sea of Cortez. However, just as my sailboat is not affected by the launch of an new aircraft carrier from the shipyards of Norfolk, Va., our climate is not affected by the alignment of stars in distant galaxies, with the planets in our solar system. " Post hoc ergo propter hoc" is not a logical foundation upon which forecasts of future climate events should be based. Perhaps but I fail to see where your opinion has anything to do with the realities of the astronomical causes of the world's climate and weather dartman. Try using more logic, and less opinion, and learn much more about astronomical forecasting before assuming that because you have an opinion that that then means it is valid. It is not. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 7, 2010 21:08:30 GMT
I don't know what Joe Bastardi uses to forecast long-range. However, if it is not based on astronomic principles, then it isn't long-range in the slightest. |
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 8, 2010 2:13:49 GMT
Have you actually thought of how particles and energy coming from outside the solar system can effect the climate of earth.
Here are a few things I'm noting
- The sun was weaker hundred-millions of years ago yet we did not have a single ice cap on earth at times.
The real cause of our finicky climate is the continents themselves blocking a lot of ocean circulation.
- Interstellar dust, during solar minimum it may get to earth, depositing energized particles into our atmosphere, obviously that will have an effect.
- Magnetic reversal, we are hundreds of thousands of years overdue and signs are showing our late reversal is in progress.
My belief is that climate of the earth is controlled by countless factors. Warming happens when more factors lean to warming than cooling, and vice-versa
From 1998 onward more than 75% of the factors were leaning to warming. Currently 55% are leaning to cooling(new coolers are the -PDO,-AO and the Sun)
Co2, Methane, and land use change are still leaning heavily towards warming.
Once we get into the next solar max we should see 60% of the factors lean towards warming, as more gradual warming than we are used to. Around 2020 we may see a 70% lean towards cooling that will last a few decades and by 2070 we should be back at pre-industrial levels
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Post by dartman321 on Apr 8, 2010 4:54:54 GMT
Astromet: You started this post with a very, very, lengthy detailed forecast of global weather events over a three year period of time. I simply intend to follow your predictions over time to determine the accuracy of some of your more extreme statements. The elements of your prediction that are along the lines of ....paraphrase.. it will be very rainy in the spring, or.... it will be unusually cold during the winter, do not merit comment, however your predictions regarding ENSO, and oh,.... unusual spring 2010 flooding on the tributaries of the Mississippi..
"Rivers to watch are -
* The Ohio River
* The Arkansas River – stretching from central Kansas into the tip of northeastern Oklahoma through the state of Arkansas where the Arkansas River meets with the Mississippi River flowing through the state of western Mississippi
* The Red River – stretching from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle
* The Mississippi River"
are certainly valid tests of your astrology based weather forecasting.
The fact that you made a forecast does not mean it's valid. It's not
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Post by magellan on Apr 8, 2010 13:11:21 GMT
We can review this forecast from 2006. I don't know who the astromet forecaster is, but its pretty clear the forecast missed the broadside of the barn. www.hardcoreweather.com/newsite/hcw/archive/index.php/t-6879.htmlIn particular: At this present time, the Earth is seeing a Solar minima cycle, but all that is about to change with the coming of what should be one of the strongest solar maxima in 50 years that will begin next year and peak during the years 2010, 2011 and 2012. While the talk about "global warming" will certainly continue, and increase during the next several years, what is most important is the health of the Earth's magnetic field which protects our planet from the life-giving, but also damaging solar winds, and its cosmic rays. The Sun is expected to begin to begin maxima cycle either late this year (2006) or early in 2007. According to my calculations, we can expect to witness another ENSO event between 2006-2011. What is frightening about this is the fact that the strength of the Sun will be much stronger than that of 1958 - and with the combinational effects of the positions of the planets relative to the Earth - it appears that storms on Earth will be much larger, widespread, and more powerful. All wrong. Of course there were two El Nino events since 2006.....nothing unusual about that, and depending how one defines "storm" (ACE dropped to 30 year low last year). Sorry, but this is looking to be more and more like Texas Sharpshooting. Where is this all wrong? Last time I checked, the date on the calendar says April 2010, right? Also, there was no El Nino in the last two years. This ENSO began in late 2009, and continues to this day. Moreover, the next solar cycle has started, and, 2011 and beyond hasn't arrived as yet the last time I checked - unless, of course, you are writing to us from the future Magellan, in that case, it is you doing the "Texas sharpshooting." Jeez. It takes all kinds these days... I simply quoted what an astromet (presumably you) predicted about SC24 in 2006 which was eerily identical to Dikpati's SC24 forecast, and also close to Hathaway's from NASA, which IIRC he thought it started in April 2006. After several remakes, he eventually conceded his forecasts were wrong. With due respect, your forecast was basically the same as Dikpati. It wasn't anything novel or unique. To forecast another ENSO event occurring between 2006-2011 is also nothing special. In 2006 El Nino was already forming. You have also said for two years you forecast this 2010 El Nino......so did Met O and others, and as far as I know did not use your methods. This El Nino is a Modaki and nowhere near 1998 in persistence or intensity. Weekly NINO 3.4 SST is now below 1 and the 3 month average should fall rapidly for FMA, approaching 1 or below. The SOI is firmly in the positive with the 30 day avg now exceeding 1.0. Your forecast calls for this El Nino to persist well into Winter and next Spring, correct me if that's wrong. I'm not into forecasting, but the numbers just aren't adding up to a 2010 scorcher and looks to me we're about to see a big drop in TLT beginning in June, possibly July, and certainly by Fall. April will verify this ain't 1998. Any prospects for 2010 being the 1998 bunker buster has already failed IMO, at least for satellite and NINO. For surface station reports, well, they'll end up wherever the data manipulators need them. Also, without intentionally piling on, your forecast for 2009 summer was a complete bust. Living in the Great Lakes region, I can tell you not only was it not "warmer than normal", we didn't have a summer, period. NOAA also said it would be a "warmer than normal" summer. So, although I have respect for anyone willing to stick their neck out by making predictions, if you wish to establish credibility, the only way is to compare to past forecasts, line by line, and that's why I searched for 'astromet forecasts'. By acknowledging error with possible explanations helps to gain credibility. |
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