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Post by woodstove on Mar 22, 2010 17:24:55 GMT
I don't know what you heard, but I have El Nino though the entire year of 2010 - not just through summer. I also forecasted floods in my long-range forecast for this spring before anyone else did last year. I don't see where I'm "backing away" from anything? Read my forecast again. OK: "In forecasting ENSO for 2010 several years ago, astronomically, what I saw was a continued influence of El Nino through the winter season in the northern hemisphere..." |
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 23, 2010 7:00:27 GMT
Joe Bastardi seems to be increasingly confident of the decline in the current El Nino
"It is interesting to see how rapid the El Nino collapses on the models. I get a kick out of some sites saying its hanging on. Already the nino 1,2 values are back to normal and the collapse is as plain as it was the El Nino coming on last year at this time. Of course, that was not "declared" until midsummer, so let's see if I am giving you the jump again."
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Post by steve on Mar 23, 2010 18:15:31 GMT
Joe Bastardi predicted a weak El Niño last summer, and last October predicted it would fade through the winter. That last prediction was also made when Nino 1.2 was cold.
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Post by itsonlysteam on Mar 23, 2010 22:08:09 GMT
I still think the Dalton 'Type' Minimum being recognized by Solar Scientists will drive everything. The current El Nino was forecast a few months ago by a few with most saying it would fade over the beginning of the year and others couching that with it could last to the early summer. Almost all expect La Nina conditions to take hold over the remainder of the year. I agree with the general idea of this thread except that from Hung's 2007 paper to numerous Solar Scientists now ... Hung ... gltrs.grc.nasa.gov/reports/2007/TM-2007-214817.pdfAGU/Second Presentation ... eventcg.com/clients/agu/fm09/U34A.html... many expect Solar Cycle 24 to be the weekest cycle observed since we've had the capability to look at it with detail. They are picking up very unusual circulation in the sun which according to Hathaway's models would accelerate activity but now he says it appears to brake activity ... from very recent observations. So, given we haven't seen a Sun doing much since the peak of cycle 23 which was muted and longer that 22 and 21 ... In other words the cooling has already started and how quickly we cool will depend on the ENSO and I'll take this El Nino lasting into 2011 but that would be highly unusual in a Cold PDO from my understanding. I'll go with Bastardi's prediction ... www.accuweather.com/world-bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather |
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Post by dartman321 on Mar 24, 2010 18:58:42 GMT
I just want to be very clear about Astromets prediction....."For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, "
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Post by itsonlysteam on Mar 24, 2010 21:39:17 GMT
dartman321 ... quite a prediction considering what has happened this year where I live. With an El Nino we had the coldest day on record (-45C) and now March going out like a lion. Last extended El Nino we had a Christmas with no snow and an April with Trees budding out. It seems these Kelvin waves are puffing like a wimp against the wall of Arctic Air. Then again we don't really have too much information on an El Nino in a cold PDO and a cycle before that your into the Gleissberg Minimum which should be minor even compared to this Landscheidt 'Grand' Minimum. In other words ... I can wait for the La Nina to exhibit itself in this Cold PDO. I personally hope despite all hope that Astromet is right  |
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Post by poitsplace on Mar 25, 2010 4:06:55 GMT
The problem is that it's difficult for anyone to know what the correlation is and how it interleaves with the climate system. Looking at plate tectonics, you'd THINK the plates would move steadily...and in some places they actually do. But for the most part the plates show stop-skip motion with wildly varying periods. It is quite likely that an El Nino simply cannot last for much more than a year because of its own impacts drastically changing the energy distribution around the globe.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 25, 2010 11:43:50 GMT
The problem is that it's difficult for anyone to know what the correlation is and how it interleaves with the climate system. Looking at plate tectonics, you'd THINK the plates would move steadily...and in some places they actually do. But for the most part the plates show stop-skip motion with wildly varying periods. It is quite likely that an El Nino simply cannot last for much more than a year because of its own impacts drastically changing the energy distribution around the globe. This is an interesting point. The El Nino is a Kelvin wave of warm surface water that returns to the East as the Easterly trade-winds that had piled up the warm water in the West Pacific have dropped. So if the trade winds _remain_ low for a period can you have a 'second returning Kelvin wave'? This isn't possible as the sea level has now equalized and the warm surface waters have been spread out and cooled. So although the _conditions_ are the same for an El Nino to start - it cannot as it has already been released once. So pointing at the SOI and saying these are El Nino conditions may be true but there is no West Pacific warm pool to move back - its already empty. Astromet may be right that the El Nino conditions - the SOI - will be in place for a long time, but that may make little difference to global weather as there will be no Kelvin wave possible until flat or La Nina conditions allow the trade-winds to 'load' the El Nino gun again. In the mean time - the warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific are spread thin. This could lead to more ocean heat being lost. |
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Post by jurinko on Mar 30, 2010 14:16:06 GMT
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Post by dartman321 on Mar 30, 2010 15:30:37 GMT
Autonannier: I'm suprised that you would "morph" Astromet's prediction, suggesting that he was referring to "the El Nino condition". Astromet touts the accuracy of his psuedo science "ASTROMETEOROLOGY". He started this string reminding us, in January of 2010, of extensive predictions he made in December of 2008. He, in other forums, suggests that stars in other galaxies directly and measurably influence our planet. I quote, "The planetary conjunctions to the four Royal stars forecasts a powerful series of world events over the next several months that continue into the year 2008. The outlet fixed star conjunction is that of the Moon and transiting North Lunar Node in tropical Pisces, where we find the "watcher of the south" ~ the star Fomalhaut. We can expect events along the lines of this fixed star to take place, which includes, among other events, seismic activity, large magnitude earthquakes where the lunar eclipse was seen, and major events taking place on the world's oceans, involving large ships and sea-going vessels. " Huh?  ? I am an extreme skeptic. Astromet predicts local weather conditions years in advance. He has hinged many of those predictions on his claim of a strong El Nino into 2012. Specifically, "For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012,.." (Note the word dominate") and... "The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012) and precipitation patterns will greatly affect seasonal forecasts during these years to the extent where forecasters will have to use ENSO models to adjust their seasonal forecasts for annual rain, drought, and snowfall amounts in North America, and elsewhere." Let's not soften these clear statements. |
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Post by poitsplace on Mar 30, 2010 15:32:19 GMT
What the heck is up with the gulf stream? I realize that's an anomaly plot...and that it's likely still warmish and moving. I don't usually pay attention to the gulf stream, any long term followers of the SST anomalies in that area know how normal this is? (at least for the satellite era)
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Post by msphar on Mar 30, 2010 16:05:26 GMT
I don't like to mess with the gulf stream. I tried to sail across it one night a few years ago and got lost several miles North of where I thought I was. Spent almost all the next day getting back on course. It is one powerful force of nature.
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Post by magellan on Mar 30, 2010 16:33:32 GMT
NINO 3.4 never exceeded 2C and is likely to fall below 1C in April. May should be into the traditional plunge in SST. |
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Post by jurinko on Mar 30, 2010 18:17:15 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 3, 2010 15:12:37 GMT
I just want to be very clear about Astromets prediction....."For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, " There's no need for you to be "very clear," - I've already done that in my long-range forecast, as I was the one who forecasted this current ENSO state several years ago back in 2006. ENSO will dominate these years due to astronomic configurations, which is the cause of all climate and weather on earth. Why you would treat the Earth as some kind of closed system apart from the rest of the solar system is beyond me. You do realize that the Earth is a planet dartman? |
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? I am an extreme skeptic. Astromet predicts local weather conditions years in advance. He has hinged many of those predictions on his claim of a strong El Nino into 2012. 