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Post by sigurdur on Aug 2, 2011 4:41:09 GMT
Yep......I live in the USA and live with the lingering effects of the past La Nina.
Thanks for the question and concer.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 2, 2011 4:47:21 GMT
Yep......I live in the USA and live with the lingering effects of the past La Nina. Thanks for the question and concer. Sigurdur, Okay, nothing to add regarding climate, got it. I think we are back to the weather service forecasts here, which favor ENSO neutral conditions, until we learn otherwise. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 2, 2011 4:49:21 GMT
Thermostat:
Yep.....we are back to climate and the model which has been correct for the past two La Nina's is predicting another La Nina.
So....the effect is that the favour of ENSO neutral conditoins is not the projected outcome.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 2, 2011 5:23:38 GMT
Thermostat: Yep.....we are back to climate and the model which has been correct for the past two La Nina's is predicting another La Nina. So....the effect is that the favour of ENSO neutral conditoins is not the projected outcome. Sigurdur, Now you lost me. Time will tell about ENSO. |
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ray
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Post by ray on Aug 2, 2011 16:10:59 GMT
I still think based on historical evidence, increased volcanism, svenmarks theory, cooling oceans we are in for a continuation of La Nina though not as strong as the first part - possibly till the end of the year then cyclicaly it will ebb back to neutral - not sure after that I don't see that. This ENSO is nearly a done deal. I forecasted it years in advance and also know that it is almost history. Some of the lessons we can learn from ENSO are to be prepared for climate events before they occur. Post ENSO, we are now transitioning back into a warmer-than-normal climate for several years though some will experience an anomalous cooler-year between 2011 and 2017. These anomalies are the calling cards of a new global cooling cycle that begins six years from now. However, in the meantime expect temperatures to be warmer-than-normal with spreading drought and less precipitation overall in various regions of the world, particularly those of southern regions. Northern regions continue to deal with cooler-than-normal temperatures, raised water tables and floods. This was the result of La Nina's power. theo, when you say "southern regions and northern regions" do you mean southern hemisphere and northern hemisphere or are you referring to the southern and northern regions of the u.s.? |
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 2, 2011 17:48:07 GMT
I don't see that. This ENSO is nearly a done deal. I forecasted it years in advance and also know that it is almost history. Some of the lessons we can learn from ENSO are to be prepared for climate events before they occur. Post ENSO, we are now transitioning back into a warmer-than-normal climate for several years though some will experience an anomalous cooler-year between 2011 and 2017. These anomalies are the calling cards of a new global cooling cycle that begins six years from now. However, in the meantime expect temperatures to be warmer-than-normal with spreading drought and less precipitation overall in various regions of the world, particularly those of southern regions. Northern regions continue to deal with cooler-than-normal temperatures, raised water tables and floods. This was the result of La Nina's power. theo, when you say "southern regions and northern regions" do you mean southern hemisphere and northern hemisphere or are you referring to the southern and northern regions of the u.s.? Hi Ray, Yes, I am referring to the northern/southern regions of the northern hemisphere. |
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Post by thermostat on Aug 4, 2011 2:38:04 GMT
Thermostat: Yep.....we are back to climate and the model which has been correct for the past two La Nina's is predicting another La Nina. So....the effect is that the favour of ENSO neutral conditoins is not the projected outcome. Sigurdur, It appears that you are 'lumping' various models into a single group. Models are common devices used in many areas of physics. They are not at all the same. In particular, models used with common issues like recurring cycles such as El Nino/La Nina, vs weather forecasts, vs climate models, are quite distinct. What is the difference/is there a difference? You ought to ask. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 4, 2011 3:06:25 GMT
Thermostat:
I do believe the topic of disucussion is the ENSO models. My response was in regard to them.
As far as models per se, most models in physics are modeling a known phenominum within known laws to obtain results with varying dynamics. They are simple models.
Climate models are trying to project something using some known physics incorporating ideas that are not proven with parameters not proven with forces in play that are not well understood. The results are highly variable, which is to be expected. What the important theme that all should agree on, is the outcomes are useless in the real world.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 4, 2011 3:23:01 GMT
Thermostat: I do believe the topic of disucussion is the ENSO models. My response was in regard to them. As far as models per se, most models in physics are modeling a known phenominum within known laws to obtain results with varying dynamics. They are simple models. Climate models are trying to project something using some known physics incorporating ideas that are not proven with parameters not proven with forces in play that are not well understood. The results are highly variable, which is to be expected. What the important theme that all should agree on, is the outcomes are useless in the real world. sigurdur, The climate models you question are a subset of contemporary physics in general that addresses complex phenomena. The physics of complexity. The objections you raise apply to this broader topic equally. |
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Post by thermostat on Aug 4, 2011 3:34:15 GMT
Thermostat: I do believe the topic of disucussion is the ENSO models. My response was in regard to them. As far as models per se, most models in physics are modeling a known phenominum within known laws to obtain results with varying dynamics. They are simple models. Climate models are trying to project something using some known physics incorporating ideas that are not proven with parameters not proven with forces in play that are not well understood. The results are highly variable, which is to be expected. What the important theme that all should agree on, is the outcomes are useless in the real world. Sigirdur, You wrote, "Climate models are trying to project something using some known physics incorporating ideas that are not proven with parameters not proven with forces in play that are not well understood. The results are highly variable, which is to be expected." What do you refer to as 'forces not well understood'? To clarify, climate models are physical descriptions of the natural world based on historical observations and well understood physical principals. The act of projecting invariably involves something 'unproven''fair enough. Understood? a great question. Forces in play? Got some new ones? |
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Post by icefisher on Aug 4, 2011 3:34:48 GMT
Climate models are trying to project something using some known physics incorporating ideas that are not proven with parameters not proven with forces in play that are not well understood. The results are highly variable, which is to be expected. What the important theme that all should agree on, is the outcomes are useless in the real world.
Indeed! All the life sciences have had to go through their "bleeding" phases to a point where skill becomes well demonstrated. So far no skill has been demonstrated in any area of climate science. Meteorological skill is pretty much limited to weeks forward. The father of AGW, Roger Revelle, stated the science was not ready when he passed away. Nothing has changed as the climate has continued to be uncooperative. Thermo and AGW is currently pretty much relegated to gazing through the rear view mirror at ice conditions. oh oh oh! Hark on the distant backward horizon an iceberg fell off the glacier from our wake! Here is Qori Kalis the glacier that was supposed to be gone by February according to Tstat's favorite climate scientist, Lonnie Thompson, member of the National Academy of Science! The dang thing is growing since the prediction faster than it shrank! 
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Post by thermostat on Aug 4, 2011 3:38:10 GMT
Climate models are trying to project something using some known physics incorporating ideas that are not proven with parameters not proven with forces in play that are not well understood. The results are highly variable, which is to be expected. What the important theme that all should agree on, is the outcomes are useless in the real world.
Indeed! All the life sciences have had to go through their "bleeding" phases to a point where skill becomes well demonstrated. So far no skill has been demonstrated in any area of climate science. Meteorological skill is pretty much limited to weeks forward. The father of AGW, Roger Revelle, stated the science was not ready when he passed away. Nothing has changed as the climate has continued to be uncooperative. Thermo and AGW is currently pretty much relegated to gazing through the rear view mirror at ice conditions. oh oh oh! Hark on the distant backward horizon an iceberg fell off the glacier from our wake! Here is Qori Kalis the glacier that was supposed to be gone by February according to Tstat's favorite climate scientist, Lonnie Thompson, member of the National Academy of Science! The dang thing is growing since the prediction faster than it shrank! icefisher, Whoa! So much anger! Calm down bro! |
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Post by thermostat on Aug 4, 2011 3:44:33 GMT
Climate models are trying to project something using some known physics incorporating ideas that are not proven with parameters not proven with forces in play that are not well understood. The results are highly variable, which is to be expected. What the important theme that all should agree on, is the outcomes are useless in the real world.
Indeed! All the life sciences have had to go through their "bleeding" phases to a point where skill becomes well demonstrated. So far no skill has been demonstrated in any area of climate science. Meteorological skill is pretty much limited to weeks forward. The father of AGW, Roger Revelle, stated the science was not ready when he passed away. Nothing has changed as the climate has continued to be uncooperative. Thermo and AGW is currently pretty much relegated to gazing through the rear view mirror at ice conditions. oh oh oh! Hark on the distant backward horizon an iceberg fell off the glacier from our wake! quote] icefisher, we all got it that you are currently wacked out, but you need to calm down and come back to earth bro. |
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Post by hairball on Aug 4, 2011 22:42:47 GMT
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Post by thermostat on Aug 6, 2011 2:23:42 GMT
This is consistent with their earlier report and with historical observations as posted here. It would not be a big suprise, or historically unusual, if La Nina conditions were to return. Texas hopes this is not to be. |
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