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Post by magellan on Jul 23, 2011 5:16:40 GMT
The trend is obvious. The downward adjustment continues.(compare this to just two months ago) No surprise Iri july enso forecast. Expect a weak to moderate la nina by winter. bro, really? this trend is obvious? The trend you post is all over the map. Have you ever seen IPCC AR4 climate model ensemble graphs? Obvious trend there? |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 23, 2011 5:41:32 GMT
bro, really? this trend is obvious? The trend you post is all over the map. Have you ever seen IPCC AR4 climate model ensemble graphs? Obvious trend there? Magellan, yep, I've seen that ancient history. Magelllan what I have not seen is any credible evidence to support your argument. You can't provide scientific references, that fact is noted. |
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Post by sunsettommy on Jul 23, 2011 14:44:16 GMT
NOAA thinks it will be at neutral and then back into another La-Nina run. No El-Nino for a long while yet. sunsettommy, You are extrapolating beyond what NOAA is saying regarding ENSO www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.htmlThey write, Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012." What I posted was based on the Nino 3.4 SST anomalies forecast. Here is what Joe Bastardi just posted about this: wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/22/bastardi-just-say-no-to-el-nino-at-least-till-2012/#more-43918Bastardi: Just Say No to El Nino, at least till 2012 He is saying that there will be neutral and then back to a La-Nina time.He is also saying that the AMO may turn cold next year as well.A double whammy for the northern hemisphere. In the comment section,Joe tells us that James Hansen is hoping we get another super El-Nino.An admission that he knows that is what warms up the atmosphere.He is admitting that the oceans outflow is what warms up the atmosphere.That it is the main cause for rising temperature trends. He he... |
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Post by magellan on Jul 23, 2011 15:39:31 GMT
Have you ever seen IPCC AR4 climate model ensemble graphs? Obvious trend there? Magellan, yep, I've seen that ancient history. Magelllan what I have not seen is any credible evidence to support your argument. You can't provide scientific references, that fact is noted. IPCC AR4 is no longer relevant? You can't provide scientific references, that fact is noted. So far, I'd estimate 95% of what you post is rhetoric. Here's a scientific reference that's a good place to start, but you said it is garbage or something of the sort? Do you need a manual screw in a light bulb? climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere |
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 24, 2011 16:47:20 GMT
sunsettommy, You are extrapolating beyond what NOAA is saying regarding ENSO www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.htmlThey write, Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012." What I posted was based on the Nino 3.4 SST anomalies forecast. Here is what Joe Bastardi just posted about this: wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/22/bastardi-just-say-no-to-el-nino-at-least-till-2012/#more-43918Bastardi: Just Say No to El Nino, at least till 2012 He is saying that there will be neutral and then back to a La-Nina time.He is also saying that the AMO may turn cold next year as well.A double whammy for the northern hemisphere. In the comment section,Joe tells us that James Hansen is hoping we get another super El-Nino.An admission that he knows that is what warms up the atmosphere.He is admitting that the oceans outflow is what warms up the atmosphere.That it is the main cause for rising temperature trends. He he... That remains to be seen as we are mostly post-ENSO in my estimation. Astronomically, the Earth's climate is headed towards a warmer, drier trend for the next several years. We've seen more than enough precipitation in the 2009-2011 period and that has been because of ENSO. Of course the oceans play a major role as the Earth is 71% water and it is water vapor that constitutes our weather-making atmosphere. I've got 2012 as warmer-than-normal with increasing drought to the extreme causing serious concerns for many southern regions. From what I've seen of astronomic transits of 2013, we've got a mildly wetter, but still warmer year climate-wise with continuing drought concerns that will last for some regions into 2014 before some relief arrives that year. Overall, these are the last six years of solar-forced global warming, so expect a generally warmer than average cycle with unusual and anomalous cold events, which are signs of the global cooling cycle to begin officially later this decade. |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 27, 2011 15:44:43 GMT
I'm not an Astro-Meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV. But it looks like the current La Niña will moderate quickly right up to -0.5 and perhaps even cross the threshold before restrengthening in August or September. So I am officially predicting a double dip La Niña. (Or back to back if you prefer...) That and 4 bucks will get you a crappy coffee at the nearest Starbucks. :-) Ok, Ok, by quickly I mean to say that SSTs in Nino area's 3 and 4 will rise fairly smoothly and peak around late July at say -0.5 +- .15. I expect I will be eating humble pie long before then... I haven't seen that in my astronomic cycle runs. La Nina strengthens through to April/May but we will see signals that indicate that values will trend gradually back to neutral, and this comes in August according to my calculations. We've got a way to go before then, but the coming spring and first half of summer should be cooler than average because of La Nina. Well, I was a little off, it did peak a tiny bit over the high end of my prediction, but the timing was right, and it is starting to look like we will be back in La Nina conditions right on schedule... Astromet, how is your prediction looking? www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.pngHmmm well we did make it back to neutral, so you were half right. Do you still think we won't be back below -.5 by August/September? |
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 29, 2011 5:59:19 GMT
I haven't seen that in my astronomic cycle runs. La Nina strengthens through to April/May but we will see signals that indicate that values will trend gradually back to neutral, and this comes in August according to my calculations. We've got a way to go before then, but the coming spring and first half of summer should be cooler than average because of La Nina. Well, I was a little off, it did peak a tiny bit over the high end of my prediction, but the timing was right, and it is starting to look like we will be back in La Nina conditions right on schedule... Astromet, how is your prediction looking? www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.pngHmmm well we did make it back to neutral, so you were half right. Do you still think we won't be back below -.5 by August/September? This ENSO cycle is basically a done deal Doug. We are on the other side of it. I was the one who forecasted ENSO and I knew when it was also going to end. The Pacific will be back to neutral for the most part going into 2012 however, because of the increased volcanic activity, we can expect cooler atmospheric conditions to persist, particularly in northern climes through this year and into the coming winter of 2012. The southern hemisphere is already in their winter season. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 31, 2011 1:41:49 GMT
What I posted was based on the Nino 3.4 SST anomalies forecast. Here is what Joe Bastardi just posted about this: wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/22/bastardi-just-say-no-to-el-nino-at-least-till-2012/#more-43918Bastardi: Just Say No to El Nino, at least till 2012 He is saying that there will be neutral and then back to a La-Nina time.He is also saying that the AMO may turn cold next year as well.A double whammy for the northern hemisphere. In the comment section,Joe tells us that James Hansen is hoping we get another super El-Nino.An admission that he knows that is what warms up the atmosphere.He is admitting that the oceans outflow is what warms up the atmosphere.That it is the main cause for rising temperature trends. He he... That remains to be seen as we are mostly post-ENSO in my estimation. Astronomically, the Earth's climate is headed towards a warmer, drier trend for the next several years. We've seen more than enough precipitation in the 2009-2011 period and that has been because of ENSO. Of course the oceans play a major role as the Earth is 71% water and it is water vapor that constitutes our weather-making atmosphere. I've got 2012 as warmer-than-normal with increasing drought to the extreme causing serious concerns for many southern regions. From what I've seen of astronomic transits of 2013, we've got a mildly wetter, but still warmer year climate-wise with continuing drought concerns that will last for some regions into 2014 before some relief arrives that year. Overall, these are the last six years of solar-forced global warming, so expect a generally warmer than average cycle with unusual and anomalous cold events, which are signs of the global cooling cycle to begin officially later this decade. Magellan, Your link took me to a dead end, but more importantly, it was not a scientific reference. You need to learn what that means. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 31, 2011 1:50:11 GMT
Well, I was a little off, it did peak a tiny bit over the high end of my prediction, but the timing was right, and it is starting to look like we will be back in La Nina conditions right on schedule... Astromet, how is your prediction looking? www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.pngHmmm well we did make it back to neutral, so you were half right. Do you still think we won't be back below -.5 by August/September? This ENSO cycle is basically a done deal Doug. We are on the other side of it. I was the one who forecasted ENSO and I knew when it was also going to end. The Pacific will be back to neutral for the most part going into 2012 however, because of the increased volcanic activity, we can expect cooler atmospheric conditions to persist, particularly in northern climes through this year and into the coming winter of 2012. The southern hemisphere is already in their winter season. astromet, Actually, the NOAA models are not clear right now about what will happen next and there is a possibility that La Nina conditions will return. This link to recent historical events provides some useful info to consider. www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.htmlNote in particular the most recent historical episode a few years ago where a La Nina came and went and then returned. More generally, one can see how these events come and go in a cyclical manner over time. |
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Post by magellan on Jul 31, 2011 4:35:31 GMT
That remains to be seen as we are mostly post-ENSO in my estimation. Astronomically, the Earth's climate is headed towards a warmer, drier trend for the next several years. We've seen more than enough precipitation in the 2009-2011 period and that has been because of ENSO. Of course the oceans play a major role as the Earth is 71% water and it is water vapor that constitutes our weather-making atmosphere. I've got 2012 as warmer-than-normal with increasing drought to the extreme causing serious concerns for many southern regions. From what I've seen of astronomic transits of 2013, we've got a mildly wetter, but still warmer year climate-wise with continuing drought concerns that will last for some regions into 2014 before some relief arrives that year. Overall, these are the last six years of solar-forced global warming, so expect a generally warmer than average cycle with unusual and anomalous cold events, which are signs of the global cooling cycle to begin officially later this decade. Magellan, Your link took me to a dead end, but more importantly, it was not a scientific reference. You need to learn what that means. What link? Why do you have such a difficult time with using forums? |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 31, 2011 6:27:22 GMT
Magellan, Your link took me to a dead end, but more importantly, it was not a scientific reference. You need to learn what that means. What link? Why do you have such a difficult time with using forums? Magellan, Could you clarfiy your issue? It has the look and feel of a contrived issue, but feel free to elaborate. Be sure to explain why it even matters. |
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Post by icefisher on Jul 31, 2011 16:05:44 GMT
Magellan,
Could you clarfiy your issue? It has the look and feel of a contrived issue, but feel free to elaborate.
Be sure to explain why it even matters.
Seems completely obvious to me. I don't know why you are being so thick headed!
It is obvious he is referring to your post #1747, posted on July 30, 2011 at 8:41pm.
Here you ask Magellan a question about a link.
In these forums the "quote" button is for moving forward the context about which you want to ask a question about. In this post you quoted Astromet who had quoted Sunsettommy. Magellan's link is nowhere to be seen Thermostat!
Why does it matter? In forum communications it is the functional equivalent of an erroneous pronoun reference. Learning to communicate and pronoun references are introduced in grammar school and become an emphasis in high school grammar classes.
The purpose of course is to promote comprehensible communications.
If you don't know what the importance of your grammar school education was maybe you should go back and repeat it.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 2, 2011 2:13:43 GMT
Magellan,
Could you clarfiy your issue? It has the look and feel of a contrived issue, but feel free to elaborate.
Be sure to explain why it even matters.
Seems completely obvious to me. I don't know why you are being so thick headed! It is obvious he is referring to your post #1747, posted on July 30, 2011 at 8:41pm. Here you ask Magellan a question about a link. In these forums the "quote" button is for moving forward the context about which you want to ask a question about. In this post you quoted Astromet who had quoted Sunsettommy. Magellan's link is nowhere to be seen Thermostat! Why does it matter? In forum communications it is the functional equivalent of an erroneous pronoun reference. Learning to communicate and pronoun references are introduced in grammar school and become an emphasis in high school grammar classes. The purpose of course is to promote comprehensible communications. If you don't know what the importance of your grammar school education was maybe you should go back and repeat it. Icefisher. Thank you for that useful clarification. Right now, regarding El Nino/La Nina I think the interesting question is whether La Nina will return shortly, or not. Recent forecasts are all over the map. www.elnino.noaa.gov/ (see below for a quote) but a return to La Nina would be nothing new; www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.html"Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012." |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 2, 2011 3:01:28 GMT
Weather patterns throughout North America are pointing to the return of a La Nina. Weather patterns in South America are pointing in the same direction. That is what the discussion is talking about the ingering effects of the previous La Nina. They are readily observeable.
What this indicates at this late stage, along with the NOAA model, is that a La Nina has an extremelty high probability of returning. The difference between the NOAA model and most other models, which was documented on their web site some time ago, is that NOAA has switched the parameters of their model to a cool phase of the PDO. I believe NOAA is the only one that has done so, and by the success of this model, NOAA demonstrates a more reliable forcast than the combinations of the other models in use.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 2, 2011 4:10:21 GMT
Weather patterns throughout North America are pointing to the return of a La Nina. Weather patterns in South America are pointing in the same direction. That is what the discussion is talking about the ingering effects of the previous La Nina. They are readily observeable. What this indicates at this late stage, along with the NOAA model, is that a La Nina has an extremelty high probability of returning. The difference between the NOAA model and most other models, which was documented on their web site some time ago, is that NOAA has switched the parameters of their model to a cool phase of the PDO. I believe NOAA is the only one that has done so, and by the success of this model, NOAA demonstrates a more reliable forcast than the combinations of the other models in use. Sigurdur, Do you have some useful sources to support your assertions here? Following the standard sources, the next stage of La Nina/El Nino phenomenonon is not nearly as clear as what you describe. Do you have some useful insight? |
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