|
|
Post by hairball on Jul 16, 2011 2:49:23 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2011 2:51:54 GMT
Hairball:..............crap!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2011 2:52:43 GMT
I don't mean that disrespectfully....I mean what will happen if this forcast bears fruit.
Where I live....it means.........CRAP.....durn it.......another cold one.
|
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 16, 2011 2:54:18 GMT
![]() Hairball, hmm, what to make of the equatorial pacific? (is this a cycle or what?) What I read is that most models forecast 'El Nino neutral conditions' through the end of the year. |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2011 2:59:37 GMT
thermostat:
The IRI models show neutral but now have a negative bias. The OLV2 seems to have the best track record as of late, like the past two years.
I had read that they switched some of the parameters to a negative PDO phase as that is what we are in. Seems that switch is correct, while the others are stuck on AGW factors rather than real evidence.
As an aside, I use the IRI models in planning....to a point. They seem to miss North America quit badly tho compared to NOAA at this time.
|
|
|
|
Post by hairball on Jul 16, 2011 3:07:16 GMT
Sigurdur,
I hope it's wrong for all our sakes.
Thermostat,
That's just CPC's forecast - the average of all the models is about neutral until the end of the year.
I don't know if it's a cycle to be honest. Recently I've been wondering if ENSO is the equivalent of a coin-toss. It's certainly unpredictable in a similar way. If so it'll average out to zero on an infinitely long time scale, but with one coin-toss every 5 years or so there's ample room for ice-ages through sheer bad luck. Venus syndrome never seems to come up, somehow.
|
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 16, 2011 3:16:53 GMT
Sigurdur, I hope it's wrong for all our sakes. Thermostat, That's just CPC's forecast - the average of all the models is about neutral until the end of the year. I don't know if it's a cycle to be honest. Recently I've been wondering if ENSO is the equivalent of a coin-toss. It's certainly unpredictable in a similar way. If so it'll average out to zero on an infinitely long time scale, but with one coin-toss every 5 years or so there's ample room for ice-ages through sheer bad luck. Venus syndrome never seems to come up, somehow. hairball, let's not get our knickers in a twist about El Nino. There there... It's just a cycle. It's okay. |
|
|
|
Post by hairball on Jul 16, 2011 3:21:10 GMT
Thermostat,
Oh you think it's a cycle?
How long is this cycle - 30 years of mostly Niña then 30 years of mostly Niño?
|
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 16, 2011 3:30:53 GMT
Thermostat, Oh you think it's a cycle? How long is this cycle - 30 years of mostly Niña then 30 years of mostly Niño? hairball, whoa! my, my! calm down bro. |
|
|
|
Post by hairball on Jul 16, 2011 3:35:36 GMT
Oh, no, Thermostat, you misunderstand.
Please don't mistake my awe of a self-proclaimed scientist such as yourself for over-excitement.
I really want your expert opinion on this: you can get 2 El Niño's in a row or you can get 2 La Niñas in a row (at which point scientists start waffling about an impending Ice-Age).
What form does this cycle take? Since it certainly isn't El Niño-La Niña-El Niño-La Niña etc . . .
|
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 16, 2011 3:56:35 GMT
Oh, no, Thermostat, you misunderstand. Please don't mistake my awe of a self-proclaimed scientist such as yourself for over-excitement. I really want your expert opinion on this: you can get 2 El Niño's in a row or you can get 2 La Niñas in a row (at which point scientists start waffling about an impending Ice-Age). What form does this cycle take? Since it certainly isn't El Niño-La Niña-El Niño-La Niña etc . . . hairball, Amazing! Just how stupid are you? |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2011 4:06:22 GMT
Thermostat: He could be referring to the PDO cycle....here is a link to some interesting information. I do not vouch for the validity of it, but there are some heavy hitters here. earth-climate.com/ |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2011 4:06:58 GMT
Oh, no, Thermostat, you misunderstand. Please don't mistake my awe of a self-proclaimed scientist such as yourself for over-excitement. I really want your expert opinion on this: you can get 2 El Niño's in a row or you can get 2 La Niñas in a row (at which point scientists start waffling about an impending Ice-Age). What form does this cycle take? Since it certainly isn't El Niño-La Niña-El Niño-La Niña etc . . . hairball, Amazing! Just how stupid are you? Thermostat: I would think that he may put you to shame with an attitude like that. |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 16, 2011 4:14:49 GMT
hairball, Amazing! Just how stupid are you? Thermostat: I would think that he may put you to shame with an attitude like that. sigurdur, give me a break. I am the whipping boy on this forum. Whatever. But bullshit is bullshit. |
|
|
|
Post by hairball on Jul 16, 2011 4:19:27 GMT
Whipping boy? Do whipping boys traditionally dole out insults?
I asked you a simple question: you say that ENSO is a cycle; in what way do you think ENSO is a cycle?
You have no answer because you are morally and intellectually bankrupt.
|
|
